January 2010 Archived Dairy News

January 30, 2010
Milk Feed Price Ratio Shows Slight Increase

Dairy Market Report - January 2010

Alliance of Western Milk Producers

Western United Dairymen Update

Milk Producers Council Weekly Update
 
This Week in Dairy Profit Weekly

2010 Dairy Cow College Session dates set Feb. 1-5

One Dairy Remains in Chicago

Quality Forage Leads to More Profitable Dairy Cows

New Official Holstein International Pedigree Available from Holstein Association USA

Producers Honored For Beef Quality Assurance Commitment
  Beef Board Podcasts

January 29, 2010
World Ag Expo ‘Dairy Profit Seminars’ finalized

MILC Update

Dairy Market Weekly Recap

Lawsuit Against Dean Foods is an Outgrowth of Anti Trust Police Changes

Leprino Foods says it no longer gets milk from dairy accused of abusing cows

Hard work, honesty keep Tetzner's Dairy going strong

Cross Country: Meetings help farmers deal with issues of today

National Competition Honors Cattle Auctioneer & Dairy Producer

Novus announces customized nutrition programs

January 28, 2010

Organizations Share Senators Disapproval of EPA Regulation

Move To Ban "Tail Docking" In New York

Kansas Legislature asked to raise some dairy fees
California Milk Advisory Board 2010 Executive Committee Officers    
IVOMEC® (ivermectin) Challenge Extended For 2010

NZ: Abandon giant dairy plans, urges watchdog
January 27, 2010
Animal Rights Group Releases Video Of NY Farm
  http://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/

Beef Checkoff Offers Positive News in Otherwise Negative Media

New Johne’s Disease Q&A Brochure FREE, Packed with Info
  Q&A Brochure
Dairy downturn reduces demand for young heifers

EPA orders Illinois dairy to stop unauthorized waste discharges

Feb. 1 is deadline to apply for 2010 Fred Stout Experience Awards

More Melamine Tainted Milk Products Pulled from Stores in China 

Dairy Centers Debut in Afghan Province
January 26, 2010

Market Analysis with Alan Levitt

Congressman Blunt to Speak at Dairy Forum

Families take dairy frustration to Capitol

USDA Outlines Potential for Dairy-based Packaging

Sen. Kohl's Statement on DOJ Lawsuit Against Dean Foods Company

Pierson’s suicide highlights dairy farmer's tough situation

Preservation allows Franklin Township family to keep Warren County dairy farm

Ont. dairy farmers urge appeal over raw milk

Blaydon Dairy Farmers of Britain site bought by Medina Dairies

More Tainted Dairy Products Are Found in Chinese Stores

Wimm-Bill-Dann warns, tumbles
January 25, 2010
NY Dairy Farmer's Widow Wants to Keep Farm Going

Most Schools Have Enrolled to 'Fuel Up to Play 60'

NY Dairy Farmer Kills 51 Cows, Commits Suicide
  related
Alliance of Western Milk Producers weekly update

Wisconsin DNR allows major dairy expansion
  related  related
AG Van Hollen: Sues to challenge Dean-Foremost plant acquisition
  related
Read the Dean Foods complaint here

Farmer's plan could be a blueprint to help save New England's dairies

Saving Harvey's Holsteins

Dairy farmers hope for better year

Turning a dairy dream into a thriving specialist business

‘Hali’ Cow: Jersey Wins Dairy Supreme

Feds award $5m for alternative energy

Milk Producers Council Weekly Update

Western United Dairymen Update

USDEC members quick to offer Haiti relief

Six inducted into Bradley County Agricultural Hall of Fame

Jersey Genetic Trends & Implications for Selection Focus of March Seminar

Midwest Regional Dairy Challenge Will Draw 75 Students from 15 Universities
January 22, 2010

December Cold Storage Report

Dairy Markets Weekly Review

MILC Updated

February Federal Order Class I Base Price is $14.84

Dairy Processors Meet in Phoenix

Financial Risk Management Seminar Planned in Chicago

Cross Country: It's ag meeting season

MPCA moves to close odiferous Thief River Falls dairy

Profitability Easier to Attain With Higher Feed Efficiency

January 21, 2010
IDFA Dairy Forum 2010: CEO Tipton outlines challenges opportunities

Dairy Farmers Help Haiti

Guest Editorial: Are you satisfied with $13.00 Milk?

Penn State Dairy Outlook - January 2010

Save the Col Poly Cows - Fundraiser Next Week

Letter from Langdon - Overseeing Livestock

Wisconsin cheese researcher Johnson receives Award 

Haubenschild is Innovative Dairy Farmer of the Year

Neighbors Concerned About Mega Dairy

Wisconsin Dairy Cows Busier Than Others
January 20, 2010

Market Analysis with Dave Kurzawski

Latest Dairy Outlook Released

Mega Farm Dairy Proposed in Taylor County

Upcoming Wisconsin Milk Marketing Board Elections

Low Milk Prices Cause $1.1 Billion Hit on State Farm Income in '09

National Beef Council Considers 'Thinning The Herd'

Warren Buffett: Kraft's £11.9bn takeover of Cadbury is a 'bad deal'
January 19, 2010

Milk Production Down 0.8 Percent

Market Analysis with Bill Brooks

Deadline Today for Milk Payment
   Related
Young Dairy Farmer Bucks Economic Trend

PDPW to Hold Annual Business Conference in March

Australia: Dairy Farmers consider future as tough times continue
January 18, 2010

Dairy's Presence on the Internet is Increasing

Milk Producers Council update

Western United Dairymen update

Conditions ease from 'disastrous' to 'painful' for local dairy farmers

Buy local to preserve Vermont farms

WA: Stanwood veterinarian had wide reputation in dairy medicine

January 15, 2010
USDA Joins National Dairy Council and NFL to Improve Health and Wellness in Schools

Dairy Market Weekly Recap

Higher Feed Costs Could Moderate What Should Be a Better Financial Year

Mid-Week Milk Production Update

N.M. dairyman plans milk dump

Three from Wisconsin Named to Dairy Industry Advisory Committee

Missouri Dairy association meeting Jan. 29-30

Groups propose disease traceability ID system

Dairy & Beef Industry Animal Husbandry Conference Slated

Utah's 2010 dairy ambassadors named

Dairy owner: Fighting city annexation costly

Is It Harmful To The Cow Or Her Udder To Wean In Below Zero Weather?

Chatham anaerobic digester project gets $1 million boost

ID: Otter proposes delaying funds for research center

PA:
Hoeffel announces plan for agriculture
Dairy cows prepped for Pennsylvania Farm Show ring

Elanco Forms Food Safety Business Unit

Foot-and-mouth disease outbreak not a threat to demand, exports

Alchemy Announces Sponsorship of 2010 IDFA Dairy Forum

Young's Dairy offers anniversary specials

New Zealand: Top Advisor Exits Dairy Industry's Role

More accountability for Dairy Australia
January 14, 2010

Update on National FARM Progam

Jersey Production In 2009 Sets New Records in all Categories

Federal funds on the way for dairy genetic exports

In The Cattle Markets: New Year New Hope

Ontario tops up Johne's prevention program

Philadelphia protests Pa. milk surcharge

Ireland - The dairy crisis
January 13, 2010

Dairy Beef Quality Assurance Program 

Wis. committee to take up raw milk

Grocer boosts region’s dairy farms

Loan guarantees to assist 130 rural businesses

China Prosecutors Take Dairy Case

Road to be repaved for dairy operation

30-year-old Lamar County dairy farmer elected to national position
January 12, 2010

Latest World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates Released

Small MILC Rate Possible?

Dairy market reform: Farmers need elected officials to lend a hand

Future of Virginia milk in jeopardy

The 94th annual Pennsylvania Farm Show

Hamels makes 'Pitch for Dairy'
January 11, 2010

California February Class 1 Prices Announced
 
Dairy is part of the child obesity solution

Western United Dairymen weekly update

Milk Producers Council weekly update

CA: Local dairy farmers to serve on USDA advisory committee

NY:
Madrid dairy farmer to run for Legislature seat
Forum to examine downturn in Wis. agriculture

Dairy Focus: Dipping in cold weather

Demand drives cattle outlook for 2010

Valley dairies go green, harness methane for energy -- and cash

What's in a bottle of Pa. milk? Inequities

I-29 Dairy Conference Sustains Dairy Families, Farms

L
ocal dairy farmers are getting paid what they where 20 years ago
Yakima Co. dairy farmers expect a tough future

Canada: Cow co-op's raw milk 'highly contaminated'

China: Dairy Probe Began Almost 11 Months Before Being Disclosed

January 10, 2010

Dairy is part of the child obesity solution

Western United Dairymen weekly update

Milk Producers Council weekly update

CA: Local dairy farmers to serve on USDA advisory committee

NY:
Madrid dairy farmer to run for Legislature seat
Forum to examine downturn in Wis. agriculture

Dairy Focus: Dipping in cold weather

Demand drives cattle outlook for 2010

valley dairies go green, harness methane for energy -- and cash

What's in a bottle of Pa. milk? Inequities

I-29 Dairy Conference Sustains Dairy Families, Farms

L
ocal dairy farmers are getting paid what they where 20 years ago
Yakima Co. dairy farmers expect a tough future

Canada: Cow co-op's raw milk 'highly contaminated'

China: Dairy Probe Began Almost 11 Months Before Being Disclosed

Friday, January 8, 2010

Dairy Markets Weekly Review

Advisory Committee Scheduled To Meet Early This Year

New Dairy Industry Panel to Include Four Wisconsin Reps.

Milk prices paid to dairy farmers leveling off but for some relief is too late

USDA’s Ag Research Service Purchases Fluidigm Solution 

Cozy up to the Pennsylvania Farm Show

Mining Brown Gold For Dairy Farmers

Local farmer presents talk at Ag Society meeting

Farm Accident Kills Lynden Dairy Worker

Louisiana cattle moved to most sheltered pastures

Butter sculpture unveiled
  Related

Organic Center names new director
  Related

Dairy farmers feel pinch, empty barns

The abolition of the Milk Marketing Board did not help UK dairy farmers

UK: Milk: do we need a dairy godmother?
Thursday, January 7, 2010

We were talking about many of the same things ten years ago

News for Dairy Co-Ops

NMPF Staff Reorganization to Augment Efforts on Dairy Industry Issues in 2010
 

USDA's Dairy Industry Advisory Committee  

Dairy Cattle Focus: Dipping In Cold Weather

Local cattlemen prepare for arctic blast

Forum to unveil 2010 forecast for Wisconsin's agriculture economy
 
Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Government Dictate or Market Dictate?

Dairy farmer plans to pamper cows with waterbeds, music

Iowa State University Local Dairy Days Feature Farm Profitability

Soybeans, Corn Rise as Cold Weather May Increase Feed Demand

Former Ontario dairy owner receives state recognition

Strategy to eradicate Johne's disease needed now

Turning research into results

Markets still mixed for NZ Dairy Produce
Tuesday, January 5, 2010

November Dairy Products Report

Market Analysis with Mary Ledman

Denmark's ban holds lesson

US Jersey Reports Back-to-Back Record Years

Dairy Cattle Feed Efficiency: What Does It Mean To You?

A Home Grown Winner

Farm unleashes cow power

Rough 2009 for dairy farmers

One Health Initiative Center Stage at NIAA’s 2010 Annual Meeting

Westchester Foundation Ag Scholarship Applications Due February 1st

ImmuCell Hires Director of Sales and Marketing
Monday, January 4, 2010

Doesn't Matter If You Believe In Humane-Induced Climate Change Or Not

Midwest Dairy Association Sets District Meetings

Big Farms Might Play Larger Roles in Organic Milk Production

Keeping dairy farms part of the landscape

Team helps Perry dairy farm run s-mooo-thly

Neb. dairy farm recovering from roof collapse

Shanghai dairy shut after melamine scare: report
Happy New Year!
Alliance of Western Milk Producers

A Number of Factors Will Determine Dairy's Direction in 2010

Dairy Market Report for December
- Roger Cryan, NMPF

Mid-Week Milk Production Update

For farmers, federal aid checks ease pain, but not worries
Debt hangs over dairymen

Cattle Farmers Struggle Under High Commodity Prices

Jersey Association Reports Back-to-Back Record Years

Cross Country: Dairy farmers hoping for a better year than 2009

ConAgra sues Dean Foods over Swiss Miss trademark

A Fitting Job for the Farm Show

Milk Feed Price Ratio Shows Slight Increase
(January 29 30, 2009) The January Milk-Feed Price Ratio is 2.45, up from December's revised estimate of 2.42, according to USDA’s “Ag Prices” report issued Friday afternoon, and compares to 1.60 in January of 2009. 
 
The All Milk Price was estimated at $16.50 per hundredweight, unchanged from last month's estimate, but $3.20 above a year ago. 

Corn averaged $3.45 per bushel, down 14 cents from December, and 91 cents below a year ago. The soybean price, at $9.49 per bushel, was down 31 cents from December, and 48 cents below a year ago. Alfalfa baled hay was $113.00 per ton, up $3.00 from December, but $35.00 below a year ago.

Dairy Market Weekly Recap
(January 29, 2010) The cash market saw block cheese move higher for the third week in a row while butter and nonfat dry milk plunged the final week of January. Cash block cheese closed Friday at $1.5150 per pound, up 3 1/2-cents on the week and 36 1/2-cents above a year ago. Barrel closed at $1.5050, unchanged on the week, and 39 cents above a year ago. Ten carloads of each traded hands on the week. The NASS-surveyed block price averaged $1.4644 across the U.S., down 8.4 cents. Barrel averaged $1.4769, down 0.3 cent.  

Butter closed the week at $1.33, 13 3/4-cents below the previous week, but

22 3/4-cents above a year ago. Thirteen cars were sold on the week. NASS butter averaged $1.3854, up 4.6 cents.

 

Cash Grade A nonfat dry milk closed Friday at $1.19, down 11 cents, and Extra Grade closed at $1.24, down 6 cents. NASS powder averaged $1.0917, down a whopping 19.6 cents, and dry whey averaged 38.66 cents, down 0.3 cent.

Lawsuit Against Dean Foods is an Outgrowth of Anti Trust Police Changes
(January 29, 2010) The U.S. Department of Justice and three states have filed an antitrust lawsuit against Dean Foods, challenging its 2009 acquisition of two milk processing plants in Wisconsin. Dairy Profit Weekly editor Dave Natzke reported in Friday’s DairyLine that the Justice Department has been joined by attorneys general in Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan in filing the lawsuit against Deans, the largest fluid milk bottler in the United States.  

The suit challenges Dean's 2009 purchase of two fluid milk plants from Foremost Farms, a Wisconsin-based dairy cooperative.

 

The complaint, filed in federal court in the Eastern District of Wisconsin, alleges the transaction will lessen competition in the region’s fluid and school milk markets. Court documents say the addition of the two plants has given Deans a 57 percent share of the fluid milk market in the region.

 

The suit requests Dean’s divest assets and interests it acquired when purchasing plants in Waukesha and DePere, Wisconsin. It also asked that Deans be required to give a 30-day notice when making future acquisitions.

 

Foremost Farms is not named in the suit, Natzke said, and has declined comment, saying it followed all laws and regulations related to the sale. Foremost with 2,300 dairy farmer members in seven states, continues to provide milk to Dean Foods through a supply contract, according to Natzke.

 

Deans said it will defend itself vigorously against the complaint, saying the transaction benefited Wisconsin dairy farmers by providing a stable and growing outlet for their milk, and produced cost savings for its milk customers.

 

The lawsuit is an outgrowth of antitrust policy changes since the Obama Administration took office. The Department of Justice and USDA have scheduled several public "workshops" beginning this spring to explore competition and regulatory issues in the agriculture industry and kick off with a general workshop in Iowa, in March, followed by a dairy industry workshop, set for June, in Wisconsin. The workshops will analyze agricultural markets nationally, and look at the discrepancies between the prices received by farmers and the prices paid by consumers, Natzke concluded.


Organizations Share Senators Disapproval of EPA Regulation

(January 28, 2010) A coalition of 138 agricultural organization, including National Milk, have sent a letter to Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) supporting her introduction of a resolution of disapproval under the Congressional Review Act regarding the decision of the Environmental Protection Agency to move ahead on regulating carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act.

 

National Milk’s Chris Galen said in Thursday’s broadcast that this is the next step in a process that began late last year when the EPA concluded that greenhouse gases are a danger to public health and moved forward with a process to regulate gas emissions like carbon dioxide and methane under the Clean Air Act.

 

The letter supports the prevention of EPA from doing this because these agricultural organizations believe the Clean Air Act is not the appropriate way to establish greenhouse gas policy and could lead to a variety of costly unintended consequences. He added that others, not involved in farming, also share such concern and do not favor creation of a carbon tax or anything similar.

 

The letter points out that the Clean Air Act was never really intended to deal with global warming or to mitigate greenhouse gases so there is no precedent for this, Galen argued, other than a few years ago the U.S. Supreme Court handed down a ruling stating that the EPA had the power to regular greenhouse gases.

 

Galen said they are trying to prevent that from happening and are concerned that another approach to this would be a “cap and trade” system but it doesn’t appear that Congress will move aggressively on that in 2010 but the main concern is making certain that the EPA doesn’t unilaterally move down a path of unintended consequences by regulating greenhouse gases using the Clean Air Act.”

Beef Checkoff Offers Positive News in Otherwise Negative Media

(January 27, 2010) The Beef Checkoff got high marks from another member of the dairy industry this week. Richard Silacci, who manages the dairy farm at Cal Poly, spoke in Wednesday’s “Beef Board Update” and discussed the emphasis on quality and how it applies to farmers. He said the checkoff provides education to the public regarding dairy cows and how they are managed.

 

“A lot of the news that consumers are seeing is usually negative and that winds up on television and radio,” Silacci said, “And with the check off dollars we see positive publicity.” Information as to what really goes on, on the farm is made known, he said, “and the good things we do that insure beef quality.”

 

The check off also educates farmers and that’s what is taught to student s at Cal Poly, according to Silacci. The farm milks about 170 cows of two breeds, Silacci said, and they teach students that, when giving vaccinations or injections, certain sites on the cow are better than others to improve the quality of the beef when the cow goes to the slaughter house and, in turn, is sold to consumers.

 

Students are also taught the opportune time to cull a cow, he said, so they don’t let a cow get to the point where she is “unhealthy looking and skinny.”

 

Sixty percent of U.S. schools have enrolled in the “Fuel Up to Play 60” campaign and Pennsylvania dairy producer and vice chair of the National Dairy Board, Paula Meabon talked about it in Monday’s “DMI Update. The campaign got some extra press at a January 15 news conference which announced the partnership of the USDA, National Dairy Council, and the National Football League.

Market Analysis with Alan Levitt

(January 26, 2010) Alan Levitt, editor of the CME’s Daily Dairy Report said in Tuesday’s broadcast that we’re seeing an uneven recovery in the markets. They’re still unsettled, he said, and he expects ups and downs for the next couple months.

 

He didn’t see a big influence in Monday’s trading from Friday’s Cold Storage report. Cheese and butter stocks are well above a year ago and hang over the market and may the reason the recovery is uneven.

 

Another issue we’re dealing with, he said, is the fact that, even though milk production nationally was down more than a half percent in the second half of 2009, output in Wisconsin and Minnesota was actually up about 4 percent where most of the milk goes to cheese and is skewed toward American type. He warned that “We may not see those cheese stocks go down as quickly as we otherwise might, given where milk production is trending.”

 

Commenting on the drop in cash powder prices, Levitt said so much of that is based on what’s going on globally and the global markets have softened since December. In the last six weeks, cheese, butter, and powder prices are down 15-20 cents per pound and it seems like, once we got through the holidays buyers got into a pause mode, waiting to see what happens to the spring flush in the U.S. and Europe before buying too far ahead.  

Most Schools Have Enrolled to 'Fuel Up to Play 60'

(January 25, 2010) Sixty percent of U.S. schools have enrolled in the “Fuel Up to Play 60” campaign and Pennsylvania dairy producer and vice chair of the National Dairy Board, Paula Meabon talked about it in Monday’s “DMI Update. The campaign got some extra press at a January 15 news conference which announced the partnership of the USDA, National Dairy Council, and the National Football League.

 

The NFL brings “star power” to the program, Meabon said, and all 32 teams are engaged. “USDA’s stamp of approval makes it a great program to help the youth fight against obesity,” Meabon said, “And that’s what this program is all about. It’s for our kids.”

 

Students can choose from various activities such as a basketball club or a running club, a fitness program for 60 minutes a day. Nutrition guidance is also part of the program, she said, and dairy is a big part of that, along with fruits, vegetables, and whole grains. She called it a “win-win for our children.”

 

The kickoff of the program was last October, according to Meabon, and 40,000 schools were involved. Today it numbers 58,000 and growing, and she stated that “Schools must sign up themselves so it’s a commitment the schools are taking upon themselves for their youth.”  

December Cold Storage Report

(January 22, 2010) December butter stocks totaled 133.7 million pounds, down 9 million pounds or 6 percent from November but 14.7 million pounds or 12 percent above December 2008, according to preliminary data in the Agriculture Department’s latest Cold Storage report issued Friday afternoon.

 

The American cheese inventory, at 586.8 million pounds, was up 3.7 million pounds or 1 percent from November and 48.7 million pounds or 9 percent above a year ago.

 

Total cheese stocks amounted to 966.9 million pounds, up 5.2 million pounds or 1 percent from November, and 114.9 million or 13 percent above those a year ago. 

Dairy Markets Weekly Review

(January 22, 2010) Cash dairy prices were mixed in the Martin Luther King Day holiday shortened week. Block cheese closed Friday at $1.48 per pound, up 6 1/2-cents on the week and 40 1/2-cents above a year ago. Barrel closed at $1.5050, up 4 cents on the week, and 40 1/2-cents above a year ago. Four cars of block traded hands on the week and one of barrel. The NASS-surveyed U.S. average block price lost 9.3 cents, slipping to $1.5483. Barrel averaged $1.4794, up 0.1 cent.

 

Butter went in the other direction, closing Friday at $1.4675, down 5 3/4-cents on the week, but still 36 1/2-cents above a year ago. Fourteen cars were sold. NASS butter averaged $1.3391, up 0.9 cent. NASS nonfat dry milk averaged $1.2879, down 6.3 cents, and dry Whey averaged 39.02 cents, up 0.2 cent.

February Federal Order Class I Base Price is $14.84

(January 22, 2010) The Agriculture Department announced the February Federal order Class I base milk price this morning at $14.84 per hundredweight, down 19 cents from January but $4.12 above February 2009. The Class IV advanced pricing factor was the “higher of” in driving the Class I value and there will be no MILC payment to producers.

 

The two-week NASS-surveyed butter price averaged $1.3350 per pound, down 14.7 cents from January. Nonfat dry milk averaged $1.3201, up a nickel. Cheese averaged $1.5578, down 1.9 cents, and dry whey averaged 38.93 cents, up 2.6 cents from January.

 

 


Advanced Pricing Factors

Feb 2010 Jan 2010 Dec 2009
Class I Base  $14.84/cwt. $15.03/cwt. $13.99/cwt.

*The Base Skim Milk Class I: 

$10.27/cwt. $9.82/cwt. $9.31/cwt.

Class III skim:

$10.12/cwt. $9.56/cwt. $9.31/cwt.

Class IV skim:

$10.27/cwt. $9.82/cwt. $8.44/cwt.

**Butterfat

$1.4090/lb. $1.5874/lb. $1.4310/lb.

Class II Skim price:

$10.97/cwt. $/cwt. $9.14/cwt.

Class II NFS price:

$1.2189/lb. $/lb. $1.0156/lb.

2-week Product Price Averages:

 

Feb 2010 Jan 2010 Dec 2009

Butter

$1.3350/lb. $1.4823/lb. $1.3532/lb.

NFDM

$1.3201/lb. $1.2701/lb. $1.1147/lb.

Cheese

$1.5578/lb. $1.5764/lb. $1.5113/lb.

Dry Whey

$0.3893/lb $0.3629/lb. $0.3452/lb.
 

Dairy Processors Meet in Phoenix
(January 22, 2010) The nation’s dairy processors gathered in Phoenix this week for the International Dairy Foods Association’s annual Dairy Forum. Dairy Profit Weekly editor Dave Natzke reported in Friday’s broadcast that, “Thanks to low milk prices that lowered input costs, 2009 was a much better financial year for many of the nearly 900 people representing manufacturing and processing sectors of the dairy industry attending this year’s forum. However, with the dairy price volatility that made dairy farmers winners in 2007 and dairy processors winners in 2009, there was recognition it's time to "fix" the system.”   

In her annual address, IDFA president and CEO Connie Tipton reviewed policies and politics affecting the dairy industry in this new decade. First on her list was government economic and social policies that negatively impact the business climate. Second was regulations and government mandates, especially in the area of food safety and labeling. Third was changes in diet and nutrition guidelines, including policies impacting federal and school feeding programs that could limit dairy.

 

Fourth was energy and environmental policies that will change dairy processes, marketing and business strategies, fifth, dairy policy “safety nets” and trade policies that limit dairy trade potential, and sixth, changes in consumer trends that will require increased innovation and consumer education.

 

Tipton warned federal agencies such as FDA, EPA and USDA will play a larger role in the dairy industry, Natzke reported, and regulate everything from greenhouse gas emissions to food safety to dairy ingredient standards.

 

The recent economic downturn has resulted in changes to consumer eating habits, Tipton noted, with more people eating a greater portion of their meals at home. Consumers are also more frugal, according to Tipton, and want more information on the source and health/wellness aspects of their food.

 

“Dairy has a good story to tell,” Tipton said, “And should promote itself better, while adjusting to the changing tastes and lifestyles of consumers.”

 

Dairy Farmers Help Haiti

(January 21, 2010) Dairy farmers, through their Cooperative Working Together (CWT) program will donate $100,000 to the American Red Cross to assist the aid and recovery effort in Haiti. National Milk’s Chris Galen reported in Thursday’s DairyLine that this crisis has little precedent in recent decades. Dairy farmers in the past have given generously to domestic and international relief efforts, Galen said, and, given the devastation in Haiti and no functioning government and very little infrastructure left standing, CWT believes that a cash donation to the Red Cross is the most effective way to help people there.

 

When asked if consideration was made for CWT to purchase dairy products and ship them to Haiti, Galen said, when one considers the sights on the news, and there being little to no government, food or water, electricity, or functioning port, it would be a challenge to get products down there. CWT is not a logistics organization, he said, so the best way is to make a monetary contribution.

 

“It will take months and years for Haiti to recover from this,” Galen said, “And at that point we can have a longer term conversation about how best to get dairy products to people there.” He pointed out that Haiti was a recipient of products sold through the CWT “so there is a relationship already between CWT and commercial dairy buyers in Haiti but the focus now in on the short term and we’ll see what happens longer term with respect to commercial export opportunities.”

 

Market Analysis with Dave Kurzawski

(January 20, 2010) The first day of trading following the Martin Luther King Day holiday saw block cheese jump 4 cents, to $1.4550 per pound. The blocks gained a penny and a half but butter dropped 2 1/2 cents. The markets were anticipating the December Milk Production report that afternoon.

 

Downes-O’Neill dairy broker, Dave Kurzawski, said in Wednesday’s broadcast that “The price of cheese is a little too cheap right now.” He said there’s good, legitimate demand for both cheese and butter and he believes the cheese price will make its way back up to the $1.50 level or higher now that we’ve worked through the holiday cheese.

 

The futures market is already pricing that, according to Kurzawski, who warned producers against thinking that there’s no ceiling on the futures price right now.

 

He adds that it’s critical for producers to understand what their cost of doing business is for 2010 before they do anything in risk management strategy. Ideally, Kurzawski wants producers to have a floor price under the market by buying $14 put options for 20 cents a month, making a $13.80 floor price for the balance of the year, and “let the market give you whatever it’s going to give you above that but at least have a worst case scenario plan in place for 2010.”

 

Kurzawski says producers are expressing more interest this year in futures trading, or at least learning more about the tools that are available to them. He said we’re seeing very volatile markets as they have been the past couple years and will continue to be and he believes both banks and producers “need to understand how to use these tools going forward.” “Whether or not they do is another question,” he concluded, “but they need to educate themselves.” For more information, call Kurzawski at 1-800-231-3089.

 

Latest Dairy Outlook Released
(January 20, 2010) USDA projects 2009/10 corn and soybean meal prices at $3.40 to $3.85 a bushel and $265 to $315 per ton, respectively in the Agriculture Department's latest Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook issued this morning. The moderation in forecast feed prices compared with the last 2 years helps boost the milk/feed price ratio and the profit outlook for U.S. dairy producers in the near future. The U.S. dairy herd continues a moderate contraction that is likely to continue throughout 2010. Herd size is forecast to average just below 9 million head this year, down from 9.2 million in 2009.

Lower expected feed prices should help boost production per cow that is expected to increase by a relatively robust 1.9 percent this year. The milk-feed price ratio is not expected to reach 2.5, a range that typically signals a steady state in dairy cow numbers, until the end of 2010. While the worst of the economic contraction is over, many producers are not in a financial position to consider herd expansion at this time.

After a year of culling, the lower average age of the dairy herd should also help boost output per cow, since it is younger, more productive cows that will remain. USDA projects 2010 milk production at 188.4 billion pounds, which would represent a further decline from the 2009 lower production.

Cheese prices are expected to strengthen throughout 2010 as economic recovery proceeds and milk supplies tighten. Cheese prices are expected to average $1.570 to $1.650 per pound in 2010, a rise from the $1.2966 per pound average posted for 2009. USDA’s December Cold Storage report placed total cheese stocks at the end of November at 961,376 pounds, 117 percent of year-earlier levels.

Butter prices, like cheese prices, are expected to rise through 2010 and are forecast to average $1.390 to $1.500 per pound, well above the $1.2096 average price for 2009. Butter stocks were 142,175 pounds, 119 percent of November 2008’s level. Lower expected milk production in 2010 should reduce both cheese and butter production this year compared with last year, helping to support prices and drawing down stocks.

Exports on a skims basis are forecast to rise to 25.5 million pounds and reach 4.8 billion pounds on a fats basis. Exports of nonfat dry milk (NDM) and skim milk powder (SMP) are expected to rise in 2010 to 660 million pounds, a recovery from 2009, but still below 2008.

Cheese and cheese product exports are expected to rise in 2010 to about 245 million pounds, and butter and butter fat exports are expected to climb to 71 million pounds. Continued improvement in exports will be a significant factor in the price outlook, especially for skim milk powders. In addition, domestic use on both a fat and skims-solids basis is expected to rise just over 1 percent in 2010.

Higher demand, both foreign and domestic, along with reduced production should tighten milk equivalent stock on both a fats and skims basis by year’s end. Year-end stocks are expected to fall to 8.85 billion pounds from 11.1 billion pounds milk equivalent on a fat basis. On a skims basis, ending stocks are projected to tighten to 9.5 billion pounds from 11.0 billion at the end of 2009.

The strengthening in dairy product prices translates into higher prices for milk in all classes in 2010 compared with 2009. The Class IV price is forecast at $14.75 to $15.60 per cwt, substantially above 2009’s average of $10.89 per cwt. The Class III price is expected to rise to $14.75 to $15.55 per cwt, up from 2009’s $11.36 per cwt average. The all milk price is forecast to average $16.20 to $17.00 per cwt, up from $12.79 per cwt in 2009.

Milk Production Down 0.8 Percent
(January 19, 2010) Milk production in the 23 major States during December totaled 14.6 billion pounds, down 0.8 percent from December 2008. November revised production at 14.0 billion pounds, was down 0.8 percent from November 2008. The November revision represented an increase of 24 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. 

Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,758 pounds for December, 29 pounds above December 2008. 

The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.31 million head, 206,000 head less than December 2008, and unchanged from November 2009. 

California was down 4.6 percent, due to 76,000 less cows and a 10 pound drop per cow from a year ago. Wisconsin was up 4.3 percent, thanks to a 65 pound gain per cow and 4,000 more cows. New York was down 0.3 percent. Cow numbers were off 15,000 but output was up 35 pounds per cow. Idaho was up 0.4 percent, with a decrease of 4,000 cows, but output was up 20 pounds per cow. Pennsylvania output was up 0.7 percent from a year ago, on a 40 pound gain per cow but 10,000 less cows, and Minnesota was up 3.2 percent on a 45 gain per cow and 2,000 more cows.
 
The biggest increase was Wisconsin, up 4.3 percent. Iowa was next, up 3.6 percent, followed by Minnesota up 3.2 percent. The biggest decline occurred in Colorado, down 11.1 percent due to a 14,000 decline in cow numbers. Arizona was next, down 10.9 percent with 22,000 fewer cows. Missouri followed with a 8 percent loss. 

October - December Milk Production down 1.0 Percent 
Milk production in the U.S. during the October - December quarter totaled 46.2 billion pounds, down 1.0 percent from the October - December quarter last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the quarter was 9.09 million head, 243,000 head less than the same period last year.
 

State by State

Milk Cows 
Change from Dec 2008

Output Per Cow 
Change from
Dec 2008

Milk Production
Change from
Dec 2008

Arizona

-22,000

+15 lbs.

-10.9%

California

-76,000

-10 lbs.

-4.6%

Colorado

-14,000

-10 lbs. 

-11.1%

Florida

-6,000

+45 lbs. 

-2.2%

Idaho

-4,000

+20 lbs. 

+0.4%

Illinois

-1,000  

+20 lbs. 

+0.6%

Indiana

+2,000 

+10 lbs.

+1.8%

Iowa

Unchanged  

+60 lbs. 

+3.6% 

Kansas

-9,000 

+45 lbs.

-5.1%    

Michigan

Unchanged  

+45 lbs.

+2.4%

Minnesota

+2,000

+45 lbs.

+3.2%

Missouri

-6,000

-40  lbs.

-8.0% 

New Mexico

-17,000

+40 lbs.

-3.2% 

New York

-15,000

+35 lbs.

-0.3%

Ohio

-4,000

+40 lbs. 

+1.2%

Oregon

-1,000  

+35 lbs.

+1.1%

Pennsylvania

-10,000 

+40 lbs.

+0.7%  

Texas

-19,000 

+80 lbs.

+0.1%

Utah

-2,000 

Unchanged 

-2.7% 

Vermont

-5,000

+20 lbs.     

-2.4%

Virginia

-2,000

+30 lbs. 

Unchanged 

Washington

-1,000 

+45 lbs.

+1.9%

Wisconsin

+4,000

+65 lbs.

+4.3%

23 State Total

-206,000

+29 lbs.

-0.8%


Market Analysis with Bill Brooks

(January 19, 2010) Downes-O’Neill dairy economist Bill Brooks looks for more gains in the cash cheese market in the Martin Luther King Day-holiday shortened week but butter is “anyone’s guess.” Speaking in Tuesday’s broadcast, Brooks said the strong gains In butter, particularly on Friday January 15, may not be sustainable. He said “this is occurring at a time when we are seeing growing butter inventories but butter is a storable commodity that somebody might need and the folks who have it aren’t willing to let go of it unless they achieve a certain price.”

 

Losses in the cash nonfat dry milk market match losses in price reports from USDA’s Dairy Market News. The pipeline has likely been refilled, according to Brooks, and Southeast Asian countries, especially China is “coming up on a new year’s celebration which will curtail export business activity into that region where a lot of dairy products get shipped to.”

 

It shouldn’t be a surprise to see some weakness in powder, he said, but he doesn’t expect prices to fall anywhere near support levels any time soon.

 

Global dairy prices are softening, according to Brooks, though part of that may be tied to currency exchange in converting it to U.S. dollars, but added; “there are a lot of dairy products in storage and a lot is in Europe in governmental hands but still weighs on the market.”  


Dairy's Presence on the Internet is Increasing

(January 15, 2010) “Dairy is having an increasing presence on the internet, where we belong,” according to Dairy Management Incorporated David Pelzer on Monday’s “DMI Update.” The topic was so-called “social media,” and how information is exchanged via internet sources.

 

He pointed out that among 18-34 year olds, 60 percent said they get the majority of their news from the internet so that is why the Dairy Checkoff has a presence there to tell dairy’s story.

 

The check off has sites such as “My Dairy” at http://www.mydairycow.com, organized by dairy producers and dairy advocates who are active on Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter to deliver positive messages to consumers.

 

Topics include animal welfare and care, on-farm practices, environmental issues, even nutrition issues. The National Dairy Council blog at www.thedairyreport.com also has the latest information on dairy nutrition.

 

Pelzer reported that traffic is good at these sites as more and more people get on the internet and use it as an information source.

 

Dairy Market Weekly Recap
(January 15, 2010) All eyes are on the cash dairy markets as three weeks of declines in block cheese came to an end and the butter market started to heat up. The second full week of 2010 saw the block price close at $1.4150 per pound, up a half-cent on the week, and 34 1/2-cents above that week a year ago. Barrel closed Friday at $1.4650, up 3 1/4-cents on the week, 37 1/2-cents above a year ago, and a nickel above the blocks. Nineteen cars of block traded hands on the week and only three of barrel. The NASS-surveyed U.S. average block price dropped 6 cents, to $1.6407. Barrel averaged $1.4783, down 0.9 cent.

 

Butter closed the week at $1.5250, up 18 cents, and 41 1/4-cents above a year ago. Twenty six cars were sold. NASS butter averaged $1.3302, down 0.7 cent.

 

Cash Grade A and Extra Grade nonfat dry milk closed the week at $1.30 per pound, down 7 and 8 1/2 cents respectively. NASS nonfat dry milk averaged $1.3507, up 7 cents, and dry whey averaged 38.79 cents, down 0.2 cent.

Higher Feed Costs Could Moderate What Should Be a Better Financial Year
(January 15, 2010) With last year’s cool growing season and delayed harvest, it's been hard to get a handle on 2009 totals for major crops but several USDA reports released this week help clear the picture and provide a preview of dairy feed costs in 2010, according to Dairy Profit Weekly editor Dave Natzke in Friday’s broadcast.
 

USDA released final 2009 Crop Production, as well as updated Grain Stocks and World Ag Supply & Demand Estimates reports, indicating both corn and soybean harvests were the largest on record, Natzke reported.

 

“Thanks to a record-high average yield of more than 165 bushels per acre, corn production totaled 13.2 billion bushels,” he said. Record-high soybean acreage pushed the total soybean harvest to 3.36 billion bushels. But, USDA raised 2009-2010 marketing year average prices despite the large crops, according to Natzke, due to strong domestic and export demand and use.

 

The mid-range farm price for corn is projected at $3.70 per bushel; the soybean price is projected at $9.65 per bushel; and the soybean meal price was projected at $290 per short ton.

 

Those higher prices could moderate what should be a better financial year for dairy farmers, according to John Wilson, senior vice president of marketing and industry affairs for Dairy Farmers of America (DFA). Wilson said the "new normal" for corn prices will be in the $3.50-$4.50 per bushel range. So, even though DFA projects a $3 increase in milk prices in 2010, to $16.13 per hundredweight, higher feed costs will mean most producers will remain at break-even levels.

 

USDA's latest crop report also summarized 2009 hay and forage crops, according to Natzke. Overall dry hay production was up slightly from last year, and dairy farmers entered the new year with larger hay inventories. Production of other haylages and corn silage is down slightly, but overall supplies, combined with declining dairy and beef cows numbers, is helping bring hay and forage prices down from 2008 levels, Natzke concluded.  

 

Update on National FARM Progam

(January 14, 1010) DairyLine listeners got an update on National Milk’s FARM program (Farmers Assuring Responsible Management) in Thursday’s broadcast from Chris Galen. The program was unveiled at World Dairy Expo in 2008 and is online at www.nationaldairyfarm.com. The program is a series of standards that can be implemented on dairy farms if you want to affix your products with the National Dairy Farm logo,

 

National Milk is working this year with the dairy CARES program in California, according to Galen, to make the national FARM program available and workable there. He said there’s been a lot of attention on animal welfare issues, particularly on the West Coast and “because we are in a post Proposition 2 environment in California, I think the folks there recognize that this particular dairy FARM program provides a way for farms there to independently verify their animal husbandry practices.”

 

Galen said they are also working in other parts of the country “with the backdrop that more attention is being paid to animal welfare and there’s more criticism of what’s happening on farms today so it’s important for us to play offense on this issue by having a program that’s been developed by the industry but also has independent verification to assure consumers about the conditions under which dairy farm cows are kept on the farm.”

 

Galen admitted that some of the criticism can be dismissed as complaints from animal rights groups but “If they are able to make even tougher standards mandatory, either by laws or by the marketplace, and make certain that retailers and processors are demanding certain things, we’re far better being proactive in this regard than reacting to what others want to do.”

 

 

Dairy Beef Quality Assurance Program 

(January 13, 2010) The Dairy Beef Quality Assurance program (DBQA) is a valuable part of a dairy’s bottom line, according to Alan Frederick, Pennsylvania dairy farmer and Secretary of the Pennsylvania Beef Council. Speaking in Wednesday’s broadcast, Frederick said the program made him more aware of when cattle should be marketed if they can’t be rehabilitated and returned to the herd. It also taught him how the placement of injection sites can ruin a piece of meat.

 

“That gristle is basically there forever,” he said, and costs dairymen money whenever a dairy cow goes through the sale barn because “buyers have a pretty good idea that, that cow may have injection sites in places that are going to ruin the meat and therefore they’re not going to pay as much for it.”

 

He encourages all dairy producers to participate in the DBQA and can’t understand why they don’t “jump in with both feet because, even if you don’t care about anything other than just putting money in your pocket, that’s reason enough.” He adds that it’s not hard and “it’s the right thing to do.”

 

He talked about the various videos that show cattle going through sale barns that are total emaciated and “We should not ever wait that long to send a cow to the sale barn. It doesn’t advertise well for us (farmers), it costs us money if a cow is in that bad a shape, she should have been removed from the herd a month before she got clear down to nothing but skin and bones or was so lame that she could hardly walk. They’re not making you any money trying to milk them during that period of time so why not get rid of them when they have some salvage value to them.” “The public seeing that kind of stuff go through the sale barns can’t advertise meat very well.”  

 

Latest World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates Released
(January 12, 2010) The Agriculture Department raised its 2010 milk production estimate in this morning’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report, “reflecting the relatively slow pace of cow liquidation in late 2009.” Output is now expected to hit 188.4 billion pounds, up from the 187.9 billion projected a month ago.

 

Commercial dairy exports for 2009 were adjusted reflecting stronger skim-basis sales, but slightly weaker fat-basis sales. Import forecasts were reduced for 2009. Trade forecasts were unchanged for 2010. Fat and skim-solids ending stocks were forecast higher for 2009. Ending stocks for 2010 were raised on a skim-solids basis but lowered on a fat-basis.

 

Forecasts of butter and cheese prices were lowered as milk production forecasts were raised. However, relatively strong international demand should support prices for nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey, the report said.

 

The 2010 Class III price was lowered from last month as lower expected cheese prices more than offset stronger whey prices. Look for a range of $14.75-15.55 per cwt, down from the $15.15-$15.95 projected a month ago. The 2009 average was $11.36.

 

The Class IV price forecast for 2010 was raised from last month as stronger NDM prices more than offset weaker butter prices. The Department estimates a range of $14.70-$15.60, up a dime on both ends. The Class IV averaged $10.89 in 2009. The all milk price was reduced to $16.20-$17.00 for 2010.

Small MILC Rate Possible?
(January 12, 2010) The MILC payment rate is still projected at zero, but Robert Cropp Professor Emeritus at the University of Wisconsin-Madison , said on Tuesday’s DairyLine there may be a small payment in February. He said there could be a small payment in February if you look at the futures and where feed prices have increased.  

“You look at February where the futures are, they’re anticipating the cheese market not coming back,” he said.” “I think it will come back better and hold that price up.”

Click Here for Roger Cryan, NMPF projection

Cropp is looking for a much better year in prices in 2010. He expects milk production to continue to run below year ago levels with further reduction. He also sees positive signs on the demand side, both in the restaurant business and the export market.    

Cash block cheese continues to sell below the barrels this week. Cropp said with the holidays are over, the demand for blocks are not quite as strong. During the holiday period, a little more production shifted to block cheese and tightened up the barrels.

How long will the reverse last between barrels and blocks? “I imagine you’ll see a correction here in the next two or three weeks, where the blocks will probably come back higher than the barrels” He expects the relationship will then to stabilize.

California February Class 1 Prices Announced
(January 11, 2010) California’s February Class 1 milk price was announced today by the California Department of Food and Agriculture at $16.46 per hundredweight for the north and $16.74 for the south. Both are down $1.76 and $1.75 respectively from January but $5.19  above a year ago. 

Dairy is part of the child obesity solution
Childhood obesity is a, pardon the pun, growing problem but dairy is part of the solution, according to Pennsylvania dairy producer and Dairy Management Incorporated Board member, Paul Meabon. Speaking in Monday’s “DMI Update,” Meabon said the dairy check off continues to partner with the National Dairy Council and the National Football League in what is referred to as the Child Nutrition and Fitness Initiative called “Fuel Up to Play 60,” and focuses on empowering kids to make smart choices about nutrition and physical activity.  

The NFL brings “star power” to the program, Meabon said, and will help deal with the obesity issue in kids today. She said that dairy is “part of the solution. It’s not part of the problem,” and this program “brings it all together, school principals, teachers, and nurses and teaches children how to eat right and exercise.”

 

The program is currently in more than 40,000 schools, with the goal of 60,000 in 2010, she said, and represents 3 million students. She reported that there are several programs for kids to choose from, such as a running club, and the program is a “win-win for dairy farmers and for children.” “They become life-long dairy consumers, as children and as adults.”

 

Dairy Markets Weekly Review

(January 9, 2010) The first week of trading in 2010 saw cash block cheese fall to $1.41 per pound, down 4 cents on the week but 33 3/4-cents above a year ago. The blocks have lost 29 1/4-cents in the last three weeks.

 

The barrels closed the first Friday of 2010 at $1.4325, up a quarter-cent on the week and 36 1/4-cents above a year ago. Barrels got as low as $1.03 on January 7, 2009.  Twenty four cars of block traded hands in the first week of 2010 and 12 of barrel. The NASS-surveyed U.S. block average hit $1.7004, up 0.9 cent. The barrels averaged $1.4878, down 1.2 cents.

 

Butter closed Friday at $1.3450, up 1 3/4-cents on the week and 23 1/2 above a year ago. 28 cars were sold. NASS butter averaged $1.3370, down 1.9 cents.

 

Cash Grade A nonfat dry milk held at $1.37 but Extra Grade closed at $1.3850, down 1 1/2-cents on the week. NASS powder averaged $1.2807, down 5.2 cents, and dry whey averaged 38.57 cents, up 1.3 cents on the week.

Advisory Committee Scheduled To Meet Early This Year
(January 8, 2010) You’ll be pleased and relieved to know that U.S. Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack has appointed a “committee” to address dairy policy issues. Vilsack this week named 17 members to a national Dairy Industry Advisory Committee. 

Dairy Profit Weekly editor, Dave Natzke, reported Friday that the committee is scheduled to start meeting early this year and includes nine dairy producers, four processing industry representatives, and four individuals representing government, academia, retail and consumer interests.

Producer members appointed to the committee are: Erick Coolidge (Pa.), Timothy den Dulk (Mich.), Debora Erb (N.H.), James Goodman (Wis.), James Krahn, (Ore.), Edward Maltby (Mass.), Manuel Souza (Calif.), Ed Welch (Minn.), and James Williams (Ga.).

 

Representatives from the processing industry include: Jay Bryant (Va.), Patricia Stroup (Calif.), Sue Taylor (Colo.), and Robert Wills. (Wis.).

 

Members representing state government, retail, academia and consumers are: Rodney Nilsestuen (Wis.), Robert Schupper (Pa.), Andrew Novakovic (N.Y.), and Paul Bourbeau (Vt.).

 

Members will serve two-year terms and are challenged with looking at milk price volatility and dairy farmer profitability and consolidation and to offer suggestions on ways USDA can best address the needs of a struggling dairy industry.

USDA actually had two options, Natzke said. In addition to the newly formed Advisory Committee, the 2008 Farm Bill called for the creation of federal milk marketing order commission. However, because Congress failed to approve the necessary funding for that commission, USDA said it would not create it.

Meanwhile, Vilsack also announced that USDA and the IRS have agreed to an electronic exchange of information to ensure farmers receiving federal farm payments comply with adjusted gross income provisions established in the of the 2008 Farm Bill. 

The process will allow USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) to review data from tax returns and compare statements to adjusted gross income (AGI) limits established in the Farm Bill.

 

No actual tax data will transmitted, according to USDA, and written consent will be required from each producer for this process. No mention was made of what, if anything will be done to producers who do not provide consent. Vilsack said the plan will enhance USDA program integrity by reducing fraud in federal farm programs.

 

We were talking about many of the same things ten years ago

(January 7, 2010) Many of the issues that the dairy industry struggles with today were with us even 10 years ago, according to National Milk’s Chris Galen. Galen pointed out in Thursday’s program that it’s “ironic that, 10 years ago when the 21st century started, we were talking about many of the same things that I think we’re going to be talking a lot about in 2010.”

 

Federal orders top the list, according to Galen, even though the market order system was revamped and changes implemented on in January 2,000. “There’s been tweaks and adjustments and changes in pooling requirements and various other things over the past 10 years,” he said, “But the net result of all that is a general sense of dissatisfaction with the status quo and the feeling that the glass is half empty.”

 

National Milk will look to “amend, not end some of the features of the Federal order system that were not dealt with when the changes were implemented 10 years ago,” he said.

 

Another issue 10 years ago was the dairy price support program which was extended in the last two farm bills and still exists today but one of the questions National Milk is asking is, “Is this type of safety net really the best investment of government resources? Is it really the best protection of dairy farm income, or are there some other methods, perhaps using an insurance program to protect margins, a more effective form of government support?”

 

He concluded saying that it was kind of funny that “we still have to learn from history. It’s often a good teacher and some of the things we were dealing with back 10 years ago are things that we have to address in the upcoming year.”

 

Government Dictate or Market Dictate?

(January 6, 2010) Government dictate or market dictate; that’s the question the dairy industry struggles with and the International Dairy Foods Association’s Bob Yonkers challenged DairyLine listeners in Tuesday’s broadcast to better prepare themselves for coming ups and downs in milk prices.

 

He began by pointing out that as 2009 came to a close, world dairy markets had rebounded to high price levels not seen prior to 2007's record highs, except for a few months in 2004.  
 

“The dairy markets of the past three years are likely the first of many periods to come where prices zoom to high, even record levels,” Yonkers warned, “Only to fall dramatically to very low levels.” He said that has resulted in calls by some for the government to try and predict and regulate how much farm milk may be produced and marketed, farmer by farmer. 

Others see enormous opportunities for growth, both domestically and into expanding export markets, according to Yonkers. They oppose expanded government intervention, he said, and “are willing to accept the lows in order to benefit from the highs.”

Recognizing that price swings are an expected part of their businesses, producers and processors of other agriculture commodities have long used forward contracts and futures and options to manage risk Yonkers said, “However the dairy industry has been slow to adopt those practices.” 

He said it was fortunate that the 2008 Farm Bill renewed what had been a pilot program between 2000 and 2004 to allow the use of forward contracts for farm milk under federal order regulation.

“The past year is a great example of why such tools should be part of a marketing plan for every dairy farm and processor,” Yonkers said. “Any dairy business whose economic survival was in question during the past year's low milk prices and higher-than-average feed and fuel costs needs to prepare for such a period to occur in the future.”

“The business management tools are now available to the dairy industry,” Yonkers said, “And the number of futures and options contracts traded for dairy continues to grow as many make greater use of these risk management tools. If you have not seriously considered their use before now, make this New Year the time to start,” he concluded.

November Dairy Products Report
(January 5, 2010) The Agriculture Department’s November Dairy Products report puts butter production at 120.1 million pounds, up 7.2 million pounds or 6.9 percent from October but 13.5 million pounds or 9.7 percent below November 2008.  

Nonfat dry milk output amounted to 100.7 million pounds, up 9.2 million or 10.1 percent from October, but 33 million or 24.7 percent below a year ago.


Mozzarella cheese output totaled 281.2 million pounds, up 1.2 million pounds or 0.4 percent from October, and 19.6 million or 7.5 percent above a year ago.

 

Total Italian type cheese, at 362.7 million pounds, was up 2.2 million pounds or 0.6 percent from October, and 22.3 million or 6.5 percent above a year ago.

Cheddar production totaled 248.5 million pounds, down 12.5 million pounds or 4.8 percent from October, and down 9 million pounds or 3.5 percent from a year ago.

American type cheese amounted to 332 million pounds, down 15.1 million pounds or 4.3 percent from October, and down 6.2 million pounds or 1.8 percent from a year ago.

Total cheese output came to 844.2 million pounds, down 17.7 million pounds or 2.1 percent from October, but 15.6 million pounds or 1.9 percent above a year ago. 

Market Analysis with Mary Ledman

(January 5, 2010) The first day of trading in 2010 saw only one change in the cash dairy market in Chicago and that was a quarter-cent gain in barrel cheese. Market analyst Mary Ledman, Principal of Keough Ledman and Associates Inc. in Libertyville, Illinois, said in Tuesday’s DairyLine that she expects the market to trade “sideways” in the first week of the year but sees some possible strength next week as cheese suppliers prepare their bids to sell 31.2 million pounds of cheese to Uncle Sam as part of the emergency aid to dairy farmers passed by Congress last year.


The bids are due January 12 but Ledman said it’s not unusual to see an uptick in the markets before the bids are reviewed by USDA. The cheese is to be delivered from March through December 2010, she said.

 

Dairy headlines this week include another incident of a melamine contamination in China of dairy products. Ledman said it’s unclear at this point as to what effect that will have on dairy markets. The last incident caused some consumers in China to stop using dairy products while others looked to imports, rather than domestically produced products.

 

She expects that to happen this time as well but it remains to be seen what affect that might have. Nonfat dry milk powder markets are already tight, she said, so we may see some continued strength in the market due to this incident but it’s too early to know for sure.

 

World block Cheddar cheese is selling around $2.00 per pound right now. I ask Ledman how that squares with the U.S. price at $1.45 and she pointed out that the Cheddar sold at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange can include up to 39 per cent moisture. The global market trades in 35 percent moisture so we’re not comparing apples to apples when we look at CME prices versus world market levels.
  

Doesn't Matter If You Believe In Humane-Induced Climate Change Or Not

(January 4, 2010) Dairy Management Incorporated vice president of Industry Relations, David Pelzer, was back in Monday’s “DMI Update” to continue his discussion from last week on the partnership between USDA and the Innovation Center for U.S. dairy to reduce dairy’s greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent in the next decade.

 

Pelzer said it doesn’t matter if you believe in human-induced climate change or not. The issue is “getting dairy producers and the dairy industry ahead of the game,” so if regulations are instigated in the future regarding this issue, dairy producers will be in front of it.

 

This goal is voluntary, he said, and was set by dairy farmers and others in the industry “in a very economically viable way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and have it be cost effective to dairy farmers and the rest of the dairy industry.”

 

Consumers today care more about health and the environmental impact of the products they buy, according to Pelzer, “so they will wonder about the carbon footprint of a gallon of soda versus a gallon of milk and we’re going to be able to conclusively show that dairy products, in this case, fluid milk, is not only is healthier than soda and more nutritious but also has less of a carbon footprint and we’ll have the data to prove that.”

 

The issue needs to be addressed with facts and not emotion or fiction and Pelzer points out that, following the life cycle assessment analysis in 2009 on 50 dairy processing plants and over 500 dairy farms, “we will be able to show in a peer reviewed scientific journal, data that shows that the carbon footprint for the dairy industry is something like 2 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions, a far cry from the claims by some activist groups of 18-25 percent. “It’s much, much lower than that and we’re going to have the data to prove that,” he concluded.  

A Number of Factors Will Determine Dairy's Direction in 2010

(January 1, 2010) Dairy Profit Weekly editor, Dave Natzke, echoed Galen’s comments on Friday by decrying 2009, and began by pointing out that in the many years that he and I have covered the dairy industry, some stand out more than others but “2009 will undoubtedly be one of those used as a measuring stick, both in terms of economic and psychological impacts.”  

 

He reported that the 2009 U.S. average milk price will be down about 33 percent from 2008 and the total money farmers received for the sale of milk will fall nearly $11 billion. If you spread that out over 9 million cows, Natzke reported that the decline equates to about $1,200 for every cow in the U.S. MILC payments and emergency government dairy aid will only offset about one-tenth of that, he said.

 

The dairy economy of 2009 also had an impact on the geography of U.S. milk production. You and I are both Wisconsin boys, and for many years we've been hearing about declining milk production in the Midwest, and the tremendous growth of in the West. 2009 is the year that changed, with many western states posting year-to-year declines, and production in many Midwest states on the rise. Going forward, we'll see how permanent that change is.  

 

A number of factors will determine dairy’s direction in 2010, according to Natzke. Feed prices, which had been showing signs of moderating, appear to be on the rise again, he said, and credit availability will be a factor, especially for dairy farmers who used up a lot of equity trying to survive in 2009.

2009 dairy cull cow liquidation was up nearly a quarter-million head from 2008, and many sources predict the number of U.S. dairy cows could fall below 9 million head for the first time since 2004.

 

The wild cards will be what influence any improvement in milk prices has herd expansions, Natzke said, as well as the availability of a large number of dairy heifers. The good news is that international and domestic demand seems to be recovering, boosting dairy sales, he concluded.