January 2010 Archived Dairy News
January 30, 2010
Milk Feed Price Ratio Shows Slight Increase
Dairy Market Report - January
2010
Alliance
of Western Milk Producers
Western
United Dairymen Update
Milk Producers Council Weekly Update
This Week in Dairy Profit Weekly
2010
Dairy Cow College Session dates set Feb. 1-5
One
Dairy Remains in Chicago
Quality
Forage Leads to More Profitable Dairy Cows
New Official Holstein
International Pedigree Available from Holstein Association USA
Producers
Honored For Beef Quality Assurance Commitment Beef
Board Podcasts
January 29, 2010
World Ag Expo
‘Dairy Profit Seminars’ finalized
MILC Update
Dairy Market Weekly Recap
Lawsuit Against Dean Foods is an Outgrowth of Anti Trust Police Changes
Leprino
Foods says it no longer gets milk from dairy accused of abusing cows
Hard
work, honesty keep Tetzner's Dairy going strong
Cross
Country: Meetings help farmers deal with issues of today
National
Competition Honors Cattle Auctioneer & Dairy Producer
Novus
announces customized nutrition programs
January 28, 2010
Organizations Share Senators Disapproval of EPA Regulation
Move
To Ban "Tail Docking" In New York
Kansas
Legislature asked to raise some dairy fees
California Milk Advisory
Board 2010 Executive Committee Officers
IVOMEC®
(ivermectin) Challenge Extended For 2010
NZ:
Abandon giant dairy plans, urges watchdog
January 27, 2010
Animal
Rights Group Releases Video Of NY Farm http://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/
Beef Checkoff Offers Positive News in Otherwise Negative Media
New Johne’s Disease
Q&A Brochure FREE, Packed with Info Q&A
Brochure
Dairy
downturn reduces demand for young heifers
EPA
orders Illinois dairy to stop unauthorized waste discharges
Feb. 1 is deadline to apply
for 2010 Fred Stout Experience Awards
More
Melamine Tainted Milk Products Pulled from Stores in China
Dairy
Centers Debut in Afghan Province
January 26, 2010
Market Analysis with Alan Levitt
Congressman
Blunt to Speak at Dairy Forum
Families
take dairy frustration to Capitol
USDA
Outlines Potential for Dairy-based Packaging
Sen.
Kohl's Statement on DOJ Lawsuit Against Dean Foods Company
Pierson’s
suicide highlights dairy farmer's tough situation
Preservation
allows Franklin Township family to keep Warren County dairy farm
Ont.
dairy farmers urge appeal over raw milk
Blaydon
Dairy Farmers of Britain site bought by Medina Dairies
More
Tainted Dairy Products Are Found in Chinese Stores
Wimm-Bill-Dann
warns, tumbles
January 25, 2010
NY
Dairy Farmer's Widow Wants to Keep Farm Going
Most Schools Have Enrolled to 'Fuel Up to Play 60'
NY
Dairy Farmer Kills 51 Cows, Commits Suicide related
Alliance
of Western Milk Producers weekly update
Wisconsin
DNR allows major dairy expansion related
related
AG
Van Hollen: Sues to challenge Dean-Foremost plant acquisition
related
Read
the Dean Foods complaint here
Farmer's
plan could be a blueprint to help save New England's dairies
Saving
Harvey's Holsteins
Dairy
farmers hope for better year
Turning
a dairy dream into a thriving specialist business
‘Hali’
Cow: Jersey Wins Dairy Supreme
Feds
award $5m for alternative energy
Milk Producers Council Weekly Update
Western
United Dairymen Update
USDEC members quick to offer
Haiti relief
Six
inducted into Bradley County Agricultural Hall of Fame
Jersey Genetic Trends &
Implications for Selection Focus of March Seminar
Midwest Regional Dairy
Challenge Will Draw 75 Students from 15 Universities
January 22, 2010
December Cold Storage Report
Dairy Markets Weekly Review
MILC Updated
February Federal Order Class I Base Price is $14.84
Dairy Processors Meet in Phoenix
Financial
Risk Management Seminar Planned in Chicago
Cross
Country: It's ag meeting season
MPCA
moves to close odiferous Thief River Falls dairy
Profitability
Easier to Attain With Higher Feed Efficiency
January 21, 2010
IDFA Dairy
Forum 2010: CEO Tipton outlines challenges opportunities
Dairy Farmers Help Haiti
Guest Editorial: Are you
satisfied with $13.00 Milk?
Penn
State Dairy Outlook - January 2010
Save the Col Poly Cows -
Fundraiser Next Week
Letter
from Langdon - Overseeing Livestock
Wisconsin
cheese researcher Johnson receives Award
Haubenschild
is Innovative Dairy Farmer of the Year
Neighbors
Concerned About Mega Dairy
Wisconsin
Dairy Cows Busier Than Others
January 20, 2010
Market Analysis with Dave Kurzawski
Latest Dairy Outlook Released
Mega
Farm Dairy Proposed in Taylor County
Upcoming Wisconsin Milk
Marketing Board Elections
Low
Milk Prices Cause $1.1 Billion Hit on State Farm Income in '09
National
Beef Council Considers 'Thinning The Herd'
Warren Buffett: Kraft's £11.9bn takeover of Cadbury is a 'bad deal'
January 19, 2010
Milk Production Down 0.8 Percent
Market Analysis with Bill Brooks
Deadline
Today for Milk Payment Related
Young
Dairy Farmer Bucks Economic Trend
PDPW
to Hold Annual Business Conference in March
Australia:
Dairy Farmers consider future as tough times continue
January 18, 2010
Dairy's Presence on the Internet is Increasing
Milk Producers Council update
Western United Dairymen update
Conditions ease from 'disastrous' to 'painful' for local dairy
farmers
Buy local to preserve Vermont farms
WA: Stanwood veterinarian had wide reputation in dairy medicine
January 15, 2010
USDA Joins National
Dairy Council and NFL to Improve Health and Wellness in
Schools
Dairy Market Weekly Recap
Higher Feed Costs Could Moderate What Should Be a Better Financial Year
Mid-Week Milk Production Update
N.M.
dairyman plans milk dump
Three
from Wisconsin Named to Dairy Industry Advisory Committee
Missouri
Dairy association meeting Jan. 29-30
Groups
propose disease traceability ID system
Dairy
& Beef Industry Animal Husbandry Conference Slated
Utah's
2010 dairy ambassadors named
Dairy
owner: Fighting city annexation costly
Is
It Harmful To The Cow Or Her Udder To Wean In Below Zero Weather?
Chatham
anaerobic digester project gets $1 million boost
ID:
Otter proposes delaying funds for research center
PA:
Hoeffel
announces plan for agriculture
Dairy
cows prepped for Pennsylvania Farm Show ring
Elanco Forms Food Safety
Business Unit
Foot-and-mouth
disease outbreak not a threat to demand, exports
Alchemy
Announces Sponsorship of 2010 IDFA Dairy Forum
Young's
Dairy offers anniversary specials
New
Zealand: Top Advisor Exits Dairy Industry's Role
More
accountability for Dairy Australia
January 14, 2010
Update on National FARM Progam
Jersey Production In 2009
Sets New Records in all Categories
Federal
funds on the way for dairy genetic exports
In
The Cattle Markets: New Year New Hope
Ontario
tops up Johne's prevention program
Philadelphia
protests Pa. milk surcharge
Ireland
- The dairy crisis
January 13, 2010
Dairy Beef Quality Assurance Program
Wis.
committee to take up raw milk
Grocer
boosts region’s dairy farms
Loan
guarantees to assist 130 rural businesses
China
Prosecutors Take Dairy Case
Road
to be repaved for dairy operation
30-year-old
Lamar County dairy farmer elected to national position
January 12, 2010
Latest World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates Released
Small MILC Rate Possible?
Dairy
market reform: Farmers need elected officials to lend a hand
Future
of Virginia milk in jeopardy
The
94th annual Pennsylvania Farm Show
Hamels
makes 'Pitch for Dairy'
January 11, 2010
California February Class 1 Prices Announced
Dairy is part of the child obesity solution
Western
United Dairymen weekly update
Milk
Producers Council weekly update
CA:
Local dairy farmers to serve on USDA advisory committee
NY:
Madrid
dairy farmer to run for Legislature seat
Forum
to examine downturn in Wis. agriculture
Dairy
Focus: Dipping in cold weather
Demand
drives cattle outlook for 2010
Valley
dairies go green, harness methane for energy -- and cash
What's
in a bottle of Pa. milk? Inequities
I-29
Dairy Conference Sustains Dairy Families, Farms
Local
dairy farmers are getting paid what they where 20 years ago
Yakima
Co. dairy farmers expect a tough future
Canada: Cow
co-op's raw milk 'highly contaminated'
China:
Dairy Probe Began Almost 11 Months Before Being Disclosed
January 10, 2010
Dairy is part of the child obesity solution
Western United Dairymen weekly update
Milk Producers Council weekly update
CA: Local dairy farmers to serve on USDA advisory committee
NY: Madrid
dairy farmer to run for Legislature seat
Forum to examine downturn in Wis. agriculture
Dairy Focus: Dipping in cold weather
Demand drives cattle outlook for 2010
valley dairies go green, harness methane for energy -- and cash
What's in a bottle of Pa. milk? Inequities
I-29 Dairy Conference Sustains Dairy Families, Farms
Local
dairy farmers are getting paid what they where 20 years ago
Yakima Co. dairy farmers expect a tough future
Canada: Cow co-op's raw milk 'highly contaminated'
China: Dairy Probe Began Almost 11 Months Before Being Disclosed
Friday, January 8, 2010
Dairy Markets Weekly Review
Advisory Committee Scheduled To Meet Early This Year
New
Dairy Industry Panel to Include Four Wisconsin Reps.
Milk
prices paid to dairy farmers leveling off but for some relief is too
late
USDA’s
Ag Research Service Purchases Fluidigm Solution
Cozy
up to the Pennsylvania Farm Show
Mining
Brown Gold For Dairy Farmers
Local
farmer presents talk at Ag Society meeting
Farm
Accident Kills Lynden Dairy Worker
Louisiana
cattle moved to most sheltered pastures
Butter
sculpture unveiled Related
Organic
Center names new director Related
Dairy
farmers feel pinch, empty barns
The
abolition of the Milk Marketing Board did not help UK dairy farmers
UK:
Milk: do we need a dairy godmother?
Thursday, January 7, 2010
We were talking about many of the same things ten years ago
News
for Dairy Co-Ops
NMPF
Staff Reorganization to Augment Efforts on Dairy Industry Issues in
2010
USDA's
Dairy Industry Advisory Committee
Dairy
Cattle Focus: Dipping In Cold Weather
Local
cattlemen prepare for arctic blast
Forum to unveil
2010 forecast for Wisconsin's agriculture economy
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Government Dictate or Market Dictate?
Dairy
farmer plans to pamper cows with waterbeds, music
Iowa
State University Local Dairy Days Feature Farm Profitability
Soybeans,
Corn Rise as Cold Weather May Increase Feed Demand
Former
Ontario dairy owner receives state recognition
Strategy
to eradicate Johne's disease needed now
Turning
research into results
Markets
still mixed for NZ Dairy Produce
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
November Dairy Products Report
Market Analysis with Mary Ledman
Denmark's
ban holds lesson
US
Jersey Reports Back-to-Back Record Years
Dairy
Cattle Feed Efficiency: What Does It Mean To You?
A
Home Grown Winner
Farm
unleashes cow power
Rough 2009
for dairy farmers
One Health Initiative Center
Stage at NIAA’s 2010 Annual Meeting
Westchester
Foundation Ag Scholarship Applications Due February 1st
ImmuCell
Hires Director of Sales and Marketing
Monday, January 4, 2010
Doesn't Matter If You Believe In Humane-Induced Climate Change Or Not
Midwest
Dairy Association Sets District Meetings
Big
Farms Might Play Larger Roles in Organic Milk Production
Keeping
dairy farms part of the landscape
Team
helps Perry dairy farm run s-mooo-thly
Neb.
dairy farm recovering from roof collapse
Shanghai
dairy shut after melamine scare: report
Happy New Year!
Alliance
of Western Milk Producers
A Number of Factors Will Determine Dairy's Direction in 2010
Dairy Market Report for December - Roger Cryan, NMPF
Mid-Week Milk Production Update
For
farmers, federal aid checks ease pain, but not worries
Debt hangs over dairymen
Cattle Farmers Struggle Under High Commodity Prices
Jersey Association Reports Back-to-Back Record Years
Cross Country: Dairy farmers hoping for a better year than 2009
ConAgra sues Dean Foods over Swiss Miss trademark
A Fitting Job for the Farm Show
Corn averaged $3.45 per bushel, down 14 cents from December, and 91 cents below a year ago. The soybean price, at $9.49 per bushel, was down 31 cents from December, and 48 cents below a year ago. Alfalfa baled hay was $113.00 per ton, up $3.00 from December, but $35.00 below a year ago.
Dairy
Market Weekly Recap
(January
29, 2010) The cash market saw block cheese move higher for the
third week in a row while butter and nonfat dry milk plunged the
final week of January. Cash block cheese closed Friday at
$1.5150 per pound, up 3 1/2-cents on the week and 36 1/2-cents
above a year ago. Barrel closed at $1.5050, unchanged on the
week, and 39 cents above a year ago. Ten carloads of each traded
hands on the week. The NASS-surveyed block price averaged
$1.4644 across the U.S., down 8.4 cents. Barrel averaged
$1.4769, down 0.3 cent.
Butter
closed the week at $1.33, 13 3/4-cents below the previous week,
but
22
3/4-cents above a year ago. Thirteen cars were sold on the week.
NASS butter averaged $1.3854, up 4.6 cents.
Cash Grade A nonfat dry milk closed Friday at $1.19, down 11 cents, and Extra Grade closed at $1.24, down 6 cents. NASS powder averaged $1.0917, down a whopping 19.6 cents, and dry whey averaged 38.66 cents, down 0.3 cent.
Lawsuit
Against Dean Foods is an Outgrowth of Anti Trust Police Changes
(January
29, 2010) The
U.S. Department of Justice and three states have filed an
antitrust lawsuit against Dean Foods, challenging its 2009
acquisition of two milk processing plants in Wisconsin. Dairy
Profit Weekly editor Dave Natzke reported in Friday’s DairyLine
that the Justice Department has been joined by attorneys general
in Wisconsin,
Illinois, and Michigan in filing the lawsuit against Deans, the
largest fluid milk bottler in the United States.
The
suit challenges Dean's 2009 purchase of two fluid milk plants
from Foremost Farms,
a Wisconsin-based dairy cooperative.
The
complaint, filed in federal court in the Eastern District of
Wisconsin, alleges the transaction will lessen competition in
the region’s fluid and school milk markets. Court documents
say the addition of the two plants has given Deans a 57 percent
share of the fluid milk market in the region.
The
suit requests Dean’s divest assets and interests it acquired
when purchasing plants in Waukesha and DePere, Wisconsin. It
also asked that Deans be required to give a 30-day notice when
making future acquisitions.
Foremost
Farms is not named in the suit, Natzke said, and has declined
comment, saying it followed all laws and regulations related to
the sale. Foremost with 2,300 dairy farmer members in seven
states, continues to provide milk to Dean Foods through a supply
contract, according to Natzke.
Deans
said it will defend itself vigorously against the complaint,
saying the transaction benefited Wisconsin dairy farmers by
providing a stable and growing outlet for their milk, and
produced cost savings for its milk customers.
The lawsuit is an outgrowth of antitrust policy changes since the Obama Administration took office. The Department of Justice and USDA have scheduled several public "workshops" beginning this spring to explore competition and regulatory issues in the agriculture industry and kick off with a general workshop in Iowa, in March, followed by a dairy industry workshop, set for June, in Wisconsin. The workshops will analyze agricultural markets nationally, and look at the discrepancies between the prices received by farmers and the prices paid by consumers, Natzke concluded.
(January
28, 2010) A coalition of 138 agricultural organization,
including National Milk, have sent a letter to Senator Lisa
Murkowski (R-AK) supporting her introduction of a resolution of
disapproval under the Congressional Review Act regarding the
decision of the Environmental Protection Agency to move ahead on
regulating carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases under the
Clean Air Act.
National
Milk’s Chris Galen said in Thursday’s broadcast that this is
the next step in a process that began late last year when the
EPA concluded that greenhouse gases are a danger to public
health and moved forward with a process to regulate gas
emissions like carbon dioxide and methane under the Clean Air
Act.
The
letter supports the prevention of EPA from doing this because
these agricultural organizations believe the Clean Air Act is
not the appropriate way to establish greenhouse gas policy and
could lead to a variety of costly unintended consequences. He
added that others, not involved in farming, also share such
concern and do not favor creation of a carbon tax or anything
similar.
The
letter points out that the Clean Air Act was never really
intended to deal with global warming or to mitigate greenhouse
gases so there is no precedent for this, Galen argued, other
than a few years ago the U.S. Supreme Court handed down a ruling
stating that the EPA had the power to regular greenhouse gases.
Galen
said they are trying to prevent that from happening and are
concerned that another approach to this would be a “cap and
trade” system but it doesn’t appear that Congress will move
aggressively on that in 2010 but the main concern is making
certain that the EPA doesn’t unilaterally move down a path of
unintended consequences by regulating greenhouse gases using the
Clean Air Act.”
(January
27, 2010) The Beef Checkoff got high marks from another member
of the dairy industry this week. Richard Silacci, who manages
the dairy farm at Cal Poly, spoke in Wednesday’s “Beef Board
Update” and discussed the emphasis on quality and how it
applies to farmers. He said the checkoff provides education to
the public regarding dairy cows and how they are managed.
“A
lot of the news that consumers are seeing is usually negative
and that winds up on television and radio,” Silacci said,
“And with the check off dollars we see positive publicity.”
Information as to what really goes on, on the farm is made
known, he said, “and the good things we do that insure beef
quality.”
The
check off also educates farmers and that’s what is taught to
student s at Cal Poly, according to Silacci. The farm milks
about 170 cows of two breeds, Silacci said, and they teach
students that, when giving vaccinations or injections, certain
sites on the cow are better than others to improve the quality
of the beef when the cow goes to the slaughter house and, in
turn, is sold to consumers.
Students
are also taught the opportune time to cull a cow, he said, so
they don’t let a cow get to the point where she is
“unhealthy looking and skinny.”
Sixty percent of U.S. schools have enrolled in the “Fuel Up to Play 60” campaign and Pennsylvania dairy producer and vice chair of the National Dairy Board, Paula Meabon talked about it in Monday’s “DMI Update. The campaign got some extra press at a January 15 news conference which announced the partnership of the USDA, National Dairy Council, and the National Football League.
Market Analysis with Alan Levitt(January
26, 2010) Alan Levitt, editor of the CME’s Daily
Dairy Report said in Tuesday’s broadcast that we’re
seeing an uneven recovery in the markets. They’re still
unsettled, he said, and he expects ups and downs for the next
couple months.
He
didn’t see a big influence in Monday’s trading from
Friday’s Cold Storage
report. Cheese and butter stocks are well above a year ago and
hang over the market and may the reason the recovery is uneven.
Another
issue we’re dealing with, he said, is the fact that, even
though milk production nationally was down more than a half
percent in the second half of 2009, output in Wisconsin and
Minnesota was actually up about 4 percent where most of the milk
goes to cheese and is skewed toward American type. He warned
that “We may not see those cheese stocks go down as quickly as
we otherwise might, given where milk production is trending.”
Commenting
on the drop in cash powder prices, Levitt said so much of that
is based on what’s going on globally and the global markets
have softened since December. In the last six weeks, cheese,
butter, and powder prices are down 15-20 cents per pound and it
seems like, once we got through the holidays buyers got into a
pause mode, waiting to see what happens to the spring flush in
the U.S. and Europe before buying too far ahead.
(January
25, 2010) Sixty percent of U.S. schools have enrolled in the
“Fuel Up to Play 60” campaign and Pennsylvania dairy
producer and vice chair of the National Dairy Board, Paula
Meabon talked about it in Monday’s “DMI Update. The campaign
got some extra press at a January 15 news conference which
announced the partnership of the USDA, National Dairy Council,
and the National Football League.
The
NFL brings “star power” to the program, Meabon said, and all
32 teams are engaged. “USDA’s stamp of approval makes it a
great program to help the youth fight against obesity,” Meabon
said, “And that’s what this program is all about. It’s for
our kids.”
Students
can choose from various activities such as a basketball club or
a running club, a fitness program for 60 minutes a day.
Nutrition guidance is also part of the program, she said, and
dairy is a big part of that, along with fruits, vegetables, and
whole grains. She called it a “win-win for our children.”
The
kickoff of the program was last October, according to Meabon,
and 40,000 schools were involved. Today it numbers 58,000 and
growing, and she stated that “Schools must sign up themselves
so it’s a commitment the schools are taking upon themselves
for their youth.”
(January
22, 2010) December butter stocks totaled 133.7 million pounds,
down 9 million pounds or 6 percent from November but 14.7 million
pounds or 12 percent above December 2008, according to preliminary
data in the Agriculture Department’s latest Cold
Storage report issued Friday afternoon.
The American cheese inventory, at 586.8 million pounds, was up 3.7 million pounds or 1 percent from November and 48.7 million pounds or 9 percent above a year ago.
Total cheese stocks amounted to 966.9 million pounds, up 5.2 million pounds or 1 percent from November, and 114.9 million or 13 percent above those a year ago.
(January
22, 2010) Cash dairy prices were mixed in the Martin Luther King
Day holiday shortened week. Block cheese closed Friday at $1.48
per pound, up 6 1/2-cents on the week and 40 1/2-cents above a
year ago. Barrel closed at $1.5050, up 4 cents on the week, and
40 1/2-cents above a year ago. Four cars of block traded hands
on the week and one of barrel. The NASS-surveyed U.S. average
block price lost 9.3 cents, slipping to $1.5483. Barrel averaged
$1.4794, up 0.1 cent.
Butter went in the other direction, closing Friday at $1.4675, down 5 3/4-cents on the week, but still 36 1/2-cents above a year ago. Fourteen cars were sold. NASS butter averaged $1.3391, up 0.9 cent. NASS nonfat dry milk averaged $1.2879, down 6.3 cents, and dry Whey averaged 39.02 cents, up 0.2 cent.
February Federal Order Class I Base Price is $14.84
(January
22, 2010) The Agriculture Department announced the February
Federal order Class I base milk price this morning at $14.84
per hundredweight, down 19 cents from January but $4.12 above
February 2009. The Class IV advanced pricing factor was the
“higher of” in driving the Class I value and there will be
no MILC payment to producers.
The two-week NASS-surveyed butter price averaged $1.3350 per pound, down 14.7 cents from January. Nonfat dry milk averaged $1.3201, up a nickel. Cheese averaged $1.5578, down 1.9 cents, and dry whey averaged 38.93 cents, up 2.6 cents from January.
|
|
Feb 2010 | Jan 2010 | Dec 2009 |
| Class I Base | $14.84/cwt. | $15.03/cwt. | $13.99/cwt. |
|
*The Base Skim Milk Class I: |
$10.27/cwt. | $9.82/cwt. | $9.31/cwt. |
|
Class III skim: |
$10.12/cwt. | $9.56/cwt. | $9.31/cwt. |
|
Class IV skim: |
$10.27/cwt. | $9.82/cwt. | $8.44/cwt. |
|
**Butterfat |
$1.4090/lb. | $1.5874/lb. | $1.4310/lb. |
|
Class II Skim price: |
$10.97/cwt. | $/cwt. | $9.14/cwt. |
|
Class II NFS price: |
$1.2189/lb. | $/lb. | $1.0156/lb. |
2-week Product Price Averages:
|
|
Feb 2010 | Jan 2010 | Dec 2009 |
|
Butter |
$1.3350/lb. | $1.4823/lb. | $1.3532/lb. |
|
NFDM |
$1.3201/lb. | $1.2701/lb. | $1.1147/lb. |
|
Cheese |
$1.5578/lb. | $1.5764/lb. | $1.5113/lb. |
|
Dry Whey |
$0.3893/lb | $0.3629/lb. | $0.3452/lb. |
Dairy
Processors Meet in Phoenix
(January
22, 2010) The nation’s dairy processors gathered in Phoenix
this week for the International Dairy Foods Association’s
annual Dairy Forum. Dairy
Profit Weekly editor Dave Natzke reported in Friday’s
broadcast that, “Thanks to low milk prices that lowered input
costs, 2009 was a much better financial year for many of the
nearly 900 people representing manufacturing and processing
sectors of the dairy industry attending this year’s forum.
However, with the dairy price volatility that made dairy farmers
winners in 2007 and dairy processors winners in 2009, there was
recognition it's time to "fix" the system.”
In
her annual address, IDFA president and CEO
Connie Tipton reviewed policies and politics affecting the dairy
industry in this new decade. First on her list was government
economic and social policies that negatively impact the
business climate. Second was regulations
and government mandates, especially in the area of food
safety and labeling. Third was changes
in diet and nutrition guidelines, including policies
impacting federal and school feeding programs that could limit
dairy.
Fourth
was energy and
environmental policies that will change dairy processes,
marketing and business strategies, fifth, dairy
policy “safety nets” and trade policies that limit
dairy trade potential, and sixth, changes
in consumer trends that will require increased innovation
and consumer education.
Tipton
warned federal agencies such as FDA, EPA and USDA will play a
larger role in the dairy industry, Natzke reported, and regulate
everything from greenhouse gas emissions to food safety to dairy
ingredient standards.
The
recent economic downturn has resulted in changes to consumer
eating habits, Tipton noted, with more people eating a greater
portion of their meals at home. Consumers are also more frugal,
according to Tipton, and want more information on the source and
health/wellness aspects of their food.
“Dairy has a good story to tell,” Tipton said, “And should promote itself better, while adjusting to the changing tastes and lifestyles of consumers.”
Dairy Farmers Help Haiti
(January
21, 2010) Dairy farmers, through their Cooperative Working
Together (CWT) program will donate $100,000 to the American Red
Cross to assist the aid and recovery effort in Haiti. National
Milk’s Chris Galen reported in Thursday’s DairyLine
that this crisis has little precedent in recent decades. Dairy
farmers in the past have given generously to domestic and
international relief efforts, Galen said, and, given the
devastation in Haiti and no functioning government and very
little infrastructure left standing, CWT believes that a cash
donation to the Red Cross is the most effective way to help
people there.
When
asked if consideration was made for CWT to purchase dairy
products and ship them to Haiti, Galen said, when one considers
the sights on the news, and there being little to no government,
food or water, electricity, or functioning port, it would be a
challenge to get products down there. CWT is not a logistics
organization, he said, so the best way is to make a monetary
contribution.
“It will take months and years for Haiti to recover from this,” Galen said, “And at that point we can have a longer term conversation about how best to get dairy products to people there.” He pointed out that Haiti was a recipient of products sold through the CWT “so there is a relationship already between CWT and commercial dairy buyers in Haiti but the focus now in on the short term and we’ll see what happens longer term with respect to commercial export opportunities.”
Market Analysis with Dave Kurzawski
(January
20, 2010) The first day of trading following the Martin Luther
King Day holiday saw block cheese jump 4 cents, to $1.4550 per
pound. The blocks gained a penny and a half but butter dropped 2
1/2 cents. The markets were anticipating the December Milk
Production report that afternoon.
Downes-O’Neill
dairy broker, Dave Kurzawski, said in Wednesday’s broadcast
that “The price of cheese is a little too cheap right now.”
He said there’s good, legitimate demand for both cheese and
butter and he believes the cheese price will make its way back
up to the $1.50 level or higher now that we’ve worked through
the holiday cheese.
The
futures market is already pricing that, according to Kurzawski,
who warned producers against thinking that there’s no ceiling
on the futures price right now.
He
adds that it’s critical for producers to understand what their
cost of doing business is for 2010 before they do anything in
risk management strategy. Ideally, Kurzawski wants producers to
have a floor price under the market by buying $14 put options
for 20 cents a month, making a $13.80 floor price for the
balance of the year, and “let the market give you whatever
it’s going to give you above that but at least have a worst
case scenario plan in place for 2010.”
Kurzawski says producers are expressing more interest this year in futures trading, or at least learning more about the tools that are available to them. He said we’re seeing very volatile markets as they have been the past couple years and will continue to be and he believes both banks and producers “need to understand how to use these tools going forward.” “Whether or not they do is another question,” he concluded, “but they need to educate themselves.” For more information, call Kurzawski at 1-800-231-3089.
Latest Dairy Outlook Released
Lower expected feed prices should help boost production per cow that is expected to increase by a relatively robust 1.9 percent this year. The milk-feed price ratio is not expected to reach 2.5, a range that typically signals a steady state in dairy cow numbers, until the end of 2010. While the worst of the economic contraction is over, many producers are not in a financial position to consider herd expansion at this time.
After a year of culling, the lower average age of the dairy herd should also help boost output per cow, since it is younger, more productive cows that will remain. USDA projects 2010 milk production at 188.4 billion pounds, which would represent a further decline from the 2009 lower production.
Cheese prices are expected to strengthen throughout 2010 as economic recovery proceeds and milk supplies tighten. Cheese prices are expected to average $1.570 to $1.650 per pound in 2010, a rise from the $1.2966 per pound average posted for 2009. USDA’s December Cold Storage report placed total cheese stocks at the end of November at 961,376 pounds, 117 percent of year-earlier levels.
Butter prices, like cheese prices, are expected to rise through 2010 and are forecast to average $1.390 to $1.500 per pound, well above the $1.2096 average price for 2009. Butter stocks were 142,175 pounds, 119 percent of November 2008’s level. Lower expected milk production in 2010 should reduce both cheese and butter production this year compared with last year, helping to support prices and drawing down stocks.
Exports on a skims basis are forecast to rise to 25.5 million pounds and reach 4.8 billion pounds on a fats basis. Exports of nonfat dry milk (NDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) are expected to rise in 2010 to 660 million pounds, a recovery from 2009, but still below 2008.
Cheese and cheese product exports are expected to rise in 2010 to about 245 million pounds, and butter and butter fat exports are expected to climb to 71 million pounds. Continued improvement in exports will be a significant factor in the price outlook, especially for skim milk powders. In addition, domestic use on both a fat and skims-solids basis is expected to rise just over 1 percent in 2010.
Higher demand, both foreign and domestic, along with reduced production should tighten milk equivalent stock on both a fats and skims basis by year’s end. Year-end stocks are expected to fall to 8.85 billion pounds from 11.1 billion pounds milk equivalent on a fat basis. On a skims basis, ending stocks are projected to tighten to 9.5 billion pounds from 11.0 billion at the end of 2009.
The strengthening in dairy product prices translates into higher prices for milk in all classes in 2010 compared with 2009. The Class IV price is forecast at $14.75 to $15.60 per cwt, substantially above 2009’s average of $10.89 per cwt. The Class III price is expected to rise to $14.75 to $15.55 per cwt, up from 2009’s $11.36 per cwt average. The all milk price is forecast to average $16.20 to $17.00 per cwt, up from $12.79 per cwt in 2009.
Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,758 pounds for December, 29 pounds above December 2008.
The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.31 million head, 206,000 head less than December 2008, and unchanged from November 2009.
California was down 4.6 percent, due to 76,000 less cows
and a 10 pound drop per cow from a year ago. Wisconsin was up
4.3 percent, thanks to a 65 pound gain per cow and 4,000 more
cows. New York was down 0.3 percent. Cow numbers were off 15,000
but output was up 35 pounds per cow. Idaho was up 0.4 percent,
with a decrease of 4,000 cows, but output was up 20 pounds per
cow. Pennsylvania output was up 0.7 percent from a year ago, on
a 40 pound gain per cow but 10,000 less cows, and Minnesota
was up 3.2 percent on a 45 gain per cow and 2,000 more cows.
The biggest increase was Wisconsin, up 4.3 percent. Iowa was
next, up 3.6 percent, followed by Minnesota up 3.2 percent. The
biggest decline occurred in Colorado, down 11.1 percent due to a
14,000 decline in cow numbers. Arizona was next, down 10.9
percent with 22,000 fewer cows. Missouri followed with a 8
percent loss.
October - December Milk Production down 1.0
Percent
Milk production in the U.S. during the October - December
quarter totaled 46.2 billion pounds, down 1.0 percent from the
October - December quarter last year. The average number of milk
cows in the U.S. during the quarter was 9.09 million head,
243,000 head less than the same period last year.
|
State by State |
Milk Cows
|
Output Per Cow
|
Milk Production
|
|
Arizona |
-22,000 |
+15 lbs. |
-10.9% |
|
California |
-76,000 |
-10 lbs. |
-4.6% |
|
Colorado |
-14,000 |
-10 lbs. |
-11.1% |
|
Florida |
-6,000 |
+45 lbs. |
-2.2% |
|
Idaho |
-4,000 |
+20 lbs. |
+0.4% |
|
Illinois |
-1,000 |
+20 lbs. |
+0.6% |
|
Indiana |
+2,000 |
+10 lbs. |
+1.8% |
|
Iowa |
Unchanged |
+60 lbs. |
+3.6% |
|
Kansas |
-9,000 |
+45 lbs. |
-5.1% |
|
Michigan |
Unchanged |
+45 lbs. |
+2.4% |
|
Minnesota |
+2,000 |
+45 lbs. |
+3.2% |
|
Missouri |
-6,000 |
-40 lbs. |
-8.0% |
|
New Mexico |
-17,000 |
+40 lbs. |
-3.2% |
|
New York |
-15,000 |
+35 lbs. |
-0.3% |
|
Ohio |
-4,000 |
+40 lbs. |
+1.2% |
|
Oregon |
-1,000 |
+35 lbs. |
+1.1% |
|
Pennsylvania |
-10,000 |
+40 lbs. |
+0.7% |
|
Texas |
-19,000 |
+80 lbs. |
+0.1% |
|
Utah |
-2,000 |
Unchanged |
-2.7% |
|
Vermont |
-5,000 |
+20 lbs. |
-2.4% |
|
Virginia |
-2,000 |
+30 lbs. |
Unchanged |
|
Washington |
-1,000 |
+45 lbs. |
+1.9% |
|
Wisconsin |
+4,000 |
+65 lbs. |
+4.3% |
|
23 State Total |
-206,000 |
+29 lbs. |
-0.8% |
(January
19, 2010) Downes-O’Neill dairy economist Bill Brooks looks for
more gains in the cash cheese market in the Martin Luther King
Day-holiday shortened week but butter is “anyone’s guess.”
Speaking in Tuesday’s broadcast, Brooks said the strong gains
In butter, particularly on Friday January 15, may not be
sustainable. He said “this is occurring at a time when we are
seeing growing butter inventories but butter is a storable
commodity that somebody might need and the folks who have it
aren’t willing to let go of it unless they achieve a certain
price.”
Losses
in the cash nonfat dry milk market match losses in price reports
from USDA’s Dairy
Market News. The pipeline has likely been refilled,
according to Brooks, and Southeast Asian countries, especially
China is “coming up on a new year’s celebration which will
curtail export business activity into that region where a lot of
dairy products get shipped to.”
It
shouldn’t be a surprise to see some weakness in powder, he
said, but he doesn’t expect prices to fall anywhere near
support levels any time soon.
Global
dairy prices are softening, according to Brooks, though part of
that may be tied to currency exchange in converting it to U.S.
dollars, but added; “there are a lot of dairy products in
storage and a lot is in Europe in governmental hands but still
weighs on the market.”
(January
15, 2010) “Dairy is having an increasing presence on the
internet, where we belong,” according to Dairy Management
Incorporated David Pelzer on Monday’s “DMI Update.” The
topic was so-called “social media,” and how information is
exchanged via internet sources.
He
pointed out that among 18-34 year olds, 60 percent said they get
the majority of their news from the internet so that is why the
Dairy Checkoff has a presence there to tell dairy’s story.
The
check off has sites such as “My Dairy” at http://www.mydairycow.com,
organized by dairy producers and dairy advocates who are active
on Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter to deliver positive messages
to consumers.
Topics
include animal welfare and care, on-farm practices,
environmental issues, even nutrition issues. The National Dairy
Council blog at www.thedairyreport.com
also has the latest information on dairy nutrition.
Pelzer reported that traffic is good at these sites as more and more people get on the internet and use it as an information source.
Dairy Market Weekly Recap
Butter
closed the week at $1.5250, up 18 cents, and 41 1/4-cents above
a year ago. Twenty six cars were sold. NASS butter averaged
$1.3302, down 0.7 cent.
Cash Grade A and Extra Grade nonfat dry milk closed the week at $1.30 per pound, down 7 and 8 1/2 cents respectively. NASS nonfat dry milk averaged $1.3507, up 7 cents, and dry whey averaged 38.79 cents, down 0.2 cent.
Higher
Feed Costs Could Moderate What Should Be a Better Financial Year
(January
15, 2010) With last year’s cool growing season and delayed
harvest, it's been hard to get a handle on 2009 totals for major
crops but several USDA reports released this week help clear the
picture and provide a preview of dairy feed costs in 2010,
according to Dairy Profit
Weekly editor Dave Natzke in Friday’s broadcast.
USDA
released final 2009 Crop
Production, as well as updated Grain
Stocks and World Ag
Supply & Demand Estimates reports, indicating both corn
and soybean harvests were the largest on record, Natzke
reported.
“Thanks
to a record-high average yield of more than 165 bushels per
acre, corn production totaled 13.2 billion bushels,” he said.
Record-high soybean acreage pushed the total soybean harvest to
3.36 billion bushels. But, USDA raised 2009-2010 marketing year
average prices despite the large crops, according to Natzke, due
to strong domestic and export demand and use.
The
mid-range farm price for corn is projected at $3.70 per bushel;
the soybean price is projected at $9.65 per bushel; and the
soybean meal price was projected at $290 per short ton.
Those
higher prices could moderate what should be a better financial
year for dairy farmers, according to John Wilson, senior vice
president of marketing and industry affairs for Dairy Farmers of
America (DFA). Wilson said the "new normal" for corn
prices will be in the $3.50-$4.50 per bushel range. So, even
though DFA projects a $3 increase in milk prices in 2010, to
$16.13 per hundredweight, higher feed costs will mean most
producers will remain at break-even levels.
USDA's
latest crop report also summarized 2009 hay and forage crops,
according to Natzke. Overall dry hay production was up slightly
from last year, and dairy farmers entered the new year with
larger hay inventories. Production of other haylages and corn
silage is down slightly, but overall supplies, combined with
declining dairy and beef cows numbers, is helping bring hay and
forage prices down from 2008 levels, Natzke concluded.
Update on National FARM Progam
(January
14, 1010) DairyLine
listeners got an update on National Milk’s FARM program
(Farmers Assuring Responsible Management) in Thursday’s
broadcast from Chris Galen. The program was unveiled at World
Dairy Expo in 2008 and is online at www.nationaldairyfarm.com.
The program is a series of standards that can be implemented
on dairy farms if you want to affix your products with the
National Dairy Farm logo,
National
Milk is working this year with the dairy CARES program in
California, according to Galen, to make the national FARM
program available and workable there. He said there’s been a
lot of attention on animal welfare issues, particularly on the
West Coast and “because we are in a post Proposition 2
environment in California, I think the folks there recognize
that this particular dairy FARM program provides a way for
farms there to independently verify their animal husbandry
practices.”
Galen
said they are also working in other parts of the country
“with the backdrop that more attention is being paid to
animal welfare and there’s more criticism of what’s
happening on farms today so it’s important for us to play
offense on this issue by having a program that’s been
developed by the industry but also has independent
verification to assure consumers about the conditions under
which dairy farm cows are kept on the farm.”
Galen
admitted that some of the criticism can be dismissed as
complaints from animal rights groups but “If they are able
to make even tougher standards mandatory, either by laws or by
the marketplace, and make certain that retailers and
processors are demanding certain things, we’re far better
being proactive in this regard than reacting to what others
want to do.”
(January
13, 2010) The Dairy Beef Quality Assurance program (DBQA) is a
valuable part of a dairy’s bottom line, according to Alan
Frederick, Pennsylvania dairy farmer and Secretary of the
Pennsylvania Beef Council. Speaking in Wednesday’s broadcast,
Frederick said the program made him more aware of when cattle
should be marketed if they can’t be rehabilitated and returned
to the herd. It also taught him how the placement of injection
sites can ruin a piece of meat.
“That
gristle is basically there forever,” he said, and costs
dairymen money whenever a dairy cow goes through the sale barn
because “buyers have a pretty good idea that, that cow may
have injection sites in places that are going to ruin the meat
and therefore they’re not going to pay as much for it.”
He
encourages all dairy producers to participate in the DBQA and
can’t understand why they don’t “jump in with both feet
because, even if you don’t care about anything other than just
putting money in your pocket, that’s reason enough.” He adds
that it’s not hard and “it’s the right thing to do.”
He
talked about the various videos that show cattle going through
sale barns that are total emaciated and “We should not ever
wait that long to send a cow to the sale barn. It doesn’t
advertise well for us (farmers), it costs us money if a cow is
in that bad a shape, she should have been removed from the herd
a month before she got clear down to nothing but skin and bones
or was so lame that she could hardly walk. They’re not making
you any money trying to milk them during that period of time so
why not get rid of them when they have some salvage value to
them.” “The public seeing that kind of stuff go through the
sale barns can’t advertise meat very well.”
Latest World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates Released
Commercial
dairy exports for 2009 were adjusted reflecting stronger
skim-basis sales, but slightly weaker fat-basis sales. Import
forecasts were reduced for 2009. Trade forecasts were unchanged
for 2010. Fat and skim-solids ending stocks were forecast higher
for 2009. Ending stocks for 2010 were raised on a skim-solids
basis but lowered on a fat-basis.
Forecasts
of butter and cheese prices were lowered as milk production
forecasts were raised. However, relatively strong international
demand should support prices for nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey,
the report said.
The
2010 Class III price was lowered from last month as lower
expected cheese prices more than offset stronger whey prices.
Look for a range of $14.75-15.55 per cwt, down from the
$15.15-$15.95 projected a month ago. The 2009 average was
$11.36.
The Class IV price forecast for 2010 was raised from last month as stronger NDM prices more than offset weaker butter prices. The Department estimates a range of $14.70-$15.60, up a dime on both ends. The Class IV averaged $10.89 in 2009. The all milk price was reduced to $16.20-$17.00 for 2010.
Small MILC
Rate Possible?
(January 12, 2010) The MILC payment rate is still projected
at zero, but Robert Cropp Professor Emeritus at the
“You look at February where the futures are, they’re anticipating the cheese market not coming back,” he said.” “I think it will come back better and hold that price up.”
Click Here for Roger Cryan, NMPF projection
Cropp is looking for a much better year in prices in 2010.
He expects milk production to continue to run below year ago
levels with further reduction. He also sees positive signs on
the demand side, both in the restaurant business and the export
market.
Cash block cheese continues to sell below the barrels this
week. Cropp said with the holidays are over, the demand for
blocks are not quite as strong. During the holiday period, a
little more production shifted to block cheese and tightened up
the barrels.
How long will the reverse last between barrels and blocks? “I
imagine you’ll see a correction here in the next two or three
weeks, where the blocks will probably come back higher than the
barrels” He expects the relationship will then to stabilize.
California
February Class 1 Prices Announced
(January
11, 2010) California’s February Class 1 milk price was announced
today by the
California Department of Food and Agriculture at $16.46 per
hundredweight for the north and $16.74 for the south. Both are
down $1.76 and $1.75 respectively from January but $5.19 above a year ago.
Dairy
is part of the child obesity solution
Childhood obesity is a, pardon the pun, growing problem but dairy is part of the
solution, according to Pennsylvania dairy producer and Dairy Management
Incorporated Board member, Paul Meabon. Speaking in Monday’s “DMI Update,”
Meabon said the dairy check off continues to partner with the National Dairy
Council and the National Football League in what is referred to as the Child
Nutrition and Fitness Initiative called “Fuel Up to Play 60,” and focuses on
empowering kids to make smart choices about nutrition and physical activity.
The
NFL brings “star power” to the program, Meabon said, and will help deal with
the obesity issue in kids today. She said that dairy is “part of the solution.
It’s not part of the problem,” and this program “brings it all together,
school principals, teachers, and nurses and teaches children how to eat right
and exercise.”
The program is currently in more than 40,000 schools, with the goal of 60,000 in 2010, she said, and represents 3 million students. She reported that there are several programs for kids to choose from, such as a running club, and the program is a “win-win for dairy farmers and for children.” “They become life-long dairy consumers, as children and as adults.”
Dairy Markets Weekly Review
(January 9, 2010) The first week of trading in 2010 saw cash block cheese fall to $1.41 per pound, down 4 cents on the week but 33 3/4-cents above a year ago. The blocks have lost 29 1/4-cents in the last three weeks.
The
barrels closed the first Friday of 2010 at $1.4325, up a
quarter-cent on the week and 36 1/4-cents above a year ago.
Barrels got as low as $1.03 on January 7, 2009.
Twenty four cars of block traded hands in the first week
of 2010 and 12 of barrel. The NASS-surveyed U.S. block average
hit $1.7004, up 0.9 cent. The barrels averaged $1.4878, down 1.2
cents.
Butter
closed Friday at $1.3450, up 1 3/4-cents on the week and 23 1/2
above a year ago. 28 cars were sold. NASS butter averaged
$1.3370, down 1.9 cents.
Cash Grade A nonfat dry milk held at $1.37 but Extra Grade closed at $1.3850, down 1 1/2-cents on the week. NASS powder averaged $1.2807, down 5.2 cents, and dry whey averaged 38.57 cents, up 1.3 cents on the week.
Advisory
Committee Scheduled To Meet Early This Year
(January
8, 2010) You’ll be pleased and relieved to know that U.S. Ag
Secretary Tom Vilsack has appointed a “committee” to address
dairy policy issues. Vilsack this week named 17 members to a
national Dairy Industry Advisory Committee.
Dairy
Profit Weekly
editor, Dave Natzke, reported Friday that the committee is
scheduled to start meeting early this year and includes nine
dairy producers, four processing industry representatives, and
four individuals representing government, academia, retail and
consumer interests.
Producer
members appointed to the committee are: Erick Coolidge (Pa.),
Timothy den Dulk (Mich.), Debora Erb (N.H.), James Goodman
(Wis.), James Krahn, (Ore.), Edward Maltby (Mass.), Manuel Souza
(Calif.), Ed Welch (Minn.), and James Williams (Ga.).
Representatives
from the processing industry include: Jay Bryant (Va.), Patricia
Stroup (Calif.), Sue Taylor (Colo.), and Robert Wills. (Wis.).
Members
representing state government, retail, academia and consumers
are: Rodney Nilsestuen (Wis.), Robert Schupper (Pa.), Andrew
Novakovic (N.Y.), and Paul Bourbeau (Vt.).
Members
will serve two-year terms and are challenged with looking at
milk price volatility and dairy farmer profitability and
consolidation and to offer suggestions on ways USDA can best
address the needs of a struggling dairy industry.
USDA
actually had two options, Natzke said. In addition to the newly
formed Advisory Committee, the 2008 Farm Bill called for
the creation of federal milk marketing order commission.
However, because Congress failed to approve the necessary
funding for that commission, USDA said it would not create it.
Meanwhile,
Vilsack also announced that USDA and the IRS have agreed to an
electronic exchange of information to ensure farmers receiving
federal farm payments comply with adjusted gross income
provisions established in the of the 2008 Farm Bill.
The
process will allow USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) and
Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) to review data
from tax returns and compare statements to adjusted gross income
(AGI) limits established in the Farm Bill.
No actual tax data will transmitted, according to USDA, and written consent will be required from each producer for this process. No mention was made of what, if anything will be done to producers who do not provide consent. Vilsack said the plan will enhance USDA program integrity by reducing fraud in federal farm programs.
We were talking about many of the same things ten years ago
(January
7, 2010) Many of the issues that the dairy industry struggles
with today were with us even 10 years ago, according to National
Milk’s Chris Galen. Galen pointed out in Thursday’s program
that it’s “ironic that, 10 years ago when the 21st
century started, we were talking about many of the same things
that I think we’re going to be talking a lot about in 2010.”
Federal
orders top the list, according to Galen, even though the market
order system was revamped and changes implemented on in January
2,000. “There’s been tweaks and adjustments and changes in
pooling requirements and various other things over the past 10
years,” he said, “But the net result of all that is a
general sense of dissatisfaction with the status quo and the
feeling that the glass is half empty.”
National
Milk will look to “amend, not end some of the features of the
Federal order system that were not dealt with when the changes
were implemented 10 years ago,” he said.
Another
issue 10 years ago was the dairy price support program which was
extended in the last two farm bills and still exists today but
one of the questions National Milk is asking is, “Is this type
of safety net really the best investment of government
resources? Is it really the best protection of dairy farm
income, or are there some other methods, perhaps using an
insurance program to protect margins, a more effective form of
government support?”
He concluded saying that it was kind of funny that “we still have to learn from history. It’s often a good teacher and some of the things we were dealing with back 10 years ago are things that we have to address in the upcoming year.”
Government Dictate or Market Dictate?
(January
6, 2010) Government dictate or market dictate; that’s the
question the dairy industry struggles with and the International
Dairy Foods Association’s Bob Yonkers challenged DairyLine
listeners in Tuesday’s broadcast to better prepare themselves
for coming ups and downs in milk prices.
He
began by pointing out that as 2009 came to a close, world dairy
markets had rebounded to high price levels not seen prior to
2007's record highs, except for a few months in 2004.
“The
dairy markets of the past three years are likely the first of
many periods to come where prices zoom to high, even record
levels,” Yonkers warned, “Only to fall dramatically to very
low levels.” He said that has resulted in calls by some for
the government to try and predict and regulate how much farm
milk may be produced and marketed, farmer by farmer.
Others
see enormous opportunities for growth, both domestically and
into expanding export markets, according to Yonkers. They oppose
expanded government intervention, he said, and “are willing to
accept the lows in order to benefit from the highs.”
Recognizing
that price swings are an expected part of their businesses,
producers and processors of other agriculture commodities have
long used forward contracts and futures and options to manage
risk Yonkers said, “However the dairy industry has been slow
to adopt those practices.”
He
said it was fortunate that the 2008 Farm Bill renewed what had
been a pilot program between 2000 and 2004 to allow the use of
forward contracts for farm milk under federal order regulation.
“The
past year is a great example of why such tools should be part of
a marketing plan for every dairy farm and processor,” Yonkers
said. “Any dairy business whose economic survival was in
question during the past year's low milk prices and
higher-than-average feed and fuel costs needs to prepare for
such a period to occur in the future.”
“The
business management tools are now available to the dairy
industry,” Yonkers said, “And the number of futures and
options contracts traded for dairy continues to grow as many
make greater use of these risk management tools. If you have not
seriously considered their use before now, make this New Year
the time to start,” he concluded.
Nonfat
dry milk output amounted to 100.7 million pounds, up 9.2
million or 10.1 percent from October, but 33 million or 24.7
percent below a year ago.
Mozzarella cheese output totaled 281.2 million pounds, up
1.2 million pounds or 0.4 percent from October, and 19.6
million or 7.5 percent above a year ago.
Total
Italian type cheese, at 362.7 million pounds, was up 2.2
million pounds or 0.6 percent from October, and 22.3 million
or 6.5 percent above a year ago.
American type
cheese amounted to 332 million pounds, down 15.1 million pounds
or 4.3 percent from October, and down 6.2 million pounds or 1.8
percent from a year ago.
Total cheese output came to 844.2 million pounds, down 17.7
million pounds or 2.1 percent from October, but 15.6 million
pounds or 1.9 percent above a year ago.
Market Analysis with Mary Ledman
(January 5, 2010) The first day of trading in 2010 saw only one change in the cash dairy market in Chicago and that was a quarter-cent gain in barrel cheese. Market analyst Mary Ledman, Principal of Keough Ledman and Associates Inc. in Libertyville, Illinois, said in Tuesday’s DairyLine that she expects the market to trade “sideways” in the first week of the year but sees some possible strength next week as cheese suppliers prepare their bids to sell 31.2 million pounds of cheese to Uncle Sam as part of the emergency aid to dairy farmers passed by Congress last year.
The bids are due January 12 but Ledman said it’s not unusual
to see an uptick in the markets before the bids are reviewed by
USDA. The cheese is to be delivered from March through December
2010, she said.
Dairy
headlines this week include another incident of a melamine
contamination in China of dairy products. Ledman said it’s
unclear at this point as to what effect that will have on dairy
markets. The last incident caused some consumers in China to
stop using dairy products while others looked to imports, rather
than domestically produced products.
She
expects that to happen this time as well but it remains to be
seen what affect that might have. Nonfat dry milk powder markets
are already tight, she said, so we may see some continued
strength in the market due to this incident but it’s too early
to know for sure.
World
block Cheddar cheese is selling around $2.00 per pound right
now. I ask Ledman how that squares with the U.S. price at $1.45
and she pointed out that the Cheddar sold at the Chicago
Mercantile Exchange can include up to 39 per cent moisture. The
global market trades in 35 percent moisture so we’re not
comparing apples to apples when we look at CME prices versus
world market levels.
(January
4, 2010) Dairy Management Incorporated vice president of
Industry Relations, David Pelzer, was back in Monday’s “DMI
Update” to continue his discussion from last week on the
partnership between USDA and the Innovation Center for U.S.
dairy to reduce dairy’s greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent
in the next decade.
Pelzer
said it doesn’t matter if you believe in human-induced climate
change or not. The issue is “getting dairy producers and the
dairy industry ahead of the game,” so if regulations are
instigated in the future regarding this issue, dairy producers
will be in front of it.
This
goal is voluntary, he said, and was set by dairy farmers and
others in the industry “in a very economically viable way to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions and have it be cost effective to
dairy farmers and the rest of the dairy industry.”
Consumers
today care more about health and the environmental impact of the
products they buy, according to Pelzer, “so they will wonder
about the carbon footprint of a gallon of soda versus a gallon
of milk and we’re going to be able to conclusively show that
dairy products, in this case, fluid milk, is not only is
healthier than soda and more nutritious but also has less of a
carbon footprint and we’ll have the data to prove that.”
The
issue needs to be addressed with facts and not emotion or
fiction and Pelzer points out that, following the life cycle
assessment analysis in 2009 on 50 dairy processing plants and
over 500 dairy farms, “we will be able to show in a peer
reviewed scientific journal, data that shows that the carbon
footprint for the dairy industry is something like 2 percent of
all greenhouse gas emissions, a far cry from the claims by some
activist groups of 18-25 percent. “It’s much, much lower
than that and we’re going to have the data to prove that,”
he concluded.
(January
1, 2010) Dairy Profit
Weekly editor, Dave Natzke, echoed Galen’s comments on
Friday by decrying 2009, and began by pointing out that in the
many years that he and I have covered the dairy industry, some
stand out more than others but “2009 will undoubtedly be one
of those used as a measuring stick, both in terms of economic
and psychological impacts.”
He
reported that the 2009 U.S. average milk price will be down
about 33 percent from 2008 and the total money farmers received
for the sale of milk will fall nearly $11 billion. If you spread
that out over 9 million cows, Natzke reported that the decline
equates to about $1,200 for every cow in the U.S. MILC payments
and emergency government dairy aid will only offset about
one-tenth of that, he said.
The
dairy economy of 2009 also had an impact on the geography of
U.S. milk production. You and I are both Wisconsin boys,
and for many years we've been hearing about declining milk
production in the Midwest, and the tremendous growth of in the
West. 2009 is the year that changed, with many western states
posting year-to-year declines, and production in many Midwest
states on the rise. Going forward, we'll see how permanent that
change is.
A
number of factors will determine dairy’s direction in 2010,
according to Natzke. Feed prices, which had been showing signs
of moderating, appear to be on the rise again, he said, and
credit availability will be a factor, especially for dairy
farmers who used up a lot of equity trying to survive in 2009.
2009
dairy cull cow liquidation was up nearly a quarter-million head
from 2008, and many sources predict the number of U.S. dairy
cows could fall below 9 million head for the first time since
2004.
The
wild cards will be what influence any improvement in milk prices
has herd expansions, Natzke said, as well as the availability of
a large number of dairy heifers. The good news is that
international and domestic demand seems to be recovering,
boosting dairy sales, he concluded.