April 2009 Archived Dairy News
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Milk Feed Ratio Up Slightly
MILC Payment Rates and Projections
Raw Milk Sales Should Not Be Allowed Across State Lines
Committee
says it's safe to let more 'raw' milk flow
DIBS
address issues facing dairy producers dealing with milk
prices
Dairy Market Report
for April 2009
Milk
Prices in Three Categories Expected to Climb
Clearing
the Air on Smog: Cows vs. Cars
Four-State
Dairy Conference Slated for Mid-June
West
Texas dairy herd infected
Farmer,
Milk Hauler Charged in Cheese Plant Sales Scheme
Group
wants Rosendale Dairy permit reconsidered
Recession
Takes Toll on Dairy Farming
Animal
science students excited about Australian trip
Clara
Belle the cow visits Cram Elementary School
O'Connor
High student's cow artwork vies for $20000 prize
Sen.
Johanns Speaks to Farm Broadcasters
UK:
'Dairy summit' over milk concerns
Women
in ag: A success story in Afghanistan
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Refuel With Chocolate Milk message catching on in a big way
MPCA:
Excel Dairy must clean up its act
Proximity
to dairy could pause B&B plans
Proposed
animal gas tax revisited because of EPA finding
Dairy
farmers see decline in revenue, production stays steady
Dairy's
Slow Slog to Recovery
Pfizer Animal Health Introduces
SolidBac®For Convenient Pinkeye Protection
Brady
Core selected as the 2009 recipient of the Fred Stout
Experience Award
Ag
Consultants to Meet in Nashville
UK:
Dairy farmers stage milk protest
New
Zealand: Dairy industry sees glimmer of recovery
Statement
from the National Pork Board on Swine Influenza
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
The
new version of the Specter-Casey Dairy Bill S889 is ready to
go
Market Analysis with Bob Cropp
Economy
prompts dairy herd dispersal
Ew,
that smell: Dairy upsets neighbors, health officials
OSU
researchers use pedometers to measure cow happiness
RFID-enabled
system moo-ves dairy farming into the future
Farmers,
consumers, store owners fight raw milk ban
Tension
Builds Between Organic Dairy Farmers And Processors
The
grass is always greener
Cow
Genome Research Provides Clues to Evolution
Scores
of youths left dairy farms for employment
Cashton
Student Wins Guernsey Calf Essay Contest
Milking
on the way to class: Club hosts event to learn about dairy
Fonterra
Sells Stake in India Venture to Britannia
Robotic Milkers: It's Milking Time All Day Long In Underwood
Australia's
second robotic dairy starts milking
Robotic
dairy specially modified
UK:
Large Herd Seminar moves to the South West
Monday, April 27, 2009
Western
United Dairymen Update
Milk
Producers Council Update
Specter,
Casey team up in effort to help dairy farmers
DMI Update
Glimmer
of hope for dairy producers
Conn.
dairy owners making their own house calls
Bank
liquidation a blow to Greeley
'Mooving'
experience
Falling
milk prices hurting dairy farmers
Economy
is taking its toll on Vermont's farmers
Riding
out the storm
Amish
Dairy Farmer Welcomes Amazing Natural Technology
Car
dealership enrolls in "Cow Power" program
WI:
State's milk production increases for March
Kansas
Governor Vetoes Hormone-Free Milk Labeling Bill
Cow
smooch so rewarding
Family
keeps dairy farm, traditions alive
Friday, April 24, 2009
Dairy Markets Weekly Recap
UC
Davis-led Research Consortium Explores Milk Genome
Cow
genome mapping could have 'big impact'
Related
National Dairy Leaders Meet in Denver
Preliminary Tests
Indicate Cattle TB Infection in Texas Dairy
MILC Payment Rates and Projections
Six
breeds judged at Spring Dairy Expo
Cattle
Feed Byproducts: Experience & Education Enhance
Nutrient...
Sebelius
Vetoes Milk Labeling Measure
Spring
2009 AI Bull Census available online
Cow
exit plan holds currency
Farmers:
Help Us Keep Milk Flowing
A
losing proposition: Farmer sells his dairy cows
July
1 is Deadline to Apply for National Jersey Youth
Scholarships
Thune:
‘Cow tax' closer to reality
New White
Paper Examines Role of Ag Innovations in Meeting World Food
Crisis
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Dairy Leaders Meet in Denver
Choosing
A Mineral Supplement For Your Dairy Cows
Dairy
herd retirement program draws high interest
Humboldt
Creamery's disorder was allegedly hidden for years
Cross
Country: Holsteins, camaraderie on display at big spring
show
Dairy
farms in danger
Low
milk prices draw protests
Moo-ve
over
New
farmers alliance champions raw milk
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Don't give up on the export market
Johnson
says timing isn't right for dairy legislation
California
moves to nip tail docking
Dairy
farmers come to Capitol to talk about low milk prices
Producers
Selling Cows As Dairy Prices Struggle
Michigan
sets deadline for dairy to pay $223,500 fines
The
‘crop' of this creamery comes from grass-fed herd
Milk
Does a Planet Good
Milk:
One of Mother Earth's oldest foods
Mary
Paige McGuirk dies at 88
Irvin
named Dairy Princess
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Latest Cold Storage Data
Market Analysis with Brian Gould
From
the Big Apple to
Plans
in the works for large dairy research farm
Animal
Agriculture Producers to Benefit from New National Johne’s
Disease...
Dairy
farmers caught in dire economic squeeze
With
Much at Stake, Dairy Processors Urged to Attend Washington
...
Genome
Sequence Sheds Light on Ruminant Evolution
4-H
members compete in Dairy Bowl
MCGA:
Dairy Farmers Find Value In Ethanol Co-Product
Ad
explains smell of spring (and manure)
Cows
that pass less gas? Researchers hope so
Senators
Denounce Environment Protection Agency Proposed Findings
Meadow
Gold closing changes landscape for dairy farmers
Q&A
with Carl Rennell, co-owner of Maggie Moo's
Candidates
being sought for St. Lawrence dairy court
Fonterra
enters Egypt with new partnership with Arab Dairy
American
Dairy annual net income up to $30.09m
Monday, April 20, 2009
Plans
in the works for large dairy research farm
Land
O'Lakes to close Madison Dairy
Country
Fresh dairy in Flint to close after 80 years in business
Lincoln
Dairy Closing
Dairy
Liquidation Leads Cow Slaughter
Lock
City Dairies ponders move from bottles to bags
Manure
leak at dairy operation in NW Iowa
Experts
help dairies milk what they've got with cost-cutting tips
Ag
Day to feature UD's own ice cream
Dairy
industry sees less-gassy future for cows
North
Dakota milk production down in first quarter
DMI Update
Friday, April 17, 2009
March Milk Production down 0.2 Percent
Dairy Markets Weekly RecapMay Federal Order Class I Price Up 61 Cents
While The Trade Picture Isn't Pretty, The News is Better for U.S. Dairy Consumers
Interest
High IN CWT Herd Retirement Program
TSCRA:
Cattle Theft Bill Passes Texas State Senate
Help
for Vermont Farmers
Related
Area
farmers have a friend and partner in Quist; MN Outstanding
...
Cases
14, 15 don't change BSE risk level: CFIA
Protest
over EU milk prices
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Latest Dairy Outlook
Officials Discuss Changes in TB Eradication Program
Land
O'Lakes to close Madison Dairy
Longtime
Frazee dairy farmers sell out
Montrose
dairy must abide by conditions after illness outbreak
Lawmakers
ask feds to aid dairy farms
Wisconsin
Farm Bureau Federation®AG Wire
Feeding
for pounds of fat and protein: That's all you are paid for
Editorial:
Think ahead to farm show
Milk
glut hurts California dairy finances
You
need cows that are worth owning
A
quick history lesson in cheesemaking
Southland
students fare well during District FFA contests
From
the farm to you
Name
the Agricultural & Industrial Museum's cow
No
Spilt Milk For Danone
American
Dairy Reports 2008 Financial Results
Fonterra
looks to buy up Sanlu leftovers
Cattle
getting lame from NSW floods
Milk
farmers furious at litre price cut by Glanbia to 20c
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Market Discussion with Dave Kruzawski
Guest Editorial: New
dairy bill is ready to go
Montrose
dairy must abide by conditions after illness outbreak
Coopersville
is 'ecstatic' about powdered milk operation pegged ...
Balance
is important in Deutmeyer's farming operation
Quality,
sustainability drives local dairy farmer
Dairy
Industry Is Hoping To Reduce Methane Gas Produced By Dairy
Cows
It's
milking time all day long on Johanson's Underwood farm
Kansas
complicating the labeling of dairy products
KY
Milk Hauler Award nominations now open
Nick
and Tara Meyer are Good Farm Neighbors
Agriculture
Left Out of Obama Cuba Policy
USDA
jumps in to help food producers
Newsmaker
Q&A: Raw milk dairy farmer Bill Coutu
Milk
recording should be retained
Automated
heat detection brings savings
McNallan
Farm knows a thing or two about winning yield contests
Irish
farmers protest at Glanbia milk price cuts
Milk
Link selling cheese to China
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
The Market Does Turn Around....Eventually
Landmark
welfare case up to WTO?
Stater
Bros. Markets to sell Santee Dairies to Dean Foods
Dairy
cow of future may pass less gas, HFR, WI
Mail in Your Ballot
for the WMMB Elections
Experts
help dairies milk what they've got with cost-cutting tips
Community
raising stink over cow farm
Tulare
cow births four; three survive
Borden
Gives the Dairy Case a Fresh Look
Milk
man making a comeback
NIAA Annual Meeting:
Speakers Hit Mark, Consensus Results in Resolutions
Dairy
farmers take a hit from a drop in milk prices
American
Dairy Association donates milk to Indiana food banks
Monday, April 13, 2009
Farm
bureau member visits Washington
Cheese-maker
makes farmers an offer
Milk
hauler says dairy fund will avert extinction
Economic
crisis imperils dairy farms
Country
faces shortage of large-animal veterinarians
Declining
dairy prices costly to West Michigan farmers
Farmland
is disappearing in Waukesha County, and statewide
Farm
program looks to future
Challenging Year For U.S. Dairy Exporters
Iowa
State House Rally Poster
MILC Payment Rates and Projections
Western
United Dairymen Update
Milk
Producers Council Update
This Week in Dairy Profit Weekly
New
Tool Reveals Avoided Impacts Linked to Organic Milk
Production
Mo.
House backs tax break for dairy farmers
Veto
urged on Kan. milk labeling bill
Milk
business going sour?
Cattle
Outlook: Beef And Dairy Cow Slaughter Up
World
Dairy Expo Announces New Staff
CA:
Dairy Producers begin 2009 search for Royalty
Scotland:
Fluffy forage boosts profit margins
Australia:
Jersey milk an udder delight
Friday, April 10, 2009
Producer-Handler Debate Illustrates How The Dairy Industry Has Changed
Dairy Farmers Plan Rally Tuesday in Des Moines
Iowa State
House Rally Poster
Dairy Markets Weekly Recap
MILC
Checks to Dairy Farmers Further Delayed
Mo.
House backs tax break for dairy farmers
Low
prices hurting dairy farmers
WASDE:
Milk Production Forecasts Down, Price Estimates Up
Friday, April 10, 2009
Dairy Markets Weekly Recap
MILC Checks to Dairy Farmers Further Delayed
Mo. House backs tax break for dairy farmers
Low prices hurting dairy farmers
WASDE: Milk Production Forecasts Down, Price Estimates Up
Thursday, April 9, 2009
California Class 1 Milk Prices Moving Higher
Milk Production Estimate Lowered for 5th Month in a Row
Hearing on Modifying Producer-Handler Provision in Federal Order Milk Markets
Amid
milk price turmoil, dairy owners consider getting out
Dairy
Tax Credit Could Save Dying Dairy Industry
Federal
lawmakers use recess to pay visit to constituents
Carolina
farmers scramble in late-season cold snap
CO:
Bacterial illness linked to dairy
Spring
Dairy Carousel opens at Fairgrounds
Tulare
schools Pleasant, Mission Valley and Kohn to get visit from
...
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Dairy Product Demand is Good
Some
dairy operations urged to pay into price pool
Wisconsin
dairy plants plan $781M in investments
Mo.
House approves tax credits for dairy producers
Dairy
producers seek answers to economic crisisSenator
talks of military, dairy issues
AABP
Partners with
Holmes
County dairy producers awarded at banquet
Salinas-area
dairy industry seeks its 2009 princess
Tulare
high school farm gets new dairy barn
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Positive News From Dairy Products Report
Some
dairy operations urged to pay into price pool
Sens.
Specter and Casey preparing to re-introduce dairy bill
Northeast
Farmers continue opposition of milk pricing
Milk
bill smells sour to some dairy producers
Holstein Association
USA Board Holds Spring Meeting
South
Dakota Dairy Farmers Look to Bright Future
Northey
says Iowa Ag Department may see furloughs
Applications
Invited for National Stocker Award
Monday, April 6, 2009
DMI Update
Pfizer
Vet Visit - Foot Rot
Milk Producers Council Weekly Update
IND
Dairy Tech's cow breeding technology expands
Canadian-style...
Low
Dairy Prices Trigger Payments To Milk Producers
Dairy
co-op faces lawsuit
OKC
area Domino's Pizza partners with local dairy farmers
Friday, April 3, 2009
February Dairy Products Report
Cash Dairy Markets Weekly Recap
March Class III Price Gains $1.13
It's a little early to get excited about field work
News
for Dairy Co-Ops
USDA's
Release of Surplus Dairy Products Being Applauded
Milk
co-op reports loss
After
89 years Norz-Hill Farm sells their dairy cows
Foremost
sells two plants to Dean Foods
Morning
Glory dairy plant in Ashwaubenon sold to Dean Foods
KLA:
Herd Retirement Self-Funded By Dairy Industry
Targeting
the best semen at the most fertiile
Making
slurry pay: Anaerobic digester provides a new simple
solution
Herd
lameness timebomb to stun masses?
Cross
Country: Farm Show draws a big crowd -- and not just farmers
Cow
goes to school at Welch
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Federal Order Milk Price Projected To Jump $1.16
Mid-Week Milk Production Update
CWT will conduct its seventh herd removal
Cover All the Bases to
Maximize Dairy Reproduction
CAFO
opponents gain input
Aubertine
Calls for Bipartisan Effort for Dairy Farmers
Conference
addresses important dairy management issues
Dairy
Cattle: Do Silage Inoculants Survive The Ensiling Process?
Council
approves backyard livestock
Australia:
Cow sell-off increases
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
California March Class 4 Prices Announced
Dairy
Leader Calls for Consistent Nutrition Standards in Schools
CWT
Announces Herd Retirement
The School Lunchroom Has Changed Since We Were There
Dairy Market Report -
Roger Cryan, NMPF
Vilsack
open to animal ID but wants to allay fears
Bill
proposes changes on dairy labels
Dairy
farmers get break
Young Leaders of the
Dairy Industry Compete at 2009 NAIDC
Dairy Checkoff
Update - March 2009
Lifeway
Foods Reports 4th Quarter and Twelve Months Ended December
...
Report:
Colorado remains nation's No. 15 dairy state
Report:
Vt. ranks No. 16 in nation's milk production statistics
State's
Only Organic Feed Mill Closing
Got
milk? Not anymore
Future
Proofing New Zealand’s Dairy Cows
4-H
teaches responsibility
Milk Feed Ratio Up Slightly
MILC
Payment Rates and Projections
Feed futures are down again, cutting the projected target
prices.
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MILC Payment Rates and Projections |
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Year |
Boston Class I |
Payment |
|
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|
|
Actual |
Target |
Rate |
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|
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FY 2009 |
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|
|
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|
|
October '08 |
18.78 |
18.48 |
0.0000 |
|
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November |
20.58 |
18.10 |
0.0000 |
|
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|
|
December |
18.68 |
17.76 |
0.0000 |
|
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|
|
January '09 |
18.99 |
17.98 |
0.0000 |
|
|
|
|
February |
13.97 |
17.33 |
1.5135 |
|
|
|
|
March |
12.68 |
17.23 |
2.0487 |
|
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April |
13.61 |
16.94 |
1.4985 |
|
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|
|
May |
14.22 |
16.94 |
1.2240 |
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June |
13.68 |
16.94 |
1.4692 |
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July |
14.02 |
16.94 |
1.3132 |
|
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August |
15.26 |
16.94 |
0.7551 |
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September |
16.64 |
16.94 |
0.1334 |
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FY 2010 |
|
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October '09 |
17.54 |
17.03 |
0.0000 |
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November |
18.15 |
17.03 |
0.0000 |
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December |
18.27 |
17.04 |
0.0000 |
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January '10 |
18.27 |
17.23 |
0.0000 |
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February |
18.36 |
17.23 |
0.0000 |
|
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|
|
March |
18.43 |
17.23 |
0.0000 |
|
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|
April |
18.58 |
17.36 |
0.0000 |
|
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May |
18.79 |
17.36 |
0.0000 |
|
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|
June |
18.83 |
17.48 |
0.0000 |
|
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July |
19.08 |
17.48 |
0.0000 |
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August |
19.57 |
17.41 |
0.0000 |
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September |
20.09 |
17.40 |
0.0000 |
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Projections based on futures as of 4/28/2009 |
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(April
30, 2009) The 32nd National Conference on Interstate
Milk Shipments (NCIMS) was held April 17-22 in Orlando and
National Milk’s Director of Regulatory Affairs, Jamie Jonker,
reported one of the topics in Thursday’s DairyLine,
namely a proposal for the NCIMS to support the allowance of raw
milk sales across state lines.
“The
NCIMS and the Pasteurized Milk Ordinance that comes out of it,
are about milk safety of Grade A products,” Jonker said.
“The conference felt that it (the proposal) would send the
wrong message,” so it was defeated. He likened it to
“playing defense,” and said that allowing raw milk sales
across state lines “would have a negative impact on the
industry.”
Advocates,
almost with religious fervor, view raw milk as a natural elixir
and believe we are hurting consumers by limiting access to raw
milk but Jonker counters, “Data shows conclusively that
pasteurization really is what we need to do to ensure the safety
of our milk products for the American consumer.”
“Milk provides a great nutritious product for everyone in the U.S.,” he said, “But raw milk can have issues leading to illness and when we look at data from the CDC (Center for Disease Control) we see that states that have allowed sales of raw milk at some point of time over the past 10-15 years they’re more likely to have outbreaks due to raw milk consumption.” Pasteurization is almost a “silver bullet,” he concluded, “that makes milk safe for everyone to consume.”
April
Federal order milk prices are announced Friday morning. Downes-O’Neill
dairy economist, Bill Brooks, predicts the Class III price
will hit $10.76 per hundredweight. That would be a gain of 32
cents from March but would be $6 below April 2008. He looks
for the Class IV price to come in at $9.84. That would be a 20
cent gain from March but $4.72 below a year ago. We will post
official prices here as soon as possible.
(April 29, 2009) Over the last few years, more Americans have started to recognize exercise as a critical component of a healthy lifestyle. The International Dairy Foods Association’s, Miranda Robertson, reported in Wednesday’s “Processor’s Perspective” program that this trend “creates a huge opportunity to expand demand for milk, simply by promoting its sports recovery benefits.”
The “Refuel With Chocolate Milk” message is catching on in a big way, according to Robertson. High school, college and even professional athletes are reaching for chocolate milk after exercise, she said. “It's a smart sports drink with nine essential nutrients not found in most traditional sports drinks.”
To boost awareness of milk’s recovery benefits and help consumers see milk in this new light, the Milk Processor Education Program (MILKPEP) and Dairy Management Inc have teamed up to support three new studies, which will add to the body of research supporting chocolate milk as a post-exercise beverage.
“The new research will help us understand more about how chocolate milk may affect muscle and post-exercise recovery,” Robertson said. These studies from top research institutions look at the benefits of drinking chocolate milk compared to traditional sports drinks for different types of athletes or non-athletes, she said.
The MILKPEP is taking milk’s
recovery message directly to moms. Twelve-time Olympian
medalist, mother & author, Dara Torres, is the newest face
of the milk mustache campaign.
She is the ideal spokesperson to deliver milk’s
recovery message to moms, Robertson said. Dara unveiled her new
milk mustache ad at a recent press conference and shared her
secret training weapon and key to her killer abs: chocolate
milk. Her ad will run in Fitness,
Women's Health, Time,
Newsweek, People,
Shape, and Women's
Day to name a few. To learn more about “Refuel for
Moms,” www.visitwhymilk.com
and for more information on the teen program, visit www.bodybymilk.com
(April
28, 2009) Cheese trading at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange
started the week with a slip as the blocks lost a half-cent and
barrels were down three quarters of a cent despite some positive
perception from last week’s Cold
Storage report and the March Milk
Production report prior to that. News of a possible swine
flu pandemic was raising havoc in many commodity markets
according to some insiders.
Dr.
Robert Cropp, Emeritus Professor at the University of Wisconsin
at Madison, said in Tuesday’s DairyLine
that he hadn’t thought of that and wasn’t sure why swine flu
news would affect dairy markets.
As
to why cheese prices remain so weak, Cropp said that February
cheese output was fairly strong and it’s strong seasonally. He
has heard reports that many plants are full and stocks are
ample. The March 31 report had American stocks up 6.8 percent
from a year ago and total cheese was up over 8 percent.
On
the other hand, Cropp pointed out that milk production is
slipping, according to the March report, and California output
was off 3 percent, a “significant amount,” but he sees
cheese prices remaining close to current levels for a while as
we “clean out some stocks but as we move through the summer
and early fall, I think you’re going to see some comeback.”
Buyers
aren’t building a lot of inventory and are taking advantage of
the low prices as they need cheese but he sees strength
returning in June, July, and August. Don’t expect $2.00
cheese, he cautioned, but $1.30-$1.40 seems like a “reasonable
number,” he said.
He
does not expect cheese prices to fall to the government support
level and product moving to government warehouses unless the
price falls well below support so as to make it economically
feasible to sell to Uncle Sam. We’re close to it on the
barrels, he admitted, but he doesn’t expect cheese to move to
the government.
(April
27, 2009) California dairy producer and Dairy Management
Incorporated board member, Kimberly Clauss, talked about the
concept of sustainability in Monday’s “DMI Update.” It was
an interview recorded at the recent World Ag Expo in Tulare and
Clauss pointed out that sustainability is something dairy
farmers practice in their everyday life; economically, socially,
and environmentally.
Economically,
she said they may practice sustainability by changing the type
of pump they use to a variable speed.
Environmentally
they may reuse milk cooling water to wash cows and flush their
barns and then irrigate it on the fields.
Socially,
dairy farms employ people from the surrounding communities and
they provide nutrient-rich dairy products to consumers.
“When
you look at it that way, sustainability isn’t so bad,”
Clauss said, and the Dairy Innovation Center is working on
projects to spur more of this. She encouraged listeners to
participate in the “Life Cycle Analysis,” a random survey
being taken across the U.S., with the goal of 1,000 dairy
producers participating to determine what dairy’s true carbon
footprint is.
“I don’t know what my carbon footprint is for our dairy operation,” Clauss admitted, “And I’m sure most dairymen don’t actually know that so we need to find out what that is.”
(April
24, 2009) The block cheese price closed Friday at $1.18 per
pound, up a penny on the week but 74 1/2-cents below a year ago.
Barrel closed at $1.1075, down a quarter-cent on the week, and
77 1/4-cents below a year ago. Twenty nine cars of block traded
hands on the week and 13 of barrel. The NASS U.S. average block
price hit $1.2771, down 0.1 cent, while barrel averaged $1.2495,
down 4.9 cents.
Butter
strengthened, likely due to weather-inspired ice cream demand,
closing Friday at $1.2225, up 2 cents on the week, but still 19
cents below a year ago. Twenty two cars were sold. NASS butter
averaged $1.1737, up 1.6 cents.
Cash
Grade A nonfat dry milk inched up a penny and a half, to 86 1/2 cents
per pound. Fifteen cars traded hands on the week. Extra Grade
remained at 85 cents, with no activity.
NASS nonfat dry milk averaged 81.95 cents, down 0.1 cent, and dry whey averaged 20.15 cents, up 0.8 cent.
National
Dairy Leaders Meet in Denver
Dairy
Profit Weekly
editor, Dave Natzke, also attended the National Dairy Leaders
conference this week in Denver and reported Friday that the
economy and its impact on farmers’ milk prices was on
everybody’s mind. He said there still seems to be some
“shock” among producers on how quickly and how far milk
prices have fallen.
Many
western dairy farmers he talked with said that, at current milk
prices, they were losing up to $3 per cow per day, or nearly
$100,000 per month, for each 1,000 cows.
Regionally,
Natzke reported that there was concern over the recent collapse
of the New Frontier Bank of Greeley, which some estimated
provided financing for up to one-third of the dairy cows in
Colorado and adjoining states.
“Despite
the economic situation, producers and other dairy leaders were
engaged in many other issues affecting their businesses,”
Natzke said, “A good sign that they do see a future in the
dairy industry.”
Updating
DairyLine listeners
on recent developments in the ongoing rbST-free debate; Natzke
reported that a U.S. district judge has denied an injunction
sought by the International Dairy Foods Association and Organic
Trade Association to block implementation of Ohio’s milk
labeling rule that restricts use of "rbST-free" or
"hormone-free" labels, ruling that such labels are
misleading. Similar labeling legislation was approved in Kansas,
and awaits the governor’s decision.
Meanwhile,
the Oregon Physicians for Social Responsibility, which opposes
use of recombinant bovine somatotropin, said more than half of
the nation’s 100 largest dairy processors have completely or
partially discontinued accepting milk from cows supplemented
with rbST.
In
contrast, Natzke reported on a study involving milk processing
company executives and consumers which concluded that the dairy
industry may have overreacted and acted too quickly in
prohibiting rbST use by their dairy farmer suppliers. The report
said the shift to “rbST-free
milk” was driven by a small percentage of consumers and
yielded minimal consumer response, according to Natzke, and most
executives said they would not make the decision again.
|
MILC Payment Rates and Projections |
|
||||
|
|
Year |
Boston Class I |
Payment |
|
|
|
|
Actual |
Target |
Rate |
|
|
|
|
FY 2009 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
October '08 |
18.78 |
18.48 |
0.0000 |
|
|
|
November |
20.58 |
18.10 |
0.0000 |
|
|
|
December |
18.68 |
17.76 |
0.0000 |
|
|
|
January '09 |
18.99 |
17.98 |
0.0000 |
|
|
|
February |
13.97 |
17.33 |
1.5135 |
|
|
|
March |
12.68 |
17.23 |
2.0487 |
|
|
|
April |
13.61 |
16.94 |
1.4985 |
|
|
|
May |
14.22 |
16.94 |
1.2240 |
|
|
|
June |
13.68 |
16.94 |
1.4692 |
|
|
|
July |
14.29 |
16.94 |
1.1911 |
|
|
|
August |
15.71 |
17.04 |
0.5975 |
|
|
|
September |
17.06 |
17.01 |
0.0000 |
|
|
|
FY 2010 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
October '09 |
17.93 |
17.16 |
0.0000 |
|
|
|
November |
18.47 |
17.16 |
0.0000 |
|
|
|
December |
18.57 |
17.16 |
0.0000 |
|
|
|
January '10 |
18.58 |
17.35 |
0.0000 |
|
|
|
February |
18.68 |
17.35 |
0.0000 |
|
|
|
March |
18.77 |
17.35 |
0.0000 |
|
|
|
April |
18.82 |
17.47 |
0.0000 |
|
|
|
May |
19.05 |
17.47 |
0.0000 |
|
|
|
June |
19.14 |
17.59 |
0.0000 |
|
|
|
July |
19.22 |
17.59 |
0.0000 |
|
|
|
August |
19.57 |
17.51 |
0.0000 |
|
|
|
September |
20.09 |
17.50 |
0.0000 |
|
|
|
Projections based on futures as of 4/23/2009 |
|
|||
Roger
Cryan, Vice
President, Milk Marketing & Economics
National Milk Producers Federation
Dairy
Leaders Meet in Denver
The
National Dairy Leaders conference was held this week in Denver.
National Milk’s Chris Galen reported highlights in
Thursday’s broadcast. He said the meeting is held every two
years in different locations around the country and involved
people active in cooperatives, processors, and promotional
organizations to sit down and discuss the current issues facing
the dairy industry.
“This
was certainly a critical time for dairy leaders to be
meeting,” Galen said, “given the gravity of the economic
problems facing, not just the dairy industry, but the overall
economy.”
One
of the main panels addressed forecasts of where the dairy
economy is going in 2009 and, to a person, “There wasn’t a
lot of optimism that this is something that’s going to resolve
itself quickly,” Galen said. “There is light at the end of
the tunnel but it’s not going to be something that’s going
to happen in a month or two and, because there are so many other
sectors of the economy that are hurting, financing, banking,
real estate, autos, all those things globally will have to get
resolved until we can really see a really strong reaction in
dairy markets.”
A
number of other challenges were addressed at the conference.
Immigration reform was one, he said, and whether Congress will
pass some form of comprehensive package that will address the
labor situation on dairy farms.
Animal
welfare is another issue, with all of the increasing pressure it
puts on livestock operators around the country, as well as
climate change and whether that presents a threat or opportunity
or both to livestock operators who will be targeted as sources
of green house gas emissions.
“The
economy was the big story,” he said, “But, there’s
certainly a lot of other big ticket items that we have to
contend with going forward.”
When
asked if the CWT program came up, Galen replied, “CWT only
briefly came up because people are aware that they can submit
bids now, if they chose to, they have about another 10 days in
which to postmark a bid and send it in.
“Anecdotally,
from what we heard around the room,” Galen concluded, “There
are people who know people who are planning on bidding so we do
expect quite a bit of interest in CWT and we’ll see how the
bids come in as we get towards May.”
Dryer
praised the New Zealand’s announcement Monday that it had sold
about 160,000 metric tons of nonfat dry milk to China. It was
probably at a “fire sale price,” he admitted, “But it
means the inventory moved out and is not hanging over the market
so there’s some opportunity for prices to begin firming up.”
Dryer
also reported that a large U.S. cheese manufacturer will begin
producing Gouda cheese and Gouda is what the world market wants,
he said. World cheese supplies are not in the great abundance
that butter and nonfat dry milk supplies have been, according to
Dryer.
Dryer
admonished U.S. manufacturers to produce what the world market
wants. “The best defense is a good offense,” he said,
“We’re dropping the ball there.”
A
lot of people are grumbling about growing imports of milk
protein concentrate and butter blends, according to Dryer, but
both of them can be produced and should be produced in the U.S.,
he argued.
Some
production has come on line, he admitted, but “We need to be
producing the products the U.S. market wants as well. That’s
the best way to prevent some of that imported product from
coming into the U.S. Make the product here.”
Dryer
says the government price support program is partly responsible
for that not happening. The government is a guaranteed market
for nonfat dry milk, for example, he said, and, if you can’t
sell it anywhere else you can always sell it to the government.
If
a company produces milk protein concentrate and can’t find a
buyer, they have a problem, Dryer concluded, and “That has
limited some of the innovation and competitiveness and sense of
adventure that we should have had among manufacturers in the
U.S.”
The American cheese inventory for March stood at 561.7 million pounds, unchanged from February, but 35.7 million pounds or 7 percent above a year ago. February American cheese stocks were revised down 17.3 million pounds.
Total cheese stocks amounted to 892.5 million pounds, up 2 percent or 17.4 million pounds from February, and up 68.2 million pounds or 8 percent from a year ago. February total cheese stocks were revised down 17.8 million pounds.
Market Analysis with Brian Gould(April
21, 2009) The cash dairy markets showed little reaction to what
could have been perceived as a bullish production report. The
University of Wisconsin’s Dr. Brian Gould said in Tuesday’s DairyLine
that the market was neutral in its response because the report
was what the market had expected, yet he thought it surprising,
being as this was the first down turn in production since June
2004.
He
said the drop was a result of per cow output being down and a
drop in cow numbers but he believes revisions will show an even
larger drop in cow numbers.
He
also pointed to the regional variation in milk output from the
impact of current low milk prices. He cited California’s,
Idaho’s, and New York’s drop and Wisconsin and Minnesota’s
increase. Texas and New Mexico also registered increases, he
said, and it’s “interesting as to who is being impacted by
current prices. The Upper Midwest seems to be weathering this
storm quite nicely.”
But Gould warned that last week’s Dairy Market News shows that the heavy culling that we have seen result from the CWT herd removals and the higher feed costs appears to be leveling out and the decline in milk output may not hold.
DMI Update
(April
20, 2009) California dairy producer and DMI board member, Steve
Maddox, was back on Monday’s “DMI Update” in a recorded
interview from February’s World Ag Expo in Tulare, said he has
been on the board for about two years and has served 19 years on
the California Dairies board, a cooperative that handles 43
percent of the state’s milk supply.
He
said he and his family are dedicated to helping the industry
because it has given them so much, a lifestyle to raise a family
on certainly not done for the money and you love the cows and
the industry as a whole is like a big fraternity that tries to
help one another.
Maddox
has seen a lot of ups and downs in the dairy industry but
admitted that this down swing is the worst he has ever seen and,
while milk prices have been this low or lower in the past, they
were coupled with lower input costs but that is not the
situation right now, with corn at record highs mainly due to
ethanol mandates etc. plus there’s a liquidity crisis, and
high energy prices so it’s not feasible for dairymen to pay
their bills.
DMI
and the National Dairy Board can’t get too political, Maddox
admitted, and they leave that to the individual cooperative
boards but the two boards are made up of dairy producers so they
feel the pain and it’s drastic when you income is 40 percent
less than the cost of production.
“We have to look at the long term,” he said, “And try to encourage demand because we’re out of balance in supply and demand and things like Domino’s new pizzas that use 40 percent more cheese or working with McDonalds, or working with the protein and energy drinks, trying to get more dairy products used will tighten up that surplus and hopefully push up prices so we’re closer in the black.”
|
State by State |
Milk Cows
|
Output Per Cow
|
Milk Production
|
|
Arizona |
+4,000 |
-100 lbs. |
-2.5% |
|
California |
-20,000 |
-55 lbs. |
-3.8% |
|
Colorado |
+2,000 |
+35 lbs. |
+3.3% |
|
Florida |
-4,000 |
+25 lbs. |
-2.0% |
|
Idaho |
+9,000 |
-75 lbs. |
-2.4% |
|
Illinois |
Unchanged |
+35 lbs. |
+2.4% |
|
Indiana |
+1,000 |
+50 lbs. |
+3.5% |
|
Iowa |
-1,000 |
Unchanged |
-0.5% |
|
Kansas |
+7,000 |
+30 lbs. |
+7.8% |
|
Michigan |
+9,000 |
-20 lbs. |
+3.7% |
|
Minnesota |
+5,000 |
+15 lbs. |
+2.0% |
|
Missouri |
-2,000 |
+20 lbs. |
Unchanged |
|
New Mexico |
-7,000 |
+120 lbs. |
+3.8% |
|
New York |
-3,000 |
-20 lbs. |
-1.7% |
|
Ohio |
-3,000 |
+30 lbs. |
+0.7% |
|
Oregon |
Unchanged |
-5 lbs. |
-0.5% |
|
Pennsylvania |
+1,000 |
-10 lbs. |
-0.3% |
|
Texas |
+22,000 |
+50 lbs. |
+8.4% |
|
Utah |
Unchanged |
Unchanged . |
Unchanged |
|
Vermont |
-3,000 |
-35 lbs. |
-4.5% |
|
Virginia |
-1,000 |
Unchanged |
-1.3% |
|
Washington |
-6,000 |
-30 lbs. |
-4.1% |
|
Wisconsin |
+5,000 |
+25 lbs. |
+1.9% |
|
23 State Total |
+15,000 |
-6 lbs. |
-0.2% |
Butter closed at $1.2025, down a quarter-cent on the week and 19 cents below a year ago. Eight cars were sold on the week. NASS butter averaged $1.1575, down 1.3 cents. NASS nonfat dry milk averaged 82.03, up 0.4 cent, and dry whey averaged 19.31 cents, up 1.5 cents.
May
Federal Order Class I Price Up 61 Cents
(April 17, 2009) The May
Federal order Class I base price was announced this morning by
USDA at $10.97 per hundredweight, up 61 cents from
April but $5.65 below May 2008. This is the price that each
individual order adds its local Class I differential to, to
determine its Class I milk price. The 2009 base average is now
$11.44, down from $18.51 a year ago and $11.71 in 2007.
The Class III advanced pricing factor was the “higher of” in determining the Class I value and the Milk Income Loss Contract (MILC) payment to producers will be a minimum of $1.22, according to National Milk’s Roger Cryan, who adds that the feed cost adjustor could be an additional 0-2 cents, but he not making a projection at this time..
The NASS-surveyed butter price averaged $1.1640 per pound, up 4.3 cents from April. Nonfat dry milk averaged 81.81 cents, up from 81.52 cents. Cheese averaged $1.3030, up 4.85 cents, and dry whey averaged 18.52 cents, up 2.2 cents from April.
|
|
May 2009 | Apr 2009 | March 2009 |
| Class I Base | $10.97/cwt. | $10.36/cwt. | $9.43/cwt. |
|
*The Base Skim Milk Class I: |
$7.01/cwt. | $6.56/cwt. | $5.81/cwt. |
|
Class III skim: |
$7.01/cwt. | $6.56/cwt. | $5.57/cwt. |
|
Class IV skim: |
$5.79/cwt. | $5.77/cwt. | $5.81/cwt. |
|
**Butterfat |
$1.2019/lb. | $1.1500/lb. | $1.0918/lb. |
|
Class II Skim price: |
$6.49/cwt. | $6.47/cwt. | $6.51/cwt. |
|
Class II NFS price: |
$0.7211/lb. | $0.7189/lb. | $0.7233/lb. |
2-week Product Price Averages:
|
|
May 2009 | Apr 2009 | March 2009 |
|
Butter |
$1.1640/lb. | $1.1211/lb. | $1.6517/lb. |
|
NFDM |
$1.8181/lb. | $0.8152/lb. | $0.8617/lb. |
|
Cheese |
$1.3030/lb. | $1.2545/lb. | $1.7420/lb. |
|
Dry Whey |
$0.1852/lb | $0.1632/lb. | $1.1896/lb. |
February
exports, valued at $160 million, declined 9 percent from January
and are down more than 55 percent from a year ago. Meanwhile,
February imports, valued at $259 million, were up more than 10
percent from January and February 2008. After a dairy trade
surplus of $1 billion in fiscal year 2008, the U.S. now has had
five consecutive months of dairy trade deficits.
While
the trade picture isn't very pretty, Natzke said the news is
better for U.S. dairy product consumers. According to Bureau of
Labor’s Consumer Price Index data for March, retail dairy
prices were down 2.4 percent compared to February and 3
percent less than a year ago.
Fluid
whole milk prices were down about 6 percent from February, and
nearly 15 percent from a year ago. Cheese, butter and ice cream
prices were all down compared to last month, but up slightly
from March 2008.
Natzke
also reported news on the controversial National Animal
Identification System (NAIS), a centralized registry system
designed to identify livestock premises and individual animals
in event of an animal disease outbreak.
One
of the concerns of farmers has been how the information would be
used, especially if it got into the hands of animal activists.
In a ruling earlier this month, U.S. District Court Judge Emmet
Sullivan denied public access to NAIS data.
Attorney and freelance writer Mary-Louise Zanoni had filed suit against USDA, seeking a Freedom of Information Act request to view program records.
Interest
is high in cwt’s latest herd removal, according to a press
release yesterday. details are posted
here.
(April
16, 2009) Milk production is forecast to decline in 2009 on the
basis of smaller herd size and a scant yield increase over 2008,
according to the Agriculture Department’s latest Livestock,
Dairy and Poultry Outlook issued this morning. The Outlook
says domestic demand may have stabilized at a lower level and
some export interest remains in dry products. Prices were raised
slightly from last month.
Above-normal
levels of commercial cow slaughter thus far in 2009 are a
continuation of above-normal beef cow slaughter that began in
the first half of 2006, when dry conditions held sway over large
portions of the Central, Mountain, and Southeastern United
States.
Beef
cow slaughter has been influenced by intermittent drought in the
West, Plains, and Southeastern United States since 1996.
In
addition, beef cattle prices have declined since 2005 and feed
costs, while down significantly from their peaks, have been high
since dry conditions and rapidly expanding ethanol production
sparked grain price increases in late 2006.
Dairy
cow slaughter surged ahead of year-earlier levels for the third
month in a row in February, aided in part by the sixth
Cooperatives Working Together (CWT) buyout since 2003, which
removed over 50,000 cows from the dairy herd, mostly in the
first quarter of 2009. According to recent Livestock
Slaughter reports, dairy cow slaughter had moved ahead of
year-earlier levels for much of 2008. The liquidation has been
especially notable in the mountain western states.
For
the country as a whole, slaughter was 17 percent above
year-earlier levels in February, 19 percent in January, and 12
percent in December. However, by region, slaughter exceeded
year-earlier levels by 46 percent in December and 118 percent in
January for region six, which includes New Mexico, Oklahoma, and
Texas. January and February slaughter exceeded year-earlier
levels by 83 and 49 percent, respectively, in region ten, which
includes Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. Other regions also
recorded double-digit increases in cow slaughter.
Although
The CWT program is expected to remove additional cows from the
herd by this summer, these data suggest that herd liquidation is
well underway. The liquidation appears to be strongest in those
regions that expanded most rapidly in the last few years. USDA
forecasts that the dairy herd will contract to an average 9.2
million cows in 2009, compared with 9.3 million in 2008.
The
contraction is expected to continue throughout the year; by the
fourth quarter of 2009, the number of dairy cows will likely
average about 300 thousand fewer than those on hand in the
fourth quarter of 2008.
Expected corn and soybean meal prices have been revised upward from earlier forecasts. Higher feed costs will likely continue to pressure producer profits. Milk per cow will climb only incrementally in response to poor producer returns. The yield increase is expected to be less than one-half of 1 percent this year, adjusting for leap-year, continuing the trend toward smaller year-over-year increases that began in 2006. The outcome from these adjustments is a decline in milk production in 2009 to 187.1 billion pounds from 190.0 billion pounds in 2008.
Officials
Discuss Changes in TB Eradication Program
(April 16, 2009) National Milk
and the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA)
leadership met Wednesday with USDA officials to discuss changes
they would like to see in the Agriculture Department’s bovine
tuberculosis (TB) eradication program. National Milk’s Jamie
Jonker, said the meeting was a follow up to a joint letter to
USDA last fall from NMPF and NCBA on the need to update the
program.
Jonker reported that there are two unique TB issues to deal with today. Producers in Michigan and Minnesota face endemic wildlife populations infected with TB and it has appeared in the Southwest in strains that are consistent with those in Mexico. The recent TB discovery in California is a case in point, he said.
“We need to modernize our TB eradication program to reflect the realities of the low levels of TB that we have in the U.S.,” Jonker said, “And the unique issues that we have with TB in wildlife populations in one area and strains that are of foreign origin in another area.”
One of the recommendations NMPF is calling for is to develop and implement improved diagnostic tests. We’re still using the skin fold test that has been around for a very long period of time, he said, and we need to have a test that is more accurate and easier to do on live cattle.
We also need to look at
changing feeder cattle practices to reduce exposure of breeding
cattle to cattle of Mexican origin.
Thirdly, Jonker said we need to look at what we can do to reduce TB in wildlife, such as developing an effective vaccination. If you look at what we have done with rabies vaccination in wildlife in some areas, perhaps we can do similar things for TB in wildlife populations.
(April 15, 2009) We continued Tuesday's dairy market discussion on Wednesday with Downes-O’Neill dairy broker, Dave Kurzawski, and ask about the charges that have been made that the system is broke, that the markets are being manipulated, and that imports are raising havoc with domestic markets. How much is reason and how much is emotion?
Kurzawski responded, “The bulk is emotion right now.” He recalled how just a short while ago it was buyers of milk and cheese who were making the same complaints. The past two years they were paying a $2 plus per pound cheese price and they were making the same cries.
“It doesn’t mean it’s (the cries) not warranted,” he said, “But it does mean it’s probably more emotion than anything else and so long as we believe in the dairy industry and we believe that dairy products are good and that they’ll be around, the market will fix itself.”
How will that happen? Kurzawski said the market will adjust and he believes grain prices will come down and input costs will lessen as “they have been over valued for too long.”
He added that a bull market is best when it’s demand driven, not supply driven. “The buyers of feed in this country are going through a very difficult time right now and that’s going to come through in price on that feed, if not this month, in the very short future,” he said, “And as a result, I think you’re going to see a situation where producers who have gone through three or four or five months of just being completely backwards in the market, come into an area where they will have profitable levels.”
Regarding the import question and the fact that the U.S. is really a milk deficit nation that does not produce enough of its own milk to meet its needs; Kurzawski doesn’t see imports as “the big game in town.”
He recalled how six or seven years ago imports of milk protein concentrate was “a very big deal,” but the U.S. eventually became a net dairy exporter so “these things ebb and flow,” he said, and he doesn’t see imports as detrimental to the dairy industry as some others do. The big question, according to Kurzawski, is when will export demand start to pick back up. “It will,” he concluded, “It’s just a matter of when and that’s the bigger question right now.”
(April 14, 2009) Cheese prices continued to slip Monday, further discouraging farmers whose milk check hinge on those prices. Downes-O’Neill dairy economist, Bill Brooks, said in Tuesday’s DairyLine that, while it’s not much comfort, the market always does turn around eventually, but there’s been a lot of pain felt by producers.
Cheese is like a lot of other commodities, he said. “We’re chasing a declining demand base and we just haven’t reduced our supplies enough to match up with that.” Cheese is purchased when the buyers see good value, according to Brooks, and “That value is in the upper teens to the low $1.20s.”
Thankfully, prices haven’t plunged to the $1.04 bottom seen in January, Brooks said, and we’ve seen the market move up 10, 15, or 20 cents, but then we hit a “tipping point” and “That value that folks were looking for goes away and now unfortunately we’re seasonally outside of a good demand period, in between Easter and the unofficial start of summer on Memorial Day, and a lot of product has probably already been put away for that.”
He assures us the market will rebound but there’s likely more pain before that happens and trading will likely take place in a range of $1.15-$1.35 per pound until we get into the summer months, demand picks up seasonally, and supplies slow down.
Friday’s March Milk Production report will attract attention, according to Brooks, especially the cow numbers to see if they dropped like they did in January. He’s not sure that will happen, given the slowdown in slaughter that we have seen, but people will be looking for more visible signs of a slowdown in milk production. Some hope it will be below a year and he admits that’s possible, but more than likely it will still be slightly above last year’s level.
(April 13, 2009) 2009 will be a challenging year for U.S. dairy exporters but some suppliers are still finding success, according to the U.S. Dairy Export Council’s (USDEC) Margaret Speich. Speaking in Monday’s “DMI Update, Speich reported that, in some cases, sales have continued despite the difficult conditions, thanks to USDEC programs designed to build long-term demand.
For instance, South Korea is one market where U.S. dairy has enjoyed recent success. Last year, U.S. cheese exports to South Korea increased 56 percent, to almost 29 million pounds, Speich reported, and it has become our second-largest export market for cheese.
Last fall, we scored a success with string cheese, she said. A Korean cheese importer introduced U.S. string cheese in two of the nation’s largest convenience-store chains. After initial success, two more large chains added the product. As a result, U.S. string cheese quickly became the second-largest selling dairy product in the entire Korean c-store channel, according to Speich.
“This success didn’t come by accident,” Speich warned. “USDEC and the U.S. cheese supplier had built a relationship with the Korean importer over several years. The buyer had built a profitable business selling U.S. cream cheese to Korean bakeries and just a year earlier they had introduced single-serve cream cheese packs in convenience stores.”
“It was this long-term
relationship with both USDEC and the cheese maker that was key
to getting the string cheese project off the ground,” she
concluded.
This
Week in Dairy Profit Weekly
1) Outlook: USDA’s Ag
Supply and Demand Estimates report lowers the 2009 milk
production forecast to 187.8 billion lbs., and raises the 2009
milk price forecast 50¢-60¢/cwt., with an average price of
$11.85-$12.35/cwt. USDA forecasts a Class
2)
3) rbST: A 44-page opinion and
order by U.S. District Judge James Graham, issued on April 3,
details a decision denying an injunction sought by the
International Dairy Foods Association and Organic Trade
Association regarding an
4) Federal orders: USDA
will hold a national public hearing, May 4, in
MILC
Payment Rates and Projections
(April 9, 2009) Here is
the MILC projections, updated through the end of this week.
Feed prices are up, which is raising the
MILC target over the next several months.
If these increases
continue, they could have a substantial impact on the MILC rate
through the spring.
MILC
Payment Rates and Projections
Year
Boston Class I Payment
Actual
Target Rate
FY
2009
October
'08 18.78
18.48 0.0000
November
20.58 18.10
0.0000
December
18.68 17.76
0.0000
January
'09 18.99
17.98 0.0000
February
13.97 17.33
1.5135
March
12.68 17.23
2.0487
April
13.61 17.00
1.5263
May
13.93 16.94
1.3526
June
14.08 17.04
1.3298
July
14.76 17.04
1.0222
August
15.84 17.17
0.5989
September
17.19 17.14
0.0000
FY
2010
October
'09 18.00
17.31 0.0000
November
18.34 17.31
0.0000
December
18.40 17.32
0.0000
January
'10 18.38
17.50 0.0000
February
18.41 17.50
0.0000
March
18.42 17.50
0.0000
April
18.42 17.62
0.0000
May
18.78 17.62
0.0000
June
19.01 17.72
0.0000
July
19.08 17.72
0.0000
August
19.57 17.66
0.0000
September
20.09 17.65
0.0000
Projections
based on futures as of 4/9/2009
Roger Cryan,Vice
President, Milk Marketing & Economics
National Milk Producers Federation
Producer-Handler
Debate Illustrates How The Dairy Industry Has Changed
(April 10, 2009) Commenting on the announced hearing
regarding the producer handler status in Federal orders, Dairy
Profit Weekly editor, Dave Natzke, said in his weekly Friday
report that the debate “illustrates is how the dairy industry
has changed.”
Decades ago, a producer-handler was like his grandfather
who milked 25 cows and had a door-to-door milk-delivery
business. A majority of today’s producer-handlers are still
relatively small, Natzke said, but USDA estimates the average
business handles about 1.4 million pounds, or about 163,000
gallons of milk, per month.
“While producer-handlers face additional business risks,
because they essentially buy milk from themselves,” Natzke
reasoned, “They can avoid paying the federal order Class I
differential, which, depending on location, can range anywhere
from $1.70-$3.60 per hundredweight. That's
money not shared by farmers regulated by the federal order
system.”
Also brought to light in this debate, according to Natzke, are
2008 Farm Bill requirements to speed up the federal order
rule-making process. There have been times when USDA has taken a
long time, in some cases years, to act on federal order
proposals. National Milk petitioned USDA for producer-handler
changes in late January, so the rule-making process appears to
be on a relatively fast track, Natzke said.
Meanwhile; with high input costs and low milk prices, it's been
a rough economic stretch for dairy farmers, Natzke said.
However, USDA’s latest World
Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report “provides a
small glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel.”
Citing the recently announced Cooperatives Working Together herd
retirement program and other herd liquidations due to poor
economic conditions, USDA lowered its 2009 forecast for both cow
numbers and total milk production.
With less production, USDA raised its milk price forecast
50-60 cents per hundredweight. The latest forecast puts the
average price at between $11.85 and $12.35 per hundredweight,
which would be at least $6 less than the 2008 average.
USDA forecasts a Class III milk price average $10.65-11.15/cwt.,
while the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Class III futures price
average as of April 8 was about $12.57.
Dairy Farmers Plan Rally Tuesday in Des Moines
(April 10, 2009) Dairy
farmers in Des Moines, Iowa will stage a grassroots rally to
call attention to financially-struggling producers across the
country.
Dairy Markets Weekly
Recap
(April 10, 2009) The cash dairy markets were mixed in the Good Friday holiday
shortened week. Block cheese closed Thursday at $1.2350 per pound, down 4
1/2-cents on the week, and 60 cents below a year ago. Barrel closed at $1.17,
down 9 cents on the week and 58 cents below a year ago. Twenty one cars of block
traded hands on the week and 17 of barrel.
Cash butter strengthened, likely driven by last minute Easter/Passover demand,
and closed Thursday at $1.2050, up 2 1/2-cents on the week, but still 18
1/2-cents below a year ago. Nineteen cars were sold.
Milk Production Estimate Lowered for 5th Month
in a Row
(April 9, 2009) The
Agriculture Department has lowered its milk production estimate
for the fifth month in a row. Department bean counters, in this
morning's World Agriculture Supply & Demand Estimate
report, now project 2009 output to be 187.8 billion pounds, down
from 188.5 billion projected a month ago. 2006 output was 190
billion.
Cow
numbers for 2009 were lowered as producers are expected to
“liquidate herds in response to poor returns.” It suggests
that the recently announced CWT herd removal will encourage a
more rapid reduction in cow numbers.
Milk
per cow growth has slowed from last month, according to USDA,
also reflecting poor returns. Import forecasts were unchanged
from last month however commercial exports were lowered due to
reduced butter exports. Government price support removal
projections were also reduced as “strengthening prices through
the year will result in lower sales to the CCC.”
Milk
price estimates were raised for 2009. The Class III benchmark is
now projected to average $10.65-$11.15 per hundredweight, up
from $10.05-$10.65 projected a month ago. That’s still a long
ways from the 2008 average of $17.44. The Class IV price is
projected at a range of $9.95-$10.55, up from $9.50-$10.20
expected a month ago, and compares to $14.65 in 2008.
Hearing
on Modifying Producer-Handler Provision in Federal Order Milk
Markets
(April 8, 2009) The Agriculture Department will hold a
hearing requested by National Milk and the International Dairy
Foods Association to consider modifying the producer-handler
provision in Federal order milk markets.
NMPF's Chris Galen reported in Thursdays DairyLine
that, as dairy farms have grown, some have begun to bottle their
own milk and those plants have grown so large that they resemble
privately owned but commercial operations. He warned that they
have the potential to disrupt orderly milk marketing orders,
particularly because they don't have to pay into the Class I
pool that other handlers have to pay into so they're reducing
the blend price paid to other dairy farmers and, at the same
time, take markets away from, in many cases, farmer-owned
bottling operations.
USDA will consider a variety of proposals at a May 4
hearing in Cincinnati so this is good news, according to Galen,
because, given the trends in the dairy industry regardless of
the fact that prices are low right now, but given the fact that
we could certainly see more producer-handlers in the future, we
feel that the largest of them, and these regulations would only
affect a handful of the very largest producer-handlers, the
largest of them need to be regulated in the same way that we
have minimum pricing and pooling regulations applied to bottling
plants of the same size.
Another story out of Washington concerned the Food and
Drug Administrations 60-day delay in implementing the so-called
enhanced BSE feed ban. This regulation would make it much harder
for renderers to dispose of dead stock because of concern that
those animals could transmit BSE.
Were already seeing the rendering options for cattle
producers in a variety of places around the country being
limited, Galen charged.
NMPF has complained to the FDA about this and their
response was to give another 60 days before the regulation
becomes final but Galen said It doesn't look like the FDA has
any kind of acknowledgement or recognition that the real problem
is that you cant easily dispose of a 1400 pound animal, whether
its composting, burying, burning, this delay of two months just
kicks the can down the road but it doesn't
necessarily get at the heart of the issue which is, if
you cant render
these very large cattle, how do you dispose of them in an
environmentally sensitive manner.
Reporting in Wednesday's DairyLine,
Dryer said food service sales are very good. There are signs
that the restaurant business is lagging because of the
recession, he admitted, but the cheese friendly side of the
restaurant business is doing pretty well, such as the McDonalds,
Hardys, and Carls Juniors of the world and, while same store
sales are below a year ago, they're still selling less expensive
items off their value menus which are full of cheese.
Dairy exports are also down, he said, but not as much as a
lot of people expected and Dryer expects recovery as the year
progresses.
Retail cheese sales are very strong, according to Dryer,
and for the three months of December, January, and February,
natural cheese sales were up 4.4 percent from a year ago as more
people spend more time eating at home.
This has also helped fluid milk sales and Dryer reports
that retailers have aggressively promoted fluid milk and, in
this kind of economy, cheese moves to the center of the plate.
You have a grilled cheese sandwich or macaroni and cheese or
other casseroles with cheese so its good for demand.
The category that's struggling is pizza and Dryer
explained that pizza people haven't been very innovative or
aggressive for a couple of years now. DMI has a cooperative
effort with Dominos new line of pizza that has 40 percent more
cheese on it, Dryer said, and hopefully that works well but
there has to be some support for that and its going to take a
little time to change peoples minds because they're so used to
getting mediocre pizza from a lot of the chains.
Positive
News From Dairy Products Report
That bid did not reappear on Monday and she said the
return to a more normal price spread between block and barrels
may be having a calming influence on the market. She looks for
trading to remain in a narrow range the next two weeks
Ledman sees some positive news in Fridays Dairy
Products report. American type cheese output had been
running four to almost 6 percent above the previous year,
through 2008.
January 2009 output was up 5.8 percent from a year ago
but February output was virtually unchanged from February
2008, she said, So we've definitely seen a slowdown in
American cheese production, specifically Cheddar cheese, which
is what's traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Cheddar
output in February was down almost 1 percent from a year ago,
according to Ledman, adjusted for leap day.
When asked if milk was going into butter/powder
production, Ledman answered, it doesn't appear that way.
Powder production, adjusted for leap day, was down 0.8 percent
from a year ago, she said, so she expects that USDA will
either revise down its February milk production estimate or
revise the Dairy
Product report data next month.
(April
6, 2009) California dairy producer and Dairy Management
Incorporated board member, Steve Maddox, was back on Monday's
DMI Update and discussed check off sponsored export market
development. The program aids in developing dairy products that
are more in line with what overseas consumers want and, in the
desired packages, according to Maddox, and through the U.S.
Dairy Export Council (USDEC) we are able to educate and
facilitate U.S. processors in developing those products.
The
effort was so successful that 97 percent of 2007 exports were
unsubsidized, according to Maddox. Prior to that, almost 100
percent had to be subsidized, he said, and in 2008, 11 percent
of U.S. milk production went to exports.
Things
are slower this year, he admitted, but We have our foot in the
door, foreign consumers want our products, but right now, with
the financial crisis, they're trying to find the money to buy
them, but they still want us there.
We
have to learn how to deal with that, he said, and We have to
further develop those markets so were there, day in and day out.
He stressed the importance of exports, Especially when we can
export value-added products and clear some of our supply, yet
get its true value.
Nonfat dry milk output amounted to 123 million
pounds, down 31.8 million or 20.6 percent from January, but
4.7 million or 4 percent above a year ago.
Mozzarella cheese output totaled 247.5 million pounds, down
20.6 million pounds or 7.7 percent from January, and 17.8
million or 6.7 percent below a year ago. Adjusted for leap
day, Mozzarella output was down 3.4 percent.
Total Italian type cheese, at 320.3 million
pounds, was down 27.6 million pounds or 7.9 percent from
January, and 14.7 million or 4.4 percent below a year ago.
American
type cheese amounted to 319.4 million pounds, down 33.8
million pounds or 9.6 percent from January, but unchanged
from a year ago.
Total cheese output came to 768.5 million pounds, down 55.5
million pounds or 6.7 percent from January, and 16.1 million
or 2.1 percent below a year ago. Adjusted for leap day, total cheese output was up 1.4
percent from 2008.
Cash
Dairy Markets Weekly Recap
(April 3, 2009) The cash dairy markets saw little change the
first week of April. Block cheese ended Friday at $1.28 per
pound, down a penny on the week and 53 1/4-cents below a
year ago. Barrel closed Friday at $1.26, down 3 3/4-cents on the
week and 49 1/2-cents below a year ago. Seventeen cars of block
traded hands on the week and 11 of barrel. The NASS-surveyed
U.S. average block price gained 1.6 cents, hitting $1.2379.
Barrel averaged $1.3173, up 4.1 cents.
Butter ended the week at $1.18, down three quarters of a cent,
and 19 1/4 cents below a year ago, while the NASS average was up
0.9 cent, at $1.1695. Six cars were sold on the week. NASS
nonfat dry milk averaged 81.52 cents, down 0.3 cent. Dry whey
averaged 17.45 cents, up 0.2 cent.
Uncle Sam purchased 4 million pounds of nonfat dry milk in price
support purchases this week, raising the cumulative total to
209.4 million, compared to none a year ago.
Looking
ahead; Class III futures settled Thursday as follows: April
$11.01, May $11.40, June $12.24, July $13.37, and August at
$14.46, with the peak at $15.23 in November. Contrast that to
the 2008 peak of $20.25 in June.
The NASS-surveyed cheese price averaged $1.2611 per pound, up 10.9 cents from February. Butter averaged $1.1289, up 5.4 cents. Nonfat dry milk averaged 81.66 cents, down slightly from 82.15 cents, and dry whey averaged 16.62 cents, up almost a penny from February.
|
CLASS & COMPONENT PRICES: |
|
COMMODITY |
March 2009 | February 2009 | January 2009 |
|
Class II Milk Price |
$10.36 cwt. | $10.25 cwt. | $10.41 cwt. |
|
Class II Butterfat Price |
$1.1664 lb. | $1.1011 lb. | $1.1154 lb. |
|
Class III Milk Price |
$10.44 cwt. | $9.31 cwt. | $10.78 cwt. |
|
Class III Skim Price |
$6.61 cwt. | $5.68 cwt. | $7.15 cwt. |
|
Class IV Milk Price |
$9.64 cwt. | $9.45 cwt. | $9.59 cwt. |
|
Class IV Skim Milk Price |
$5.78 cwt. | $5.82 cwt. | $5.92 cwt. |
|
Butterfat Price |
$1.1594 lb. | $1.0941 lb. | $1.1084 lb. |
|
Nonfat Solids Price |
$0.6423 lb. | $0.6472 lb. | $0.6574 lb. |
|
Protein Price |
$2.1973 lb. | $1.9139 lb. | $2.3638 lb. |
|
Other Solids Price |
$-0.0339 lb. | $-0.0437 lb. | $-0.0304 lb. |
|
Somatic Cell Adjustment Rate |
$0.00063 per 1,000 cells | $0.00058 per 1,000 cells | $0.00065 per 1,000 cells |
| PRODUCT PRICE AVERAGES | March 2009 | February 2009 | January 2009 |
| Butter | $1.1289 lb. | $1.0750 lb. | $1.0868 lb. |
| Nonfat Dry Milk | $0.8166 lb. | $0.8215 lb. | $0.8318 lb. |
| Cheese | $1.2611 lb. | $1.1518 lb. | $1.2961 lb |
| Dry Whey | $0.1662 lb. | $0.1567 lb. | $0.1696 lb. |
USDA
issued its annual Prospective
Plantings report this week, the first sign of how many acres
of major crops will be planted in 2009 and, based on early March
surveys, U.S. farmers will plant about 85 million acres of corn,
down slightly from last year. However, soybean acreage, at 76
million acres, will be up slightly. And, at about 60 million
acres, more area will be devoted to dry hay this year, welcome
news after last year’s record-high hay prices, according to
Natzke.
USDA
also released its Grain
Stocks report, an indicator of how much corn and soybeans
are currently in storage. That report shows corn inventories are
up slightly, but soybean inventories are down about 9 percent
from a year ago.
Taken
together, those reports indicate higher corn and soybean prices
are ahead, according to Darrel Good, University of Illinois
economist. That’s bad news for dairy farmers currently
facing some of the lowest milk prices in years.
USDA’s
monthly milk-feed price index, an indicator of milk income in
relation to feed costs, was just 1.51 in March, virtually
unchanged from February. An index of 3.0 is considered positive
for dairy farmer income, but the milk-feed ratio hasn't been
that high for 16 months.
With
the 2008 Farm Bill, feed prices are now factored into federal
Milk Income Loss Contract program (MILC) payments, paid to
farmers when milk prices are low. With USDA’s final
calculations for February feed costs, qualified dairy farmers
will receive about $1.51 per 100 pounds of milk marketed in
February. But, current milk and feed prices indicate the March
MILC payment will be higher, possibly $2.00 per 100 pounds of
milk.
He looks for the Class IV price to come in at $9.66. That would be an increase of 21 cents from February but would be $4.51 below a year ago. We will post official prices here as soon as possible.
CWT
will conduct its seventh herd removal
(April
2, 2009) The
farmer-funded, voluntary self-help Cooperatives Working Together
program (cwt) announced this week that it will conduct its
seventh herd removal. Bids will be accepted from CWT members
until May 1, 2009.
National
Milk’s Chris Galen, in Thursday’s broadcast, called it
“another good sign in the marketplace that things are being
done to help bring the supply/demand imbalance, which is
creating these very low milk prices, back into balance.” He
said they expect a lot of interest, given where milk prices are
right now.
Galen
also praised the USDA’s decision to move 200 million pounds of
nonfat dry milk out of storage into domestic feeding programs
and “Both will hopefully change the psychology of the dairy
markets and give producers hope that both the government, in
this case the USDA, as well as CWT, stand ready to use the
resources they have at their disposal to help dairy farmers
out.”
No
word has been given yet from USDA regarding resurrecting the
Dairy Export Incentive program but Galen pointed out that
Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack did mention it as something he
is looking at.
Galen
said we have to give him credit for “a good start but
hopefully, this will be just one in a series of steps that the
government can take to help do something about dairy prices and
CWT will be removing cows, starting in May and that will also
help reduce the flow of milk into the commercial channels this
spring.”
The
value of cows and heifers has dropped significantly in the past
six months. When asked what impact that might have on the
incoming bids, Galen answered, that the CWT’s flat fee for
bred heifers is $700 per head, down considerably from the last
herd removal. The average bid is expected to be significantly
lower, he said, because cow values are down and “We’re not
going to pay extravagant prices for cows, particularly at a time
where the overall value for these animals has really dropped.”
The
School Lunchroom Has Changed Since We Were There
(April
1, 2009) Miriam Erickson Brown, President and CEO of Anderson
Erickson Dairy in Des Moines, Iowa testified Tuesday before
the Senate Committee on Agriculture regarding the need for one
set of standards to cover foods sold in schools. She represented
the International Dairy Foods Association and National Milk and
reported highlights in the “Processor’s Perspective” in
Wednesday’s DairyLine.
Brown said she reminded Senators that the school lunchroom has “changed since we were there.” Today there are a la carte menus, vending machines and school stores that provide an array of food. Yet, only the school meal program is required to adhere to the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, which assures that our kids are getting the nutritious foods they need.
“There should be a range of healthy dairy products available in schools,” Brown said, “including white, lactose-free, and flavored milk as well as yogurt and cheese and it is important to develop school-wide standards that recognize their nutritional value.”
She also asked the committee to be sure to balance nutrition standards with what kids will eat. Foods that are good for you must also taste good, she said, and she gave yogurt as an example of such a popular choice with kids.
One six-ounce carton of yogurt contains as much protein as one large egg and less fat than a quarter pound of lean ground beef, according to Brown, adding that, “Flavored milk is great way to encourage children to drink low-fat and fat-free milk.”
Anderson Erickson’s fat-free chocolate milk has only 140 calories per eight ounce serving, she said, “So we need to make sure that our standards don't restrict sugar levels too far or they could actually limit the availability of this nutrient-rich favorite.”
Brown talked about the importance of dairy foods as an ingredient as well. She testified that the most popular and nutritious dishes served in schools today include cheese, things like pizzas, quesadillas, and pasta.
Not only is cheese a great source of calcium and protein, Brown said, but it often encourages kids to eat other healthful foods such as vegetables and whole grains, and a wide variety of cheeses are available today, including tasty reduced-fat varieties.
In conclusion, Brown said she assured the Senators that the dairy industry is “committed to providing new products, new flavors, and new ways for students to enjoy the taste and goodness of dairy products.”