|
MILC
Payment Rates and Projections |
|||
|
Year |
Boston
Class I |
Payment |
|
|
Actual |
Target |
Rate |
|
|
FY
2011 |
|
|
|
|
October
'10 |
19.83
|
17.39
|
0.0000 |
|
November |
20.49
|
17.64
|
0.0000 |
|
December |
20.21
|
18.05
|
0.0000 |
|
January
'11 |
18.45
|
18.70
|
0.1144 |
|
February |
19.14
|
19.61
|
0.2122 |
|
March |
21.48
|
20.58
|
0.0000 |
|
April |
22.98
|
20.90
|
0.0000 |
|
May |
23.92
|
21.04
|
0.0000 |
|
June |
24.47
|
21.20
|
0.0000 |
|
July |
24.45
|
21.29
|
0.0000 |
|
August |
24.18
|
20.71
|
0.0000 |
|
September |
23.64
|
20.71
|
0.0000 |
|
Projected
from futures as of 2/22/2011 |
|||
2/11/11
From Roger Cryan, Vice President, Milk
Marketing & Economics National Milk Producers Federation.
Projections of both milk prices and feed costs are up substantially
since a month ago, with the Class I price projection rising more than
the feed cost-adjusted MILC target price, so we continue to project no
MILC payments after February.
It now appears that the February MILC rate will be substantially
higher than the January rate, as we had originally projected in
mid-December’s Dairy Market Report. (See last month’s
comments.)
|
MILC
Payment Rates and Projections |
|||
|
Year |
Boston
Class I |
Payment |
|
|
Actual |
Target |
Rate |
|
|
FY
2011 |
|
|
|
|
October
'10 |
19.83
|
17.39
|
0.0000 |
|
November |
20.49
|
17.64
|
0.0000 |
|
December |
20.21
|
18.05
|
0.0000 |
|
January
'11 |
18.45
|
18.70
|
0.1144 |
|
February |
19.14
|
20.68
|
0.6910 |
|
March |
21.95
|
20.95
|
0.0000 |
|
April |
22.88
|
21.28
|
0.0000 |
|
May |
23.43
|
21.43
|
0.0000 |
|
June |
23.83
|
21.60
|
0.0000 |
|
July |
23.97
|
21.70
|
0.0000 |
|
August |
23.77
|
21.23
|
0.0000 |
|
September |
23.43
|
21.23
|
0.0000 |
|
Projected
from futures as of 2/10/2011 |
|||
*********************************************
1/11/11
From Roger Cryan, Vice President, Milk
Marketing & Economics National Milk Producers Federation.
As the January 14th MILC start date decision deadline
approaches, the MILC projections have shifted dramatically since a month
ago. January 10 futures project MILC payments in January and
February of 2011, and no other months in the fiscal year ending with
September. This means that, according to current projections,
payments for a large farm would be maximized with a January start date.
However,
in the first half of December, futures markets were projecting lower
Class I milk prices and lower feed costs for most of 2011, and
specifically, they projected modest MILC payments in January (about 14¢)
and substantially higher payments in the rest of the fiscal year
(starting with 46¢ in February and peaking at 67¢ in June and July).
The
MILC payment is based on the difference between the Boston Class I price
and a feed-cost-adjusted target price. Class IV prices are
projected to be substantially higher than Class III prices, eliminating
projected payments for March through December. This feature of the
program means that even when Class III prices are very low, MILC
payments may be non-existent.
Additionally,
the program is capped at 2.985 million pounds per year per producer.
Producers larger than this are allowed to choose a start date for the
production to which the payments are applied, but they must choose it in
advance. USDA requires that they choose their start date by the 14th
of the month before the month they pick. This means that none of
the prices that enter the MILC calculation are known for months which
may still be chosen. In previous years, futures markets forecasts
were relatively successful in predicting optimal start months.
However, the recent dramatic shift in markets has put large farmers
relying on December futures forecasts at a considerable disadvantage.
Here
are the most current MILC projections, showing the only payments in the
current fiscal year occurring for January and February. Remember,
these could change again as dramatically as they have in the last month:
|
MILC
Payment Rates and Projections |
|||
|
Year |
Boston
Class I |
Payment |
|
|
Actual |
Target |
Rate |
|
|
FY
2011 |
|
|
|
|
October
'10 |
19.83
|
17.39
|
0.0000 |
|
November |
20.49
|
17.64
|
0.0000 |
|
December |
20.21
|
18.04
|
0.0000 |
|
January
'11 |
18.45
|
19.65
|
0.5394 |
|
February |
19.47
|
19.87
|
0.0842 |
|
March |
20.51
|
20.04
|
0.0000 |
|
April |
21.07
|
20.27
|
0.0000 |
|
May |
21.28
|
20.36
|
0.0000 |
|
June |
21.33
|
20.48
|
0.0000 |
|
July |
21.32
|
20.51
|
0.0000 |
|
August |
21.28
|
20.09
|
0.0000 |
|
September |
21.22
|
20.03
|
0.0000 |
|
Projected
from futures as of 1/10/2011 |
|||
11/16/10
From Roger Cryan, Vice President, Milk
Marketing & Economics National Milk Producers Federation.
We have made some improvements in projecting alfalfa prices, which
should provide a fairer projection of MILC payments over the next two
years.
Larger
producers trying to determine when to pull the trigger on their MILC
payments should figure out how many months of production will exhaust
their cap, then bracket the highest payment rates with those months.
Remember, though, that what is presented below are only projections
which can and will change.
|
MILC
Payment Rates and Projections |
|||
|
Year |
Boston
Class I |
Payment |
|
|
Actual |
Target |
Rate |
|
|
FY
2010 |
|
|
|
|
October
'09 |
15.60
|
16.94
|
0.6030 |
|
November |
16.11
|
16.94
|
0.3735 |
|
December |
17.24
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
January
'10 |
18.28
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
February |
18.09
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
March |
17.59
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
April |
16.47
|
16.94
|
0.2115 |
|
May |
17.05
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
June |
18.53
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
July |
18.91
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
August |
19.02
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
September |
18.75
|
17.04
|
0.0000 |
|
FY
2011 |
|
|
|
|
October
'10 |
19.83
|
17.82
|
0.0000 |
|
November |
20.51
|
18.85
|
0.0000 |
|
December |
20.33
|
18.76
|
0.0000 |
|
January
'11 |
18.92
|
19.15
|
0.0999 |
|
February |
17.93
|
19.35
|
0.6401 |
|
March |
17.69
|
19.51
|
0.8189 |
|
April |
17.73
|
19.68
|
0.8811 |
|
May |
17.61
|
19.75
|
0.9622 |
|
June |
17.67
|
19.83
|
0.9697 |
|
July |
17.78
|
19.85
|
0.9305 |
|
August |
18.21
|
19.45
|
0.5560 |
|
September |
18.51
|
19.37
|
0.3849 |
|
FY
2012 |
|
|
|
|
October
'11 |
18.73
|
19.07
|
0.1519 |
|
November |
18.85
|
19.03
|
0.0830 |
|
December |
18.85
|
19.00
|
0.0641 |
|
January
'12 |
18.68
|
19.03
|
0.1548 |
|
February |
18.26
|
19.01
|
0.3408 |
|
March |
18.21
|
19.01
|
0.3604 |
|
April |
18.25
|
19.05
|
0.3567 |
|
May |
18.43
|
19.06
|
0.2841 |
|
June |
18.47
|
19.11
|
0.2873 |
|
July |
18.72
|
19.12
|
0.1803 |
|
August |
18.85
|
18.82
|
0.0000 |
|
September |
18.88
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
Projected
from futures as of 11/15/2010 |
|||
Class I mover announced this morning at
$16.58; Boston Class I is $19.83, so no payment expected for October,
barring continued dramatic run up in current feed costs.
Payments are now projected for February
2011 through June 2012.
See more on prices and feed costs in the Dairy Market Report, coming out shortly.
|
MILC
Payment Rates and Projections |
|||
|
Year |
Boston
Class I |
Payment |
|
|
Actual |
Target |
Rate |
|
|
FY
2010 |
|
|
|
|
October
'09 |
15.60
|
16.94
|
0.6030 |
|
November |
16.11
|
16.94
|
0.3735 |
|
December |
17.24
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
January
'10 |
18.28
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
February |
18.09
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
March |
17.59
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
April |
16.47
|
16.94
|
0.2115 |
|
May |
17.05
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
June |
18.53
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
July |
18.91
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
August |
19.02
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
September |
18.75
|
18.26
|
0.0000 |
|
FY
2011 |
|
|
|
|
October
'10 |
19.83
|
18.66
|
0.0000 |
|
November |
20.17
|
18.66
|
0.0000 |
|
December |
19.52
|
18.67
|
0.0000 |
|
January
'11 |
18.85
|
18.85
|
0.0000 |
|
February |
18.20
|
18.86
|
0.2942 |
|
March |
17.93
|
18.86
|
0.4166 |
|
April |
17.86
|
18.93
|
0.4812 |
|
May |
17.68
|
18.93
|
0.5641 |
|
June |
17.67
|
18.99
|
0.5944 |
|
July |
17.39
|
18.99
|
0.7177 |
|
August |
17.62
|
18.60
|
0.4383 |
|
September |
17.98
|
18.58
|
0.2676 |
|
FY
2012 |
|
|
|
|
October
'11 |
18.22
|
18.31
|
0.0386 |
|
November |
18.10
|
18.31
|
0.0932 |
|
December |
18.12
|
18.31
|
0.0886 |
|
January
'12 |
18.09
|
18.42
|
0.1466 |
|
February |
18.01
|
18.42
|
0.1874 |
|
March |
18.17
|
18.42
|
0.1136 |
|
April |
18.25
|
18.47
|
0.0987 |
|
May |
18.43
|
18.47
|
0.0201 |
|
June |
18.47
|
18.54
|
0.0317 |
|
July |
18.72
|
18.54
|
0.0000 |
|
August |
18.85
|
18.36
|
0.0000 |
|
September |
18.88
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
Projections
based on futures as of 9/16/2010 |
|||
8/30/10 From Roger Cryan, Vice President, Milk Marketing & Economics National Milk Producers Federation.
Projected MILC payments are up for the six months beginning with
April 2011, projected to average 22¢ per cwt. This is based
primarily on rising feed cost projections, and projects to about $120
million in MILC payments for FY 2011.
Fiscal Year 2010 ends September 30. MILC payments are
limited to 2,985,000 pounds of milk per operation per fiscal year.
For producers large enough to worry about this limit, their deadline to
choose their start month for FY 2011 is coming up.
The highest payments for FY 2010 were in October; so most capped
producers chose October as their start date last year. Any farmer
who wants to change that for FY 2011 will have to file a new start date
with the Farm Service Agency by September 14th. Months
with no payment rate don’t count against the cap; but if October is
your start month, payments will begin with the first month for which
there is a payment rate.
This does not have to be a final decision, though. Producers
can change their start date as often as they’d like, as long as they
do so by the 14th of a month that is before both the start
month on file and the start month they want to change to.
For example, a farmer can go to the FSA office by September 14,
and choose May 2011 as his start month for FY 2011. Then, if the
markets shift, and it looks like he can get larger payments by starting
with March, he can change to March, as long as he does so by February
14. If he wants to change to July, he must do so by April 14.
For more information, see the materials on USDA’s MILC page,
including the fact sheet (attached).
USDA/FSA MILC page: http://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/webapp?area=home&subject=prsu&topic=mpp-mi
MILC fact sheet: http://www.fsa.usda.gov/Internet/FSA_File/milc2008.pdf.
|
MILC
Payment Rates and Projections |
|||
|
Year |
Boston
Class I |
Payment |
|
|
Actual |
Target |
Rate |
|
|
FY
2010 |
|
|
|
|
October
'09 |
15.60
|
16.94
|
0.6030 |
|
November |
16.11
|
16.94
|
0.3735 |
|
December |
17.24
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
January
'10 |
18.28
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
February |
18.09
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
March |
17.59
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
April |
16.47
|
16.94
|
0.2115 |
|
May |
17.05
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
June |
18.53
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
July |
18.91
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
August |
19.02
|
17.69
|
0.0000 |
|
September |
18.75
|
17.64
|
0.0000 |
|
FY
2011 |
|
|
|
|
October
'10 |
19.90
|
17.87
|
0.0000 |
|
November |
20.31
|
17.87
|
0.0000 |
|
December |
19.74
|
17.88
|
0.0000 |
|
January
'11 |
19.07
|
18.06
|
0.0000 |
|
February |
18.45
|
18.07
|
0.0000 |
|
March |
18.13
|
18.07
|
0.0000 |
|
April |
17.95
|
18.17
|
0.0984 |
|
May |
17.69
|
18.17
|
0.2157 |
|
June |
17.52
|
18.26
|
0.3327 |
|
July |
17.42
|
18.26
|
0.3773 |
|
August |
17.66
|
18.09
|
0.1943 |
|
September |
17.91
|
18.08
|
0.0764 |
|
FY
2012 |
|
|
|
|
October
'11 |
18.10
|
17.93
|
0.0000 |
|
November |
18.14
|
17.93
|
0.0000 |
|
December |
18.14
|
17.94
|
0.0000 |
|
January
'12 |
18.16
|
18.08
|
0.0000 |
|
February |
18.24
|
18.08
|
0.0000 |
|
March |
18.35
|
18.08
|
0.0000 |
|
April |
18.37
|
18.15
|
0.0000 |
|
May |
18.45
|
18.15
|
0.0000 |
|
June |
18.47
|
18.21
|
0.0000 |
|
July |
18.80
|
18.21
|
0.0000 |
|
August |
18.88
|
17.99
|
0.0000 |
|
September |
|
16.94
|
|
|
Projections
based on futures as of 8/30/2010 |
|||
8/12/10
From Roger Cryan, Vice President, Milk
Marketing & Economics
National Milk Producers Federation.
Modest MILC payments are projected for next spring and summer, when
milk-feed margins are projected to get very tight, according to the
futures markets.
These projected payments are up slightly from a week ago due to
higher feed futures and despite slightly higher dairy futures.
MILC payments remain unlikely through 2010, though, as dairy
markets are expected to stay strong through the holiday buying season as
the result of very low export-depleted butter stocks, and new strength
in export markets.
|
MILC
Payment Rates and Projections |
|||
|
Year |
Boston
Class I |
Payment |
|
|
Actual |
Target |
Rate |
|
|
FY
2010 |
|
|
|
|
October
'09 |
15.60
|
16.94
|
0.6030 |
|
November |
16.11
|
16.94
|
0.3735 |
|
December |
17.24
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
January
'10 |
18.28
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
February |
18.09
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
March |
17.59
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
April |
16.47
|
16.94
|
0.2115 |
|
May |
17.05
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
June |
18.53
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
July |
18.91
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
August |
19.02
|
17.42
|
0.0000 |
|
September |
19.06
|
17.38
|
0.0000 |
|
FY
2011 |
|
|
|
|
October
'10 |
19.21
|
17.60
|
0.0000 |
|
November |
19.27
|
17.60
|
0.0000 |
|
December |
19.09
|
17.61
|
0.0000 |
|
January
'11 |
18.57
|
17.79
|
0.0000 |
|
February |
17.97
|
17.79
|
0.0000 |
|
March |
17.78
|
17.79
|
0.0053 |
|
April |
17.73
|
17.90
|
0.0757 |
|
May |
17.80
|
17.90
|
0.0438 |
|
June |
17.71
|
17.99
|
0.1285 |
|
July |
17.71
|
17.99
|
0.1274 |
|
August |
17.92
|
17.89
|
0.0000 |
|
September |
18.11
|
17.87
|
0.0000 |
|
FY
2012 |
|
|
|
|
October
'11 |
18.32
|
17.80
|
0.0000 |
|
November |
18.37
|
17.80
|
0.0000 |
|
December |
18.37
|
17.81
|
0.0000 |
|
January
'12 |
18.37
|
17.95
|
0.0000 |
|
February |
18.34
|
17.95
|
0.0000 |
|
March |
18.36
|
17.95
|
0.0000 |
|
April |
18.37
|
18.04
|
0.0000 |
|
May |
18.45
|
18.04
|
0.0000 |
|
June |
18.47
|
18.12
|
0.0000 |
|
July |
18.80
|
18.12
|
0.0000 |
|
August |
18.88
|
17.90
|
0.0000 |
|
September |
|
16.94
|
|
|
Projections
based on futures as of 8/12/2010 |
|||
7/1/10
From Roger Cryan, Vice President, Milk
Marketing & Economics
National Milk Producers Federation.
Corn and soybean futures rose
this week in response to the USDA plantings report, which projects corn
plantings about 1½% lower than the industry had anticipated. Near corn
futures rose more than 10% in two days. These higher feed price
projections also raise the projected MILC Boston Class I target price in
2011 and 2012.
Nevertheless, MILC payments still
are projected to be zero over the next two years.
|
MILC
Payment Rates and Projections |
|||
|
Year |
Boston
Class I |
Payment |
|
|
Actual |
Target |
Rate |
|
|
FY
2010 |
|
|
|
|
October
'09 |
15.60
|
16.94
|
0.6030 |
|
November |
16.11
|
16.94
|
0.3735 |
|
December |
17.24
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
January
'10 |
18.28
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
February |
18.09
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
March |
17.59
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
April |
16.47
|
16.94
|
0.2115 |
|
May |
17.05
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
June |
18.53
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
July |
18.91
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
August |
18.82
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
September |
18.54
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
FY
2011 |
|
|
|
|
October
'10 |
18.46
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
November |
18.48
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
December |
18.33
|
16.94
|
0.0000 |
|
January
'11 |
18.18
|
17.09
|
0.0000 |
|
February |
18.02
|
17.10
|
0.0000 |
|
March |
17.91
|
17.10
|
0.0000 |
|
April |
18.00
|
17.22
|
0.0000 |
|
May |
| ||