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Federal Order & California Milk Prices


Daily Cash Prices
    Futures Prices

05/09/08

PRICE

TRADES

BIDS

OFFERS

BUTTER +0.75
$1.4700
2 5 0
BLOCK CHEESE +1.75
$1.9975
0 2 0
BARREL CHEESE +3.00
$1.9800
0 1 0
GRADE A NFDM Unchanged
$1.4200
0 0 0
EXTRA GRADE NFDM  Unchanged
$1.4200
0 0 0
NASS Dairy Products Price Highlights   5/09/2008
Block:   +5 cents to $1.8955/lb. Barrel: +6.1 cents to $1.8550/lb.
Butter: +0.2 cent to $1.3683/lb. NFDM: +1.4 cents to $1.2759/lb.
Whey:  +0.5 cent to 26.63 cents/lb.
C.C.C. Purchase Report    5/05/08-5/09/08
Product This Week Cume Last Year
Butter None None None
Cheese None None None
NFDM None None None
Land O'Lakes Purina Feed launches new Ampli-Calf" Technology
         
*
Monday, May 12, 2008
Milk Consumption Among School Kids: We Can Do Better
Milk Producers Council Weekly Update 
MI: Revised plans for 5000-head dairy await state review
PA: Innovative Dairy Attracts International Visitors
TX: Financial Lenders Gain Understanding of Dairy Industry
WI: Students learn about life on dairy farm
Audio: Colostrum Management - Pfizer Vet Visit
Canada: Robotic dairy barn inches closer for Kemptville Campus
UK: Farmers crack open bubbly as they discover a cash cow in dairying
UK needs dairy cattle genetics suited to country’s requirements in...
New Zealand: Record prices for dairy cows
"Kiss A Cow"
Friday, May 9, 2008
DFA Uncovers Unauthorized $1 million payment in 2001
California Class 1 Prices up $1.45
Dairy Markets Weekly Review
World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates
Push For Green Is Impacting Dairy Industry
NMPF Statement on Completion of Farm Bill Conference Package
Goodlatte Supports Farm Bill Agreement
Dairy Roadmap Will Improve Performance
Thursday, May 8, 2008
Animal Rights Activists Very Motivated By "Gotcha" Videos
Statement by USDA Secretary Ed Schafer on HSUS Animal Cruelty Video
April 2008 Dairy Outlook - Ken Bailey
NE: Try Another Option for Your Alfalfa This Year
TX: A dairy pretty cow
VT Dairy Challenge team wins Gold award
WA: County dairy farmers consider state incentives to build methane...
Dairy News From Down Under Dairy Week 
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Processors Perspective on Class I Milk Pricing Forumulas
Bipartisan effort would prevent energy market manipulation
CT: Dairies Struggle To Keep Herds Competitive
MN: Hansons up to the challenge of being dairy producers
N.M.: Dairy farmers dedicated to land
NY: Dairy Farmers in Oneida County forced to cut costs
Ohio poultry and dairy industries sponsor new cooking contest
WA: Yakamas vote to ban new dairy feedlots
TB Strain May Be Linked To Unpasteurized Dairy, Study Suggests

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April Federal Order Class III Milk Price Drops $1.24
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Slaughter Report
March Cold Storage Figures Released
Dairy Situation and Outlook, Bob Cropp
March Milk Production up 2.4 Percent
May Federal Order Class I Base Milk Price Down $1.99
Dairy Outlook Summary


Milk Consumption Among School Kids: We Can Do Better
(May 12, 2008) Milk consumption continues to climb among school kids but “We can do better,” according to Liz Anderson, an Onalaska, Washington dairy producer and DMI Board member. Speaking to DairyLine’s Bill Baker in Monday’s “DMI Update,” Anderson reminded us of the importance of school milk because once a milk drinker is lost in school they may be lost for a long time because “there are so many (beverage) alternatives to milk.”

 

She said the goal of the dairy check off is to offer school kids the milk they like and that’s where the “New Look of School Milk” campaign comes in, in getting processors to work with the schools to offer single-serve plastic containers in schools “So kids get a quality product that’s good and cold, and hip, and fun, with new graphics on it as well as in new flavors.”

 

Anderson offered chocolate milk as a prime example, a chocolate milk that meets all the specifications of lower calories with good flavor. She warned that “You can lower the calories but you don’t always have the good flavor left so the check off is working with processors to do that.”

 

Some 9200 schools across the country representing over 5 million kids are now offering milk in the new self-serve, plastic and, while that may not sound like that many when you consider how many schools there are in the U.S., when you stop to consider that there weren’t any offering them in 2000, “It’s a good start.”

 

Single serves are also offered in fast food chains like McDonalds, Subway, Sonic, Wendy’s, and others, she said, so kids get the same quality product in restaurants as they get in school and the check off is working to keep that going.

 

Anderson also pointed out that they don’t have enough people to reach every school with the program so they are concentrating on the top 15 school districts around the country where “They can make a big difference because a lot of milk goes through those schools every day when they’re serving lunch and breakfast.”

 

The University of Wisconsin's Dr. Brain Gould has our weekly dairy market analysis on tomorrow's DairyLine broadcast and Dr. Alan Britten has his weekly "Udder Health Update" in our second half.

DFA Uncovers Unauthorized $1 million payment in 2001

Posted May 9, 2008 - By Dave Natzke, Editor, Dairy Profit Weekly  

Dairy Farmers of America (DFA) members have been informed of an unauthorized payment of $1 million – arranged by former DFA CEO Gary Hanman to former DFA chair Herman Brubaker. The payment, made in 2001 through a DFA affiliate, had not been approved by the DFA board. The affiliate was not identified.

In a teleconference with dairy media on May 9, current DFA president and CEO Rick Smith said all DFA members were informed of the discovery via a May 8 letter from Smith and DFA board chair Tom Camerlo. Smith said the current board and management team became aware of the payment in the past six to eight weeks.

Smith said the $1 million, plus interest totaling “hundreds of thousands of dollars,” has been paid back by Hanman and Brubaker. He said it was too early to determine if DFA would pursue criminal charges against Hanman and Brubaker, but that the co-op would reserve that right.

The DFA board established a special committee to investigate all details related to the payment, as well as any other potential unauthorized payments or activities made by Hanman, Brubaker or others. A committee report is expected in the next few months.

Smith said the payment discovery was made during “due diligence” on a different matter. He said his role at DFA in the past two years has included creating “a culture of transparency,” which includes looking into past transactions. “We’re not on a witch hunt, but we’re not going to have a whitewash,” he said.

Brubaker stepped down as DFA chair in 2003; Hanman retired as CEO at the end of 2005, but in a pre-existing employment agreement was technically retained as a consultant. At the time of the payment discovery, Smith said Hanman was no longer providing consulting services, and the employment agreement has been terminated.

Smith said the payment should not reflect on DFA’s internal controls, “because it happened outside of DFA,” but that the special committee will also look into internal controls and systems to make sure they are adequate and consistent.

The letter assured members that significant operational changes designed to ensure the long-term strength and success of the cooperative had been implemented.


California Class 1 Prices up $1.45
(May 9, 2008) California’s June Class 1 milk price is $20.23 per hundredweight for the North and $20.50 for the south. Both are up $1.45 from May and 22 cents above June 2007. The Federal order Class I base price is announced May 23.

Dairy Markets Weekly Review
(May 9, 2008) The cash butter market saw 17 consecutive sessions of gain and closed Friday May 9, at $1.47 per pound, up 3 cents on the week but 2 cents below a year ago. Two cars traded hands. The lagging NASS-surveyed butter price averaged $1.3683, up 0.2 cent. NASS nonfat dry milk averaged $1.2759, up 1.4 cents, and dry whey averaged 26.63 cents, up a half cent.
 
Block cheese almost hit $2.00 again, closing Friday at $1.9975, up 5 3/4-cents on the week and 30 1/4 above a year ago. Barrel closed at $1.98, up a nickel on the week and 32 3/4-cents above a year ago. Eight cars of block traded hands and two of barrel. The NASS U.S. average block
price hit $1.8955, up a nickel. Barrel averaged $1.8550, up 6.1 cents.
 
Cash Grade A and Extra Grade nonfat dry milk closed at $1.42 perpound each, both up 2 cents on the week.


World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates
(May 9, 2008) The Agriculture Department, in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report issued this morning lowered its 2008 estimate of milk production from 190 billion pounds forecast a month ago, to 189.8 billion. It says 2009 milk output will increase “fractionally,” to 190.4 billion, reflecting lower cow numbers and minimal gains in output per cow. It adds that, although producers continue to add cows in 2008, poor returns are expected to end the expansionary phase of dairy cow inventories.

 

Commercial exports are forecast to remain relatively robust by historical standards, the report said, but will likely be lower in 2009 as production in competing supplier countries recovers and tighter U.S. production increases competition between domestic and export uses.

 

Domestic disappearance of fat and skim solids is expected to increase modestly, tightening commercial stocks and supporting higher butter, nonfat dry milk, and whey prices in 2009.

 

Cheese prices were forecast slightly lower as favorable cheese prices early in the year may encourage increased supplies of milk to flow into cheese vats. With a firmer whey price, the Class III milk price is forecast to rise from 2008, but will average below its 2007 record. Likewise, strong butter and NDM prices are expected to result in a stronger Class IV price.

 

The 2008 Class III price is now expected to range $17-$17.50 per hundredweight, up from $16.55-$17.05 projected last month. It projects the 2009 average at $16.80-$17.80. The 2007 average was $18.04. Look for a 2008 Class IV price average of $15.45-$16.05, up a dime from last month’s estimate, and the 2009 projection is pegged at $16.50-$17.60 per hundredweight.

 


Push For Green Is Impacting Dairy Industry
(May 9, 2008) Environmental sustainability, global warming and “carbon footprints” are terms that are becoming part of today’s vocabulary as consumers are told they need to look at how everything they use and eat is impacting the environment. Dairy Profit Weekly editor, Dave Natzke, talked about how this push for “green” is impacting the dairy industry in Friday’s broadcast.

 

He pointed out that, with presidential candidates promising “green” policies and food companies trying to position themselves as marketers of environmentally friendly products, at lot of attention is being directed toward global warming and carbon footprints, and dairy is no different. 

 

Cornell University has submitted results of a research project on dairy’s sustainability to the National Academy of Sciences for publication, possibly in early June. The University of Arkansas, at the request of Wal-Mart and with funding from Dairy Management Incorporated (DMI), will begin a pilot program to conduct carbon footprint research on 17 products, including milk, all the way from the farm to the store shelf.

 

And, along with DMI, National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) and the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA) have launched an initiative to encourage dairy industry innovations to improve environmental performance and meet consumer demand. The three organizations will identify best practices and seek opportunities for product, processing and marketing innovations of milk and milk products, with a focus on reducing energy consumption and boosting on-farm income in emerging “green” energy markets.

 

As part of the initiative, the three dairy organizations have begun efforts to analyze the carbon footprint of milk, from production on the farm, through processing and retail distribution, to consumption, according to Natzke.

 

And, at the international level, the International Dairy Federation will hold a summit on dairy farming and climate change in late June in Edinburgh, Scotland. Dairy Profit Weekly’s assistant editor, Susan Harlow, will be attending that meeting, which will look at how the dairy industry can reduce carbon emissions and what impacts climate change has on dairy producers and processors.


Animal Rights Activists Very Motivated By "Gotcha" Videos
(May 8, 2008) The livestock industry was hit by yet another Humane Society undercover video this week highlighting mistreatment of cattle, this time at auctions. National Milk’s, Chris Galen, said in his Thursday DairyLine report that “Again there’s going to be a spotlight shined on the treatment of livestock from farm to fork.” 

 

He said that it was unfortunate that this kind of thing happens but animal rights activists are “very motivated, very ingenious and devious in many cases, and it’s likely that we’re going to continue to see these types of undercover gotcha videos focused on various aspects of the food chain.”

 

In response, National Milk is putting together some new dairy producer education materials that will hopefully be available later this spring to anyone on the farm or anyone working with dairy producers containing basic, easy-to-use information to make informed decisions when it comes to culling and transporting cattle.

 

The Federation has also worked from a policy standpoint by joining with the American Meat Institute and the National Meat Association to support closing what Galen called “the loophole” that allows animals that go down at the meat packing plant to be re-inspected and approved for slaughter by a federal veterinarian. A citizen petition to USDA will seek this change, according to Galen.

 

“Our message here has been that this is a system wide challenge,” Galen said,

“And the good news is that we have been working well with trade organizations that represent all different aspects of the livestock production system, other farm groups, transportation organizations, groups representing livestock markets, and meatpacking organizations.” “We all recognize that we have a role to play in assuring consumers that they have a safe food supply but we all have to make certain that we’re working together on this very dicey and delicate issue.”


Processors Perspective on Class I Milk Pricing Forumulas
(May 7, 2008) Ruth Saunders voiced the “Processors Perspective” in Wednesday’s DairyLine broadcast, concerning changes the Agriculture Department made to Class I milk pricing formulas that, she said, “will have mixed impacts across the country.”

 

New increased Class I differentials went into effect May 1st in 14 states that were sought by nine coops from Texas, New Mexico and the southeast about a year ago, Saunders reported. Prior to that, USDA’s Class I location differentials had been fixed with only minor adjustments since 1985. 

 

Differentials add a set price increase to the Class I mover or base price which is announced by USDA, that Saunders charged “Sends a signal that Class I milk should cost more the further south the milk is from the Upper Midwest , where differentials are the lowest in the country.”

 

The new Class I differentials were disproportionately increased, according to Saunders, “creating new incentives for moving milk and uncompetitive situations for plants, depending on their location.”  

 

Saunders reported, for example, that differentials were raised in Louisiana and Tennessee between 10 and 60 cents per hundredweight, depending on the county. In Alabama and Virginia the increase ranged from 30 to 85 cents. In South Carolina and Florida , the differentials jump up by as much as $1.00 to $1.70.  The highest Class I differential is now up to $6.00, she said. No changes were made in the upper Midwest where Class I differentials remain at $1.70.

 

“It makes you wonder what’s next” Saunders said. USDA is considering a proposal that would raise Class I differentials nationwide, she said. “The impact, once again, will depend on where your farm or plant happens to be located.” 

 

In this yet to be decided proposal, USDA’s published analysis indicates that Class I utilization would decline and Class III and IV prices would soften, Saunders warned. The proposal is projected to reduce Class I fluid milk sales, she said, “Under a pricing system that is designed to ensure an adequate supply of milk for Class I needs.” 

 

“It is important for USDA to remember that ours is a national market for milk,” Saunders concluded, “Class I differentials cannot be selectively altered without disrupting the existing relationships in the marketplace, and without penalizing certain regions of the country.” 


Market Analysis
(May 6, 2008) Monday’s half-cent advance in cash butter marked the 13th consecutive trading session of gain. Barrel cheese jumped 2 cents, hitting $1.95, while block was unchanged, holding at $1.94. And, cash Grade A and Extra Grade nonfat dry milk jumped 2 cents, to $1.42 per pound.

 

Market analyst Mary Ledman, Principal of Keogh Ledman and Associates in Libertyville , Illinois , cautioned us in Tuesday’s DairyLine however that the barrel price inched above the block price and “That always gives us a precarious situation as to whether one will move up or the other move down.”

 

She pointed to Friday’s trading which saw the block price drop 2 cents, to $1.94, and Monday’s gain in the barrel price came on an offer which, she said, indicates there may be more downward pressure ahead.

 

“We have a $1.90-$1.95 market right now which is unprecedented,” Ledman said, “As we enter the peak flush period in the Midwest .” The key factor to watch, she said, is the export market, which is “clearly influencing our dairy products market and it’s just really uncertain how long they will remain this strong.”

 

When asked about concern over the overall economy in the U.S. and what that may mean for domestic dairy product disappearance, Ledman replied, “So far so good.” Milk is used as a “loss leader,” she explained. She reported seeing promotional specials of four gallons of conventional milk for $10.00 and two for $10.00 for organic milk and said “We did not see those types of promotional activity in 2006 when milk prices were low.”

 

“Dairy products remain a good value,” Ledman said, and she is optimistic that the recession will have less impact on domestic demand than other food products.


March Dairy Products Report
(May 5, 2008, 2008) The Agriculture Department’s March Dairy Products report issued today puts butter production at 154.3 million pounds, up 7.5 million pounds or 5.2 percent from February and 15.9 million pounds or 11.5 percent above March 2007. 

Mozzarella cheese output totaled 284.5 million pounds, up 19.2 pounds or 7.2 percent from February, but 2.7 million pounds or 0.9 percent below a year ago. Total Italian type cheese, at 358 million pounds, was up 23 million pounds or 6.9 percent from February, but 4.2 million pounds or 1.2 percent below a year ago.

Cheddar production totaled 266.4 million pounds, up 15.1 million pounds or 6 percent from February, but 4.6 million pounds or 1.7 percent below a year ago. Total American type cheese amounted to 340.2 million pounds, up 20.9 million pounds or 6.5 percent from February, and 0.8 million pounds or 0.3 percent above a year ago.

Total cheese output came to 834.3 million pounds, up 49.7 million pounds or 6.3 percent from February, but 6.2 million pounds or 0.7 percent below a year ago. 

March nonfat dry milk output amounted to 134.2 million pounds, up a 15.9 pounds or 13.4 percent from February, and 21.3 million pounds or 18.9 percent above a year ago.  
Text | PDF


DMI Update
(May 5, 2008) U.S. cheese exports hit a record high in 2007, topping 99,000 tons in, up 40 percent from 2006. Much of that success can be attributed to the U.S. Dairy Export Council’s (USDEC) work in Japan, where U.S. suppliers proved that Japanese consumers would buy more U.S. cheese varieties if offered to them.

 

Jeff McNeill, of the U.S. Dairy Export Council office, in Japan , reported in Monday’s “DMI Update,” that, at the beginning of 2007, U.S. suppliers had a foothold in Japan ’s retail market with cream cheese. However, USDEC saw great potential for other U.S. products and began to hammer home the message that the U.S. dairy industry is more than just cream cheese.

 

USDEC’s Japan office created a marketing plan that emphasized high-value U.S. artisan cheeses. Staff members worked to increase consumer awareness and demand for cheese, expand varieties available to Japanese consumers and elevate the image of U.S. specialty cheese versus European cheeses.

 

To increase awareness of U.S. cheese, USDEC helped Japanese importers introduce approximately 20 U.S. specialty cheeses by conducting one-on-one consultations with retailers and hotels. USDEC also sponsored seminars in Tokyo and Osaka and cheese and wine tastings for culinary professionals.

 

USDEC’s marketing work boosted U.S. cheese shipments to Japan by 30 percent last year with a volume gain of 2,300 tons. This was second only to Mexico , the largest export customer of U.S. cheese.

 

Through the support of U.S. dairy producers, USDEC’s marketing efforts will continue to increase export demand for and drive sales of U.S. dairy products and ingredients in Japan and around the world.  


Dairy Markets Weekly Review
(May 2, 2008) This week was the sixth consecutive gain for cash cheese prices. Blocks climbed to $1.96 but inched back 2 cents on Friday to close at $1.94 per pound, up 1 1/2-cents on the week and 23 3/4-cents above that week a year ago when the blocks jumped 15 1/4-cents.

 

Barrel closed Friday at $1.93, up a nickel on the week and 29 1/2-cents above a year ago. Six cars of block traded hands on the week and none of barrel. The NASS U.S. average block price hit $1.8460, up 1.5 cents. Barrel averaged $1.7938, up 1.9 cents.

 

Butter closed at $1.44, up 2 3/4-cents on the week but 1 1/2-cents below a year ago. Only three cars traded hands. NASS butter averaged $1.3666, up 1.8 cents.

 

Cash Grade A and Extra Grade nonfat dry milk closed at $1.40 per pound, up a nickel on the week. 

 

NASS-surveyed nonfat dry milk averaged $1.2623, up 1.5 cents. Dry whey averaged 26.15 cents, up 0.3 cent.


April Federal Order Class III Milk Price Drops $1.24
(May 2, 2008) The April Federal order Class III milk price was announced this morning by USDA at $16.76 per hundredweight, down $1.24 from March, 67 cents above April 2007, and 3 cents below California's comparable 4b price.
It puts the 2008 average at $17.78, up from $14.73 a year ago and $11.91 in 2006. Thursday’s Class III futures portend a rebound to $18.05 in May, $18.65 in June, $19.22 in July, $19.34 in August, and a peak of $19.48 in September. 

 

The April Class IV price is $14.56, up 39 cents from March but $1.56 below April 2007.

 

The NASS-surveyed cheese price averaged $1.8164, down 14.1 cents from March. Butter averaged $1.3492, up 9.5 cents. Nonfat dry milk averaged $1.2506, down fractionally, and dry whey averaged 25.6 cents, up 1.3 cents.


CLASS & COMPONENT PRICES:

COMMODITY            

April 2008 March 2008 Feb. 2008

Class II Milk Price

$15.29 cwt. $15.63 cwt. $18.46 cwt.

Class II Butterfat Price

$1.4818 lb. $1.3674 lb. $1.3080 lb.

Class III Milk Price

$16.76 cwt. $18.00 cwt. $17.03 cwt.

Class III Skim Price

$12.02 cwt. $13.72 cwt. $12.93 cwt.

Class IV Milk Price

$14.56 cwt. $14.17 cwt. $14.67 cwt.

Class IV Skim Milk Price

$9.74 cwt. $9.75 cwt. $10.48 cwt.

Butterfat Price

$1.4748 lb. $1.3604 lb. $1.3010 lb.

Nonfat Solids Price

$1.0827 lb. $1.0833 lb. $1.1643 lb.

Protein Price

$3.7579 lb. $4.3331 lb. $4.0180 lb.

Other Solids Price

$0.0622 lb. $0.0493 lb. $0.0803 lb.

Somatic Cell Adjustment Rate

$0.00091 per 1,000 cells $0.00098 per 1,000 cells $0.00092 per 1,000 cells

NASS SURVEYED: 

April 2008 March 2008 Feb. 2008

Butter: 

$1.3492 lb. $1.2539 lb. $1.2044 lb.

NFDM:

$1.2506 lb. $1.2512 lb. $1.3331 lb.

Cheese:  

$1.8164 lb. $1.9575 lb. $1.8403 lb.

Dry Whey:

$0.2560 lb. $0.2435 lb. $0.2736 lb.


Dairy Profit Weekly Report
(Friday, May 2, 2008) USDA announced April’s milk-feed price ratio for April was just 1.9, the lowest level on record. The milk-feed ratio is the pounds of 16% mixed dairy feed equal in value to 1 lb. of whole milk, and is an indicator of milk income over fed costs. A ratio of 3.0 or higher is considered positive for milk production. April’s ratio is the fifth straight month below that threshold, and the seventh consecutive monthly decline.

April’s preliminary U.S. average milk price was $18.00/cwt., down just a dime (10¢/cwt). from March, but escalating feed prices are taking their toll, with soybeans, corn and hay prices all substantially higher.

USDA said other milk production costs are going up as well. Farm fuels are up a whopping 43% compared to a year ago, and as we head into planting season, fertilizer costs are up 65%.

Despite the higher costs, demand for dairy replacement animals appears strong. In it's quarterly Replacement Cow Price report, USDA said the national average price fell just $20 per head since January, and now stands at $1,940 per head, about $210 more than one year ago. It was a mixed bag in major dairy states, with average prices up $100/head in Colorado, Minnesota and New York, but down $200/head in California and down $100 in Washington and Pennsylvania.

And finally Lee, with the U.S. border reopened to Canadian dairy heifers, we're seeing a steady migration of heifers into the United States. USDA’s Ag Marketing Service said about 1,050 heifers were imported for the week ending April 19, bringing the year-to-date total to 21,315.

Lower milk prices and higher feed prices drove the monthly milk-feed ratio to the lowest level on record, according to USDA’s monthly Ag Prices report. At 1.90, the April 2008 index is down from a revised 2.07 for March, and compares to 2.51 in April 2007.

Estimated by USDA, the milk-feed ratio is the pounds of 16% mixed dairy feed equal in value to 1 lb. of whole milk, and is an indicator of milk income over fed costs. A ratio of 3.0 or higher is considered positive for milk production. April’s ratio is the fifth straight month below that threshold, and the seventh consecutive monthly decline.

April’s preliminary U.S. average milk price was $18.00/cwt., down 10¢/cwt. from March and the lowest average since May 2007. It compares to a U.S. average milk price of just $16.60/cwt. in April  2007.

U.S. average soybean prices increased 30¢/bushel in April; corn prices were up 43¢/bushel; and hay prices increased $14/ton.

Costs of other major farm production inputs were up, as well. Overall, costs on major inputs were up 2.7% in April 2008 compared to a month earlier, and were about 17% higher than April 2007 
• Feed: The April index increased 2.2% from March and 27% from last April. Higher prices for feed grains, hay and forages partially offset slightly lower prices for supplements and complete feeds. 
• Fertilizer: The April index was up 2.1% from March and 65% more than April a year ago.
• Chemicals: The April index was unchanged from March, but up 3.8% from last April.
• Fuels: The April index was up 4.5% from a month earlier and 43% more than April 2007. The diesel fuel price was up 4.8%, the gasoline price was up 5.6%, and the LP gas price was up 1.7% for the month.
• Machinery: The April index was up just 0.5% from March, but 6.9% more than April 2007.
• Other: The April index of prices paid for commodities and services, interest, taxes and farm wages was up 1.7% from March 2008 and up 13% from April 2007.

Replacement cow prices held fairly steady through the first four months of 2008. According to USDA’s quarterly summary, April U.S. average dairy replacements declined just $20/head from January 2008, to average $1,940/head (see Table 2). 

It was a mixed bag in major dairy states, with average prices up $100/head in Colorado, Minnesota and New York, but down $200/head in California and down $100 in Washington and Pennsylvania. Nationally, average dairy replacement prices remain $210/head higher compared to April 2007.

A couple of USDA reports are indicators of replacement demand. According to USDA’s monthly Milk Production report, U.S. cow numbers grew by about 42,000 during the first quarter (January-March) of 2008. Also, USDA said dairy replacement heifers imported from Canada totaled 1,047 for the week ending April 19, bringing the year-to-date total to 21,315.

California Class 4 Prices Announced
(May 1, 2008)
California's 4b cheese milk price was announced this morning by the California Department of Food and Agriculture at $16.79 per hundredweight, down 15 cents from March but $1.59 above a year ago. The 4a butter-powder price is $14.31, down a nickel from March and 22 cents below a year ago. Federal order prices are announced tomorrow morning by the USDA.


How Is Conventional Animal Agriculture Impacting Our World?
(May 1, 2008) Conventional farm animal practices received some criticism in a study on the impacts to humans, animals, and the environment of intensive food animal production. The study began in 2006 by the Pew Commission on Industrial Farm Animal Production but the group’s recommendations were “fairly tame compared to what they might have been,” according to National Milk’s Chris Galen.

 

Speaking in Thursday’s DairyLine, Galen called it a “fairly high level group of some prominent people,” including the former governor of Kansas, former Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman and others, many who are critics of conventional food production so there was apprehension about the findings.

 

The group made some recommendations which NMPF considers “rather harsh and off base,” he said, but they supported the need for a national animal identification system to facilitate food traceability, something the Federation supports, and they recommended more funding for animal research, something that NMPF would also agree with.

 

They also suggest that consumers need to be more aware of where and how food is produced and Galen believes that would help dairy farmers because, “If you look at a lot of the issues we’re dealing with today, it’s consumer misperception about what goes into food, what’s in or not in dairy, and “If we could educate consumers that our farms are not factories, are not cow prisons, in fact produce a safe product on a daily basis that actually would help us all.”

 

While the study was not backed by an animal rights or vegetarian agenda per se, several of the members have that orientation, according to Galen, and a lot of the people in the audience of the meeting where the findings were presented, were animal rights supporters who have been waiting for this “with baited breath.”

 

A lot of people in the livestock industry were apprehensive about this, Galen said, and he predicted there’ll be some criticism of the findings by other sectors of agriculture but, from NMPF’s standpoint, Galen said “There are a few things that are off base. There are a few things that are on target and, most importantly now, we have to find common cause for things that we agree need to be changed or can be changed in the future.”

Related Links:
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN2930966720080429?sp=true

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/5738971.html

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080429/NEWS/80429006/-1/SPORTS09 


Milk Feed Price Ratio Continues Decline
(April 30, 2008) The April Milk-Feed Price Ratio is 1.90, down from March's revised estimate of 2.07, according to USDA’s “Ag Prices” report issued this afternoon. That's seven consecutive months the ratio has decreased.  That compares to 2.51 in April of 2007. 
 
The All Milk Price was estimated at $18.00 per hundredweight, down a dime from last month's estimate, and compares to $16.60 a year ago. Corn averaged $5.13 per bushel, up 43 cents from March, and $1.74 above April 2007. The soybean price, at $11.80 per bushel, was up 30 cents from March, and $4.92 above a year ago. Text | PDF


Block Cheese is Tight, Barrel is Plentiful
(April 30, 2008) Downes-O’Neill dairy broker, Dave Kurzawski, also pointed to exports as a big player in the cheese market in Wednesday’s DairyLine. I likened the cheese price to a fighter in the ring that keeps getting back up after being knocked down. He said the cash market isn’t giving up much ground, at least the block market isn’t, and indications are that block cheese is very tight right now and that’s been the case all year, with short lived periods of product being available.

 

Barrel cheese appears plentiful, according to Kurzawski, and the difference is exports. “We don’t export barrel cheese,” he said, “But either way futures are still keeping a pretty good premium to the spot price.”

 

When asked what this means for a dairy producer’s hedge management strategy, Kurzawski said “It means you have a premium in a market that had been carrying a pretty good discount for the past year.” He recommends that producers take advantage of that and lock up at least a floor price at a profitable level because “They’re giving you that opportunity right now.”

 

Kurzawski went on to preview the Downes-O’Neill/E-Dairy annual Dairy Outlook Conference, June 18 and 19 in Chicago . Topics to be covered include world currencies, weather and climate, grains, edible oils, Latin America ’s agricultural economy, as well as several technical aspects of the futures markets. He said it’s going to be a great opportunity for people to learn a lot in a short period of time. For complete information and to register, log on to www.dairy.nu. And click on the Outlook 2008 icon.


Market Analysis with Robert Cropp
(April 29, 2008) The cheese price roller coaster started the last week of April on an up note, with blocks jumping a penny and a half, to $1.94 per pound. Barrel was unchanged at $1.88, while butter moved a half-cent higher.

 

University of Wisconsin Emeritus Professor, Dr. Robert Cropp, reported in Tuesday’s DairyLine that the cream supply is “very ample,” production is up, and stocks are still ample but demand has been pretty strong and some anticipate that butter could get tighter this summer as more cream goes into ice cream, something that has already started. Retail sales have been good as well, he said.

 

“The cheese market continues to surprise us,” Cropp said, and “It’s a pretty strong market when you get over $1.90. Cheese production continues to run below a year ago by 2-2 1/2 percent, but he expects that to change as there is plant capacity available, and this is particularly Cheddar cheese which is traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

 

The high prices result in reluctance to carry a lot of extra inventory, according to Cropp, so “it keeps it pretty tight.” Sales have been “half way decent,” he said, but he expects that to weaken as we move into May.

 

He adds that exports have been strong, up about 66 percent from a year ago for the first two months of 2008, and “That adds to the tightness a little,” and butter exports have been good, running about 14 percent of U.S. production.

 

Cash Grade A and Extra Grade nonfat dry milk was bid 2 1/2-cents higher Monday, to $1.3750 per pound. Cropp reported that we have a lot of powder in storage, although not as much as a few years ago, and we’ve produced quite a bit, with a lot of the increase in Western milk production going into powder but he believes the export market will pick up.

 

New Zealand reports its 2007 production was down about 4 percent, Cropp said, and that should strengthen domestic prices, not to $2.00 but likely $1.40 and possibly $1.50 by the second half of 2008.

 

The Agriculture Department’s annual Dairy Product and Milk Disposition summaries issued Friday shows “favorable” sales distribution in 2007, according to Cropp. American cheese output is not as strong as other types, he said, but “We’ve kept that American cheese supply tighter so it was a pretty good year,” but he warned that “It’s crucial that we have as strong a distribution this year,” said that exports will play a key role, particularly on nonfat dry milk and dry whey.

 

“With high retail prices and the economy there’s a concern if we’ll maintain the same growth in 2008 that we had in 2007,” he concluded.


DMI Update
(April 28. 2008) The export market is a shining star in the dairy industry these days and Joe O’Donnell, Executive Director of the California Dairy Research Foundation, said in Monday’s “DMI Update” that America has always been the greatest producer of agricultural products in the world and that includes dairy.

 

He adds that “the opportunities around the world are coming to our shores.” He reported that these are people with improving economies and “the first thing they want is eat better and the way they can meet that need, the most easily and most efficiently is to take in dairy products.”

 

The U.S. can ship dairy products anywhere in the world, O’Donnell said, and “What these dairy products are doing for these people is to add to their regular diet, and raise the nutritional status of the entire population.” “They have a healthier population, a better fed population, and dairy products have the ability to do that and we are in a position to market those products to those people and raise the standards of the world.”

 

The future holds more of the same, according to O’Donnell, and the dairy check off is helping in that effort, by enabling us to “better understand the advantages that we have with our products and how we can use our ingredients to formulate foods that are appreciated by other cultures.” Understanding what those consumers want, not only in terms of nutrition but in terms of palatability, is very important to maintaining and expanding those markets, he concluded.


Farm Bill Update
(April 25, 2008) The question repeated itself this week; will we see a new farm bill by week’s end. You’ll recall that a deadlock in negotiations forced another extension of the 2002 Farm Bill last week, and while the House-Senate Conference Committee met this week, the chance of an agreement before the April 25 deadline remained unlikely, according to Dairy Profit Weekly editor Dave Natzke.

 

Much of the current debate relates to the total cost of the 2007 Farm Bill, and how it will be paid for, he said, and the Bush administration, which reluctantly agreed to the one-week extension last week, said tax provisions of the legislation had not progressed enough, and that proposed spending levels exceeded the $10 billion increase agreed to by congressional leaders and the administration.

 

If negotiations aren't wrapped up by Friday, President Bush said he would seek a one-year extension of the 2002 Farm Bill, Natzke reported. With planting season getting underway in many parts of the country, Bush said farmers needed the extension to make planting and business decisions but House and Senate leaders were expected to ask for another short-term extension, perhaps a week or two, to try to iron out a final bill, according to Natzke.

 

Turning our attention to the grocery store, latest USDA figures and the Labor Department indicate food inflation is the worst in 17 years. Through February, the Consumer Price Index for all food was up nearly 5 percent compared to a year ago. Dairy product prices were up even more, increasing about 13 percent.

 

There was better news for consumers in March, according to Natzke. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said retail dairy product prices declined about 1 percent during the month, but remain about 13 percent more than a year earlier. March retail fluid milk prices dropped 2 percent and butter prices were down due to Easter sales specials. Cheese prices also declined slightly, he said.

 

Compared to food prices, increasing energy costs continue to hit consumers and farmers. Retail gasoline prices rose 7.5 percent in March, and are 26 percent higher than a year ago.


Slaughter Report
(April 25, 2008) USDA’s latest Livestock Slaughter report shows an estimated 215,100 dairy cows were slaughtered in March, up just 800 head from February, but 15,300 fewer than March 2007. Through the first three months of 2008, 665,000 head were culled, compared to 660,000 for the same period a year earlier.


NMPF Presses Congress For Passage of Free Trade Agreement
(April 24, 2008) National Milk is pressing Congress for passage of a pending Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with South Korea , now that it has announced that it will resume imports of U.S. beef. NMPF’s, Chris Galen, reported in Thursday’s DairyLine that the FTA was held up by the imposition of trade barriers to U.S. beef ever since the discovery of Mad Cow disease in the U.S. a few years ago.